CAPE

Sun has broken out here and temp up to 69. Should hit 75 easily unless the front sneaks in early. I doubt it over here.

Capital Weather Gang article with a potpourri of winter outlooks. DT is thinking back-loaded and above normal snowfall for DC. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/10/21/washington-dc-winter-forecasts-2020/?fbclid=IwAR0KbqBko3L1eyFPIZbWE5vr9l-LDSN2NUloXhSlZxFWXhsDGyG7lWz-j4w

I'll take Sunday even if its cloudy with a stiff breeze and some showers. It ends this warm, stagnant pattern, and even though we ridge again for the beginning of the week, it won't be as warm and will be short lived as the trough finally heads east. Looks like a decent chance of a more significant wet period late next week, with cooler temps into next weekend.

We generally need some HL 'help' to get average or above average snow. In the absence of a -AO/NAO, a -EPO can get it done.

There is a correlation between the AO phase and the ENSO state, and the AO is the index most highly correlated to snowfall for DC-BWI. The NAO is almost always in the negative phase when there is a negative AO, so the NAO is a factor. I don't have the numbers, but I would bet a predominately -AO for DJF is more likely during a Nino than a Nina. Not sure if there is a large enough sample size, but a Moderate, CP-based Nino might have the highest correlation to a -AO. @psuhoffman can probably give the numbers off the top of his head.

Looking forward to a fall-like day on Sunday, with temps in the 50s, in between episodes of persistent east coast ridging. Maybe the actual cold front will finally make it here by the end of next week, with some rain and seasonably chilly temps. Typical La Nina pattern. We should all get used to this.

Bad here this morning. Most challenging drive in this week by far.

GFS is back to advertising that "high impact" event for late next week. Heavy rain with some decent wind with the coastal low, and maybe some mountain snow showers on the backside.

Sunny here in Easton. Feels like mid June out there.

Another day around 80 with dewpoints in the 60s.

It will be interesting to see if the extended range GEFS is on to something, as it continues to advertise increasing h5 heights up top, and especially in the NAO domain towards mid November. Also keeps the Pacific (puke) in check. Some of the MJO forecasts have the tropical convection moving into the W Pac, and then possibly into Phase 8, so that may give some credibility to the idea of increasing high latitude h5 heights down the line.

The guidance continues to forecast lower heights up top on our side of the pole (+AO/NAO) going forward, which is not very conducive to getting cold air delivery into our region. Maybe by the end of next week we see a decent cool down with a flat ridge building in the western US, but that looks pretty iffy.

Outside of Sunday when we briefly get into a cooler E/NE flow, it wont feel much like fall for at least the next week. The eastern ridge quickly builds back early next week, with warmer temps.

Good ol' CFS at range.. December would be acceptable too, with a +PNA, and the -EPO taking shape. Not the likeliest of outcomes in a moderate Nina.

Patchy drizzle before 8am. The drizzle could be heavy at times. Widespread dense fog, mainly before 10am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 77.

Afternoon AFD from Mt Holly- The relatively quiet weather continues into early Saturday before the front finally approaches later Saturday bringing a chance of showers arriving from west to east late Saturday into Saturday night. Beyond this time the forecast grows increasingly uncertain as there are differences between the forecast models and from one model run to the next. But in the big picture, the baroclinic zone looks to set up along the east coast through early to mid next week as the front washes out or stalls over the area. Additional waves look to move north along it bringing chances for showers/rain most days as the pattern becomes more active and wetter.

Just my opinion, but I think it will take some -EPO episodes to save us from another generally crap winter. I don't see any significant indicators suggestive of a predominant negative AO/NAO, other than possibly solar min, and that correlation is nebulous at best.

lol It's probably neutral, not that it matters at hour 816 on a GEFS run.

^That little blue spot off the MA coast is probably a blizzard.

Since we can, why not? The super duper extended GEFS looks blocky for much of November.

Surprise!

Its way out there, but this could be a hefty rain producer, with some potential for severe, and maybe some snow on the backside in the western highlands.

Meanwhile, nice thump of heavy wet snow today for Minneapolis area. First legit snowfall there I believe.

Euro won. Mid to upper 70s the rest of the week.

The NAO is notoriously unpredictable at long leads. One thing we have to go on is persistence. The NAO has been predominately positive during winter for many years.