CAPE

I guess i'm not. One reason is the tellies on the EPS runs lately have consistently shown both the AO and NAO trending to neutral as we get to Dec 1. So not too surprising the weeklies have both indices positive a week or 2 later. I also have little confidence that is correct, although playing the odds (given recent winters) it probably would not be a bad bet to make. If the currently advertised HL blocking does in fact verify per the current global ens guidance over the next 10 days, then I would expect the weeklies to adjust. My preference is to just take it 10 days or so at a time using the global ensembles, given the utter failure of the weeklies/climate models last winter. Using that metric, I like what I see going forward.

Thats one reason why I find them mostly useless. They are smoothed to the point of almost complete ambiguity. Some people will see those panels as pretty decent, and others will think they completely suck ass.

If you ignore the shaded anomalies and focus on the height lines it ain't too bad.

Not sure why you care lol. I know I don't. Give me a sec and I will post a couple panels tho. They aren't great, but I have seen worse.

As I, and others have said...given the favorable h5 looks advertised on recent LR guidance, this continues to be a "period of interest". Could be fun tracking times ahead.

If the QBO keeps trending to neutral/negative, combined with near solar min, favorable tropospheric forcing mechanisms that act to weaken the PV, and potentially weak Nino forcing, we may end up with a -AO and by association a -NAO. No one knows exactly how the HL look will evolve. Its difficult to predict at long lead times. I can see a case for some relatively short lived blocking in the near term, a relaxation, then a more significant NA block developing later in winter. Hopefully the PNA/EPO/WPO will be generally favorable when the NA is less so.

I agree. The super LR models are not worth more than the casual glance IMO. Just saying, what they are currently advertising in general is probably the mostly likely outcome given the persistence of a +NAO during the winter months in recent years.

The thing about the weeklies/seasonal/climate guidance- pretty much all depicting a +NAO moving forward- is they align with the persistence of the (+)NAO phase for winter going back many years. Just sayin'. It's like predicting warmer than avg temps for met winter. By default, you will probably be correct.

Ditto for the 12z EPS. Looks as good as the panel I posted this morning from the 0z run, if not better. eta: ^^^yeah like that

Because after Dec the winter was basically a torch. Probably could not have a worse Jan for cold/snow. Plus it followed an extremely cold Dec. It was quite the flip.

Don't recall the details but the pattern flipped in early Jan to complete suckage. eta- DCA had 15.3" that winter. 12.5" fell in Nov-Dec (9" in Dec). Nothing significant after that until March. Jan was an all out torch following a very cold Dec. Perfect I guess for those who want a cold, snowy, front loaded winter.

This was h5 leading up to T-day of 1989. Cold powder to right to the beaches. That was a great event for the coastal plain. 6" +. It can happen in late November.

T-day 1989 redux.

Continue to see favorable h5 looks around the 25th. Who knows if anything will come of it, and yeah lets hope we see something like this in another month or so.

This is pretty much my thinking. Nothing alarming at this point. Still most curious to see how the advertised NA blocking plays out. Would not be surprised if it verifies weaker than depicted, and does not persist into Dec. As I mentioned previously, I am not going to bother much with trying to glean anything meaningful from weeklies/climate/seasonal models. I will just continue to monitor the LR ens guidance daily to see how the h5 pattern is 'trending'.

Picked up a tenth of an inch of chilly rain overnight.

Mispillion and Burley Oak I am familiar with. Good stuff there. Might be looking for a new line of work in the next year or 2 if I take early retirement. I want your job.

He is right there with snow88.

Drinking a Bmore Hazy. True NE style juicy DIPA, brewed by Oliver Brewing in Baltimore. This is good stuff. I'll be getting more of this.

Yeah we literally just had a triple coupled PNA/EPO/WPO ridge bridge with the cold snap this week. I would say its reasonable to think we see more of that going forward.

The period centered on the 25th has and continues to look interesting on the GFS/GEFS. Coastal pops a bit too far north(nails SNE) this run, but that period has potential, esp given the advertised NA look.

Not too concerned with seeing "extreme" cold here in the near term. It rarely does us any good before mid Dec. There are some hints on the ens guidance of ridging trying to reestablish in the EPO domain, so there is that. We are all just trying to get a feel for the potential background state at this juncture, and seeing persistent troughing near the Aleutians and the lack of a SE ridge are good signs. We will see how things evolve in the HL/NA. Not seeing any indications yet of a raging +AO/NAO developing going forward.(other than most climate/ seasonal models suggesting it lol)

I don't think too much blocking is even remotely a concern at this point. A good start is to see if it materializes as advertised. Most likely we see a -NAO for the end of the month period. How negative it gets and how long it lasts is TBD. EPS is not as robust as the GEFS with the NA blocky look, and has been trending both the AO and NAO to neutral as we move into December. As always, we shall see.

Third string pounding the block.