CAPE

I was just being facetious. We are in fail mode by default lol. I am always impressed by the ens guidance in general inside 10 days. Especially useful when there is a less stable/predictable pattern- i.e higher uncertainty- where the op runs alone can be nearly useless due to the run to run variability.

Not impressive at all when 80% of the time we are in a fail pattern.

It's a little hard to get a sense of it looking at a composite, but a sustained -NAO (and often a quasi-stationary 50-50 low underneath) produces a true "block" in the flow- basically the opposite of a progressive pattern. Along with a favorable storm track and a more sustained eastern trough, it 'forces' a strengthening coastal low to move more slowly to the NE or ENE under the block.

Many here have probably seen this CWG article by Wes from a few winters ago, but for those who have not, it is very good and explains/discusses the roles of the key indices(AO, NAO, EPO, ENSO, etc) and their impacts on cold and snow for the DC area, and includes insightful scatter diagrams. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/11/12/what-the-different-weather-patterns-might-mean-for-snow-this-winter/

For now I will hang my hat on the CFS weeklies. Starts to shift the long wave pattern around the 20th to a gradient look, then develops a favorable EPO ridge and deep trough in the east into Feb. With a +NAO it would probably feature NW tracking lows followed by cold/dry.

That blocking ridge in the Pac looks legit and stable on the means. At some point the pattern will break down. Hopefully we don't waste most of Jan in the process.

++AO be damned. Indicators schmindicators. We just cant know. We could very well have a MA blizzard by Jan 10!.

Most everyone here understands we would need a legit NAO block to overcome a monster NPAC ridge in the vicinity of the Aleutians , other than Mursky apparently. This is pretty straightforward stuff. He also doesn't seem to realize that this is model discussion- as advertised/depicted by current ens guidance. Ofc no one fukking knows. Jerksey, with 28 posts, can go pound sand.

Patriots LOL. Dolphins LOL What a total fucck up.

14-2 Most rushing yards in a single season in NFL history.

I think the Raven's second and third stringers could still go 10-6 and make the playoffs.

The early Jan period has looked like our first best chance of timing something for some frozen for a while now. Several days ago it looked more like the 4th or 5th, now its a bit later. It is pretty much all we got other than hand wringing over the possibility of an awful pattern that may or may not verify going forward. That said, this modest threat still lies outside of 7 days and could easily evaporate or morph into something much different. As currently depicted by the major globals, it is about as good a look as we can expect given the general 500 mb pattern, and one that favors something tracking underneath with some decent cold air in place.

6z GEFS is in for a little something around day 10. Seems to favor southern parts of the region looking at the snow map.

Yeah if that ridge stays parked near the Aleutians it will be a big battle to keep the SE ridge from wrecking hopes and dreams of snow weenies in the MA and SE. Hopefully the 'hints' of NA blocking(yet again) we are seeing on guidance is real, and it would likely take a stout west-based block to do the trick unless something significant changes out west.

One thing we need is some tweakage in the EPO domain. Probably need to lose or shift that trough near Okhotsk.

Speaking of hostile Pac, and for those who like to use the term "blocking", that advertised EPAC ridge near the Aleutians is a monster of a block in the the LR. The GEFS attempts to build some ridging into the NAO domain(EPS not so much) later in the run, .but it would literally take a strong NA block to counter that beast out in the Pacific in order to get lower heights into the eastern US.

Few shots from Lewes and Cape Henlopen. Great day.

You live in a very pretty and comfortable area. Love the town of Lewes. Only downside is not much snow most winters lol.

Heading to Cape Henlopen State Park on this beautiful, sunny, 50 degree late December day. Probably pretty close to the average high temp for the immediate coast on this date.

Take advantage of the lovely weather. If its not gonna snow, I am all over this. In Rehoboth now and heading to Lewes later for more fun and craft beer consumption.

It's a disaster. @Ji

Best to just drink more and worry less about the upcoming advertised h5 pattern. Its just not a pretty picture no matter how optimistic you are. Not to say it wont look more favorable in the near future. We all know how this works. Stuff can change pretty quickly.

When does the GFS/GEFS not show big time cold in the long range? I am still looking forward to that Jacksonville blizzard.

Seems like the PV intensity is going to wax and wane this winter. Looks like its going to be on the strong/consolidated side and live up near the pole over the next couple weeks. Hopefully beyond that we see more perturbations with some developing height rises in the high latitudes. It's definitely a tad discouraging seeing all that blue up top going forward on the means, but it is what it is.

Exactly. Much is made of the sun angle thing, but the reality is it rarely stays cold for long after it snows in these parts. Even in our epic winter of 2009-10, with lowest sun angle and 20+ inches of snow on Dec 18th, there was not much left by Xmas.