CAPE
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Seems like the PV intensity is going to wax and wane this winter. Looks like its going to be on the strong/consolidated side and live up near the pole over the next couple weeks. Hopefully beyond that we see more perturbations with some developing height rises in the high latitudes. It's definitely a tad discouraging seeing all that blue up top going forward on the means, but it is what it is.
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Exactly. Much is made of the sun angle thing, but the reality is it rarely stays cold for long after it snows in these parts. Even in our epic winter of 2009-10, with lowest sun angle and 20+ inches of snow on Dec 18th, there was not much left by Xmas.
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27 here with some freezing fog/mist. Pretty cool and eerie looking.
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Looking through the 0z EPS members, I see 10 or so that have light/moderate frozen for our region between Jan 1 and 7. Not a strong signal, but that period still has potential for some sort of a well timed modest wave to track underneath after a cold front, or a front end slop to rain deal. In this pattern the cold will be fleeting so we will need the usual good timing and luck.
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Not sure I agree. There is the tendency for EC/SE ridging showing up on the ensembles in the LR. It's not a stationary/persistent feature on the means, but given the 500 mb pattern being advertised(+AO/+NAO/westward displaced EPAC ridge), it would not be surprising if it ends up more of a fixture than currently depicted.
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Apparently people have been unAmerican for over 50 years. Ofc if Fox newz says there is a war on Christmas, I guess it must be true.
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Happy Holidays to you!
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Both the EPS and GEFS are building heights in the EPO space towards day 15, but it's a bit too far west. There will be a mechanism to get cold air delivery into Canada, but we will probably need to be patient here. Hopefully the -EPO is real, and the long wave pattern progresses eastward. Verbatim the mean trough will be in the western US with a west based EPO ridge, and with a +NAO, there will a tendency for a persistent SE ridge, and a storm track to our NW.
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23 this morning with heavy frost. Might be the last time it will be below freezing until the new year, although it may get just below 32 tonight.
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Cold and frosty morning. I squinted a bit and It kinda looked like a covering of snow. Not a white Christmas, but better than waking up to rain. Another great weather day ahead. Hope everyone enjoys the holiday with friends and family. Perfect fire pit day with some Christmas cheer.
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Was frosty here earlier, but the temp has shot up since 5am. Was 28 for a low here, now 41. A bit of a southerly flow ahead of the weak cold front moving in. Nice day on tap.
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Here is h5 for the first week of Jan from the 0z EPS run. I've seen better lol. 0z GEFS has a bit more ridging out west and normal h5 heights for the east coast for the same period, with lower height anomalies just to the NW over the GLs. Overall colder look.
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First week of Jan continues to look active on the GEFS with some cold around. As depicted it could be an interesting period. Fwiw, the snow means the past few runs have looked decent for the window beginning around Jan 3. Given the GFS propensity for overdoing cold in the LR, not getting overly excited about it yet, and the EPS isn't as enthusiastic.
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Good to see the Ravens were quick to make the decision to sit Lamar and some other key starters for the Steelers game. This team is focused and on a mission, so it's an easy call to risk being a bit 'rusty' over a possible serious injury in a meaningless game. I don't want the Steelers getting in, but I think the Titans will beat the Texans, who also are locked in and have nothing to play for. If that happens, the Steelers go home.
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Its gonna be cold after Jan 1. Wonder if DT could advise me on the chances of this verifying. Thinking of heading to J-ville for a chase.
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Not gonna see much 50-50 low action with a +NAO. 50-50 highs are going to be more likely. The currently advertised LR h5 pattern is pretty much the inversion of what we want to see. Is it correct? Who knows.
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Not pretty. The +AO/+NAO/+EPO trifecta provides literally no mechanism for cold air delivery into the mid latitudes. Hopefully it is a temporary state, or the guidance is currently overstating that look.
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Dude. Chill. He played with no signs of a serious injury after being dinged a little.
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It definitely can happen. But otoh, you play your key players in an absolutely meaningless game and one or more sustains a serious injury, then what? Fans and sports media kill you and you might lose in the first round anyway. You trust the coaches and players to prepare and be ready to go, well rested. Should not be a problem.
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What gave you that idea? Honestly, I am pretty objective. Took me a long time to wrap my head around the fact that this team is pretty darn good.
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No reason in the world to play Jackson a single play next week. Should be able to handle the Steelers at home with RG3 under center.
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After a super slow start by Ravens standards,. that second quarter was a WOW. Mastery running the 2 min offense for TDs- TWICE. Vintage Jackson. He has all the skills + the intangibles. After the initial drive in the third quarter, it was pretty much lights out for the Browns.
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Yeah it builds the NAO ridge week 4-5, so who knows how real that is. Looks somewhat positive/neutral before that. Hopefully the EPO ridge gets into a better spot, because I still have my doubts about a sustained NA block, and as you said without it we fight the tendency for SE ridging given the advertised the EPO location verbatim.
