CAPE

Latest CFS runs continue to depict h5 +height anomalies over the high latitudes for late Fall into the first part of winter.

That map is ambiguous, and quite frankly, useless.

I was in the 4-10" area. Yeah 8" of wet snow at 32 degrees piled up here early on, but the second half of the storm was 40 degree driving rain. An historic storm for the interior for sure, esp the mountains.

Oh I agree. It was just a heavy wet snow to rain deal here though. Then all the waterlogged slush froze solid as the cold air came back in at the end. Probably not even a top 20 storm here as winter storms go. This is a MBY business, as we are all well aware of here.

That storm sucked on all of the coastal plain of the MA.

Beach snow chase redux.

This We thought we had become NNE lol. My yard did "okay". At least had low end warning criteria snow(5"), and lots of blowing and drifting in the days that followed. Places just east of here by 10 miles had double that amount though. I really wasn't mad at all, given the previous winter results, and knowing I was about 30 miles from getting nothing.

It was a really good storm for a large area. Too much sleet at the height along/east of I-95 though. Made up for it with the great CCB snows on the backside.

Wrong storm. There were 2 being discussed. I was referring to December 2010.

The end result is it was a typical Nina screw job for most of the MA. East of the bay there was some snow(5" here) but not the foot that was supposed to fall. It was close- places in DE had 8-10, and then ofc NJ and points NE got hammered.

Gotta give the guy some credit- he manages to claim victory even as his 'discovery' fails over and over. As long as it snows a lot somewhere in the US, and at least one other weather geek on social media mentions Polar Vortex, winner!

Who is excited for SAI tracking season? Right around the corner! Nothin' like good ol' snake oil.

His data was pretty flawed as PSU pointed out. But what he was attempting to do as I recall was to make a correlation between a severely -QBO through the winter months during a Nina(may have been specifically a weak Nina) and colder temps in the east. I don't believe he was claiming it would be snowier than normal, but I really don't care enough to go back and look.

Yeah I was just having a little fun with it. December isn't that far away now, so its worth casually watching these models over the next couple months to see whats being offered up for a general long wave pattern. We know the CFS vacillates from one end of the spectrum to the other at this range, but if we start to see more favorable than unfavorable looks, it will at least keep hope alive for awhile.

CFS has sniffed it out!

Ya gotta love the swings on the CFS runs. It now has HL blocking for DJF December with the epic 'savior' Baffin block. For January and Feb the Pacific actually looks decent plus the -NAO persists. The upcoming runs will trend back towards reality.

Nice overview based on the current data/climate guidance. A lot has to be in our favor for an average to above average snowfall season in the MA, outside of the western highlands. At this juncture, there really isn't much to like in that regard. Almost every major driver/index looks as if it will be the antithesis of what we need here. We had this situation last winter, and the worst possible outcome resulted. You mentioned the solar min, and I concur that is a nebulous influence, and will certainly not offset all the other factors that may align to inhibit the development of any persistent HL blocking. What we hope for are the inevitable variations in a mostly "bad" pattern, and a bit of luck to take advantage for a fluke event or 2. Since we had zero of that last winter, maybe we are due a little.

You should get used to this possibility unless you plan to relocate. Or be more realistic with expectations and use median instead of mean.

We have had several good storms this summer, and quite a few with frequent lightning. I had that one back in July that blew a tree down. Sometimes we can go through a whole season with nothing but lame garden variety storms.

Not sure what round it is but it can stop anytime now lol..I think it finally has. 3.4" 2 day total of 4.85" eta- had another storm after midnight, so the 'severe' event total is 3.9", and 5.35" since Wed night.

I know this is not DC- but I am basically on the same latitude and at low elevation- and I can think of 3 warning level events right off the top of my head in the last 2 Nina winters. The one in March I think did have some blocking, but the other 2 didn't. They were both coastal scrapers with 10" plus at the beaches, about 6 here, and little to nothing for DC. Just dumb luck I suppose. eta- being further East/NE does help in a Nina with catching the edge of a Miller B sometimes. Happened here in Dec 2010 (the storm never to be mentioned). Got 5" or so from that, and there was 10+ a few miles to my east, but that period did feature a -NAO IIRC.

This one is a banger. Sounds/feels like bombs dropping out there.

Hearing more thunder to the west. Lets see what round 2 can do.

Looks like a wrap for here. Lots of rumbles and a couple of booms, and 0.30" of rain. After last night's big storm, this is perfectly fine with me. 1.75" since last evening, and no wind impacts.

Sounds exactly like what I had last night. Way more fun than today.