CAPE

Yeah that would get some cold air into the Lower 48 for the new year. Probably be pretty transient with a nice cutter on the backside, but hey, gotta start somewhere.

Looks like Christmas eve may feature perfect weather for sitting around the fire pit with some holiday cheer.

Not if we have an active Pac/STJ. With a piece of the TPV nearby, it can shed off lobes and contribute to confluence/help get a wave to track underneath, esp in the absence of a block.

wabbits even..

I am hunting squirrel. Mice even.

Yeah I noticed that on the 12z GEFS yesterday and commented on it. TPV was migrating towards Hudson Bay at the end of the run. If we get the TPV a bit further south, it can work for us in the absence of sustained NA ridging, and at the same time wont inhibit its development.

Actually mostly snow here now and coming down moderately. A legit deck/car topper. Temp is 34.

Its pretty normal to not see any significant snow in Dec here, so this "unfavorable" period doesn't bother me at all. No signs of days and days in the 50s and 60s, so it will generally feel seasonable. I have not looked at the latest ensembles yet, but it wouldn't surprise me if something interesting pops up in the period after Xmas and before New Years.

Snow/sleet mix started falling here in the last 20 mins. Came in too late, and with a temp of 35 and upper levels warming, this wont amount to much more than a trace, as expected.

I have agreed with you on this. There wont be a "torch" in the sense of ground truth warmth, but with the Pac in hostile mode and warm upper levels (briefly lets hope) its a pretty bad look for snow chances over the next 10 days.

We lose the Atlantic though At least we should have some legit cold between the cutters.

Looks like we have a trend rather than just model noise now. Also looks like the TPV is re-positioning itself in a more favorable location.

@mappy

It will be interesting so see how this plays out. Sources: Terrell Suggs angling to be claimed by Ravens only https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28298112/sources-terrell-suggs-angling-claimed-ravens-only I think some team will claim him regardless, just to keep the Ravens from doing so. Ravens could clearly use a situational pass rusher, but who knows if they are willing to make a roster move at this point for a player who chose to leave in free agency for more money, and is well past his prime. Given Dean Pees in the DC for the Titans, and they could use his services in competing for a playoff spot, I expect they are the most likely team to claim him.

Goff is awful.

Pathetic showing by the Lambs.

Me? LOL I'm working for you dude.

Go Rams. They done good since the Ravens absolutely destroyed them.

Nice job Eagles!

Yeah it's pretty tough these days. Glad I am a Ravens fan.

Eagles need to dig in here. Its the freaking Redskins FFS. Cant have Dallas winning that division.

It's when we drink too much beer earlier than we should. Also describes the 18z GFS, which coincides.

It really wasn't all that sudden. And all that despair will be undone if HH somehow delivers a pre-Christmas snowstorm, even if it is wholly not believable.

Definitely some notable improvements on both the GEFS and EPS today. More so on the GEFS as compared to the 0z run, particularly the TPV sliding southeastward in the LR. Both showing signs in the EPO domain. Need a few more runs to discern noise from an actual favorable pattern progression.

Discussing depressing weather reality in the LR thread doesn't go over very well. Also less chance of sending panicky weenies off the ledge, although that is definitely not a concern of mine.