CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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It is better, but still an initial western track, coastal looks to form close to our latitude, and maybe being on the backside of the departing HP to our east has some influence in screwing up the mid levels..
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I am rooting for snow, anyway I can get it, and as soon as it can possibly occur. There is no trading this storm for the next one. Trust me, y'all can root for whatever you want and it will have zero impact on the ultimate outcome.
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Given the streak my yard is on- failing every way imaginable last winter- it is pretty sad.
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0z EPS indicates coastal development but takes a primary to our west. Probably a mix to rain deal, but as Showme pointed out, its not too far off from something more on the frozen side.
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12/11: 0.5"
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That stuff is above my pay grade, but I have read some technical papers discussing some of the correlations. Having a near solar min, QBO heading towards neutral(then presumably negative) as we move towards mid winter, and the atmosphere behaving more Nino-ish, should all favor some persistence with HL blocking, esp for late winter. Kind of a bonus that we are seeing the tendency for higher heights in the NAO domain and 50-50 low persistence early in winter.
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I just looked at the 0z Euro mean and members, and its not far off from being a decent event, esp for NW areas. Need a bit stronger block/50-50 low combo, and keep some separation between the TPV and the southern shortwave to keep it underneath. As it stands, the primary low tracks a bit too far north, and the favored area for all frozen is just to the north of our region.
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Yeah we discussed this a few days ago. I never felt like we were heading towards a prolonged PAC flood. Been seeing indications of rising heights up top for a while now on the means. There has been some persistence now going well back into November with some of the key features(e.g. Aleutian low), and an overall propensity to keep things on the cold side. Looks generally cold and active going forward. If next week's event doesn't pan out, it may help to set things up for the period before Xmas.
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You got twice as much as me. Guess you got death banded.
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Looking out into LR fantasy-land, where we don't fuss over the details, I like where the pattern appears to be going here. Great HL look and the deep trough off the west coast evolves into a broad trough with ridging over the top.
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Yeah those soundings were odd looking. Also the 2 precip maxes looked unusual.The eastern max seems to be pretty verifying well. Most guidance was pinpointing the best area of forcing over DE and esp NJ. Radar returns look impressive right now. Might be some legit 2"+ amounts there.
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Considering it was a minor event of short duration, and with it coming behind the front with CAA and tendency for drying, the guidance did pretty good in general. The one nitpick is temps- most guidance had temps here 34-35 while the snow was falling. Had me envisioning white rain. The temperature here dropped quickly behind the front though, and when the sleet/snow started falling, it was right at 32. Models did indicate a shallow warm nose aloft so the sleet at the beginning was expected.
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Winding down here now. Looks like about a half inch. Looks pretty out there. Oddly, temps weren't an issue. Needed more qpf.
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Woke up to sleet about an hour ago. All snow now. Had a heavy burst with big flakes, but its lightened up a bit now. Solid coating on the ground, car , and deck. When I went to bed the temp was 49. Its now right at 32. A bit surprised.
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Can we get a few radar hallucinations up in here?
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Goldsboro UHI.
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Oh yeah. I'm feelin' it.
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After a high of 58, its down to 50!!!
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Yeah that is pretty much a big nothing for everywhere. Verbatim it might be a sloppy inch or so on Parrs.
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They have Trace Mcsorley, who was so impressive they had to keep a third QB. He is a poor man's Jackson, and more talented than RG3 at this point. Ravens have 3 QBs who can run this offense, which is a nice luxury to have.
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If they play they way they are capable, he will sit the second half against the jets, and have 10 days to "rest". And the pundits will get their wish- to see RG3 get substantial playing time
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LOL at these people on the ESPN talk shows discussing the possibility of Lamar not playing Thursday. OFC he will play. A sore quad, which is probably overstated, wont keep him out. And he practiced today. The angle- RG3 is a capable backup and it would be cool to see him get a start. GTFOH.
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^Problem with that southern/eastern 'band' is temps. That map might be close to representative if we weren't talking warm, soggy ground and surface temps in the 34-35 degree range. I would totally take it verbatim if we had cold ground and temps around 30. As it is, anywhere SE of the fall line is looking at a half inch or less with extremely poor accumulating efficiency, unless some intense banding sets up overhead.
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18z 3Km NAM has the Parrs Ridge bullseye.
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I am just hoping to see some splatty wet flakes on the windshield driving to work tomorrow morning.
