CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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Colors here definitely seem uninspired. Not much vibrancy. So many leaves were off the trees early due to stress. There is some decent color, but mostly I see bare trees or brown, and still some green in the case of some of the oaks.
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Slight differences in the LR on the GFS- the big blue ball of doom for the 13th is gone. The negative 15-20C departures are now +3 lol. No more Barney. Then we really torch after that.
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It tries to do a bit of a phase job- definitely more dig in the NS- but positive tilt/progressive and it's too little, too late.
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This is a touchy setup to be fair- fast flow, cold pressing, plus a SS vort in the SW that could try to partially phase with NS energy as it ejects. That looks less likely on recent runs, and ofc that's what folks in NE are rooting for. This is good practice for us, because odds are no matter how it plays out, it's probably mostly if not all rain for this region. Not sure I saw any flat wave scenarios on the Euro ens members that had much more than a r-s mix on the northern fringe
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Gonna be fun around here this winter with the "new" GFS.
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Need to cash in over the next 2 weeks with fantastic cooperation on the Pacific side bringing the cold. Sense of urgency!! Good to see persistence in the LR with the favorable PNA/EPO/WPO. If the pattern plays out as advertised, there probably will be some relaxation towards the end of the month, which would be a good thing.
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Completely different context. QBO monitors the periodic shift in the zonal wind in the tropical stratosphere. These winds periodically shift between westerlies and easterlies. The easterly phase is associated with a weakening SPV, and potentially the development of HL blocking.
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0z Euro is flat, suppressed, and weak. Doesn't come together the same way in the upper levels. Precip gets as far north as SE PA. Verbatim maybe a R-S mix on the northern fringe. There are a significant number of ens members with a storm. The ones with legit snow almost all have it to our north favoring NE. These members develop a stronger coastal low further north. Mean total snow for extreme N MD is 0.8" through next Sat morning. Anywhere south of that is 0.1-0.2. The 2" line in N PA.
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lol @ devastate What a tool.
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Meanwhile, Happy Hour GFS delivers snow for our area with its "day after tomorrow" killer vortex on the 13th.
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Well if the bar is a few flakes in the air...then yeah sure. Veterans day(or before) snowstorms don't happen too often, even up your way.
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Lol right. It will trend to NNE, where the Euro ens has it. That makes too much sense though, so maybe NC can get snow in Nov..they 'stole' our early Dec storm last year after all.
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Yes it was suppressed at 12z, but it's trying.. a little harder at 18z. I am not buying it though, not in early Nov.
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I figured you did lol.
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Perpetually- as in constantly; never ending.
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QBO 30mb equatorial zonal wind continues to head towards neutral- but its doing so slowly. Oct value was 7.27, down from 8.25 in Sept. Moving in the right direction at least.
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Snow88 is perpetually confused. Thankfully he doesn't crap up our subforum with his dopey posts.
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Unfortunately for SNE snow weenies, they are likely going to be on the outside looking in.
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Quick glance at the 12z Euro ens mean snowfall is as expected- a moderate elevation event for N PA into NY state, central and northern NE- although like last run, there are hints of first flakes for our area.
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Fun to look at, but climo is pretty hostile in early November for anything legit. That being said, if the guidance is correct with these extreme h5 looks, it's not impossible that some parts of our region could see some frozen. Much more likely for N PA into central and N NE.
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Pretty damn impressive h5 look. I would call that a triple ridge bridge.. PNA/EPO/WPO, and the N Atlantic ain't no slouch either.
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Euro is really close to something for next Friday. Verbatim it snows on the western highlands and even N central MD
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What da? GFS advertising the Day after tomorrow around mid month..
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31. Looks like Sunday night will be the first legit freeze here.
