CAPE

There is that baseball team in Baltimore...they call em the Os.

Ok Eagles. WTF? You can't stumble, bumble, and fumble and beat the Pats. Get it together.

From what I have seen(and I don't go out of my way to read any of these dudes on twitter) he never wastes any time when it comes to sounding the bells for a "bad" pattern.

Ravens are bullies since soundly beating the cheaters.

Nothing alarming about the 12z EPS, unless you are looking for unseasonably warm weather.

I think the Ravens might actually be pretty good.

He seems to be a warminsta alarmist. He is quick to tweet and declare gloom and doom when a model run shows a SE ridge, even if it looks transient.

Given what the seasonal guidance has been depicting, the longer we see good looks in the AO/NAO domain on the LR guidance, the better. As most of us know, having a predominant a -AO is number one on the list for cold and snow chances in the DC area.

Why try a fake field goal on 4th and 4. You have LAMAR JACKSON. Jeez.

Yeah. No idea what all the fuss is about. Who knows if it's correct, but what has caught my eye on recent GEFS runs is the good look up top rolling into December.

This. Some of these twitter dweebs make weenies weenie out even more than usual. Webb lol.

He is annoying. It's one damn run lol. And actually I am not hating it.

Am I missing something? Are we talking today's 12z GEFS? I haven't seen it. 6z run looked good to me.

Yeah it changed quite a bit from 12z yesterday to 0z, then 6z went all in on a west based block. The big EPO ridge idea is more modest now too. Gotta like that look in the AO/NAO space towards the end though.

Might as well

I concur. But other than the last batch of leaves, I may be done my outdoor projects by then. Been outside most of the weekend in this raw cold and wind.

He totally does. I am sure he is a smart dude, but 'hidden' in many of his technical posts you can tell he is a bit of a frustrated snow weenie from the south.

The 7-10 day thing is just my general monitoring window this winter. As I have said probably too many times now, not a fan of the weeklies etc. If I discuss them it's either a subtle troll post, or something like the other night when I posted a couple panels because Bob requested them.

It is what it is. I am not going to engage in hand wringing over LR stuff. We will see how things evolve over the next 10 days, then go from there. For now, I don't see any major red flags.

I am pretty much sticking to monitoring the 7-10 day period on the ensembles. It was just a mention based on you kinda going there in your post. We, nor the guidance, just can't know what's going to happen 15 days from now.

I hope my completely objective posts on the LR don't contribute to inducing early reapings.

At the end of the 0z EPS run, the look is a bit Lots of blues up top. Who knows how the pattern will roll going forward. A bit of a reshuffle/mild period would not be unexpected or overly concerning. Hopefully it's not a move towards what the weeklies/climate models have been advertising.

Yeah the 3k NAM and Euro have a thump of snow for NE PA. Pocono chase?

"Off run". Toss it and move on, quickly. Otherwise you are probably taking a step towards a visit to the reaper's 'new and improved' complex.

I have good understanding of physics on relatively small scale systems. Fundamentally, oceans are a huge heat sink- a truly high thermal inertia system. The relationship/interaction/forcing elements between large bodies of water and the atmosphere is obviously a complex one. I don't profess to have a deep understanding of the linkage/relationships between the atmosphere, currents, and warming/cooling of large bodies of water. That is super large scale stuff. It's like an electrical engineer claiming to have a profound understanding of large scale electrostatic energy- i.e. lightning. A totally different ballgame.