CAPE

Barely on the edge of this one. Some impressive lightning and booms of thunder though. Looks like Easton may get it pretty good.

Blocking would be lovely, but as we all know, its pretty rare during winter lately. We could see something transient ofc, but if this winter is to feature a colder period, I am inclined to think it will probably require a favorable EPAC for a time, something like Jan of 2018. No one in DC area should expect more than a low end warning event or 2 at best, and hopefully a few 1-2" deals. That would be a major win after the debacle of last winter.

QBO won't make much difference. Its impacts are nebulous imo, and even more so in Nina. The AO/NAO is pretty much guaranteed to be positive for the winter months based on persistence and general correlation to Nina. Not to say we wont have a few periods where it is less positive or neutral. Maybe the solar minimum will save the day(winter).

The thinking is more linear as it moves eastward towards the coast, and reading the discussion from Mount Holly they think the most likely place for a tornado is in Cecil over into Newcastle in DE up into SE PA. Possibly some interaction with the warm front lying across that area, backing the flow some is my guess. Bigger overall threat will be damaging straight line winds, with fairly strong winds aloft and decent Dcape. Bowing segments generally produce straight line winds but can also produce tornadoes as vorticity sometimes develops on the north/south end of the line. How far north are you?

Yeah a CanSIPS Dec followed by a CFS Jan and Feb would be pretty decent. A month from now we can reanalyze.This is fun.

Latest discussion from SPC-

The latest CFS runs now have a torch for December lol, but then a pretty good look for January- similar to above but better- deeper trough and hints of a bit of HL help. Looks pretty similar to h5 back in Jan of 2018 when we had the cold period(and the bomb cyclone). February doesn't look terrible either. All just for fun ofc at this juncture with these climate models.

6z 3km NAM suggestive of super cells transitioning to QLCS. Has what appears to be a bowing segment with a cyclonic head developing and moving towards the lower eastern shore.

If @JakkelWx gets a super cell over his yard I'll go chase it though.

Looks like its over here, No wind, which is fine with me. Impressive deluge and back end electrical storm with the following cell. 1.45" Y'all can have tomorrow.

Incredible thunder and lighting with this second part. Just unplugged all my high end audio gear.

Denton is gonna get clocked.

Getting in on the edge of that severe area here now. Booming house rattling thunder.

The sw edge of this line moving through Wye Mills looks potent. I think that will slide south of me, Booming thunder now. 0.92" so far

Nothing severe here but absolutely pouring with some T & L.

Looked great at 12z for I-95 and points east.

Mount Holly updated AFD for severe threat this evening and tomorrow-

Yeah pretty much all the CAMs are onboard for tomorrow. Might be legit.

September edition of the CanSIPS is out. My glass half full overview- Overall it looks less torchy for the winter months than the previous run. For December, not a half bad look, and verbatim just about average temps. At h5 the positive heights in the EPAC are such that the mean ridge is decently placed..close enough for perhaps a +PNA at times. Beyond that the heights shift westward in Jan, but still not a terrible look for the east coast- maybe a gradient type pattern. By Feb the EPAC ridge is a monster, max +height anomalies south of the Aleutians, and whatever winter there was would be over. Up top, December looks like a neutral AO/NAO, Jan a somewhat +AO/NAO, Feb ++AO/NAO. So not much help in the high latitudes.

Slight risk today. From the Mount Holly AFD this morning- With sufficient CAPE and fairly strong shear expected (30-40 kt 0-6 km bulk wind difference) along with alarmingly high values of storm- relative helicity (150+ J/kg), I am concerned storms will be capable of producing severe wind gusts and possibly a couple of tornadoes. As alluded to, the threat is conditional on the degree of instability that develops, but the tropical nature of the vertical profiles suggests to me that CAPE will need not be that large to promote an environment favorable for organized/rotating storms. SPC maintains a slight risk of severe storms today across the entire region, and this seems reasonable to me.

If the NAM is correct, Saint Michaels may be close to 20" for the month by tomorrow. Sitting at 15.62" currently.

A snippet from the updated AFD from Mt Holly- Hot and humid into the early evening hours ahead of an approaching shortwave. Showers and thunderstorms over central Pennsylvania will continue to track east, and additional storms will fire up ahead of that main area. Temperatures remain in the 80s to around 90 with surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s. As a result, surface-based CAPE values are up around 2000 J/kg across Delmarva and from 1500-2000 J/kg across southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania. Across Delmarva and southern New Jersey, DCAPE values are up around 1000 J/kg. 0-6 KM Bulk Shear is minimal, generally around 25 kt, but up to 40 kt across far northern New Jersey. Finally, PWATs are from 1.5- 2.0 inches. Thunderstorms moving into the unstable airmass, especially across the southern half of the forecast area, will become strong to severe, with damaging winds and heavy rain the most likely impacts.

Are you seeing a low level dust cloud kicked up as the heavy rain falls?

Too much inverted V. This will probably congeal nicely on the lower eastern shore.

Storms dropping southward to the east, storms dropping southward to the west... nada in between. Mostly what the latest runs of the mesos were advertising.