CAPE
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12z GEFS yesterday had an impressive signal for snow for the 25th-30th period. Since then it has deteriorated significantly. The general pattern being advertised is pretty decent overall, but there are little "flaws" showing that shift around between model cycles.
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All these maps do is remind me that I live 150 miles too far south for snow 90% of the time.
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Schreck et al.
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Pretty significant improvement on the 12z GEFS for the 25-30th window.
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Higher heights over the Canadian Maritimes rather than lower heights(ideal) is the biggest issue with this threat at as depicted at range. The track is about perfect, and everything else is decent enough, and there is plenty of time for features to get tweaked a bit, hopefully in the favorable direction.
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I hear ya. At this point I am just going to watch and see how the new long wave pattern actually establishes beyond this weekend. Hopefully we start to see more hits pop up on future runs. I think the +heights in central Canada will build further NW going forward. Can start to see that occurring towards the end of the 0z GEFS run.
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We are talking about means at range dude. The overriding theme on all guidance, including the CFS, is the improvement on the PAC side with the PNA and the EPO going forward. As you know, classically good looks that show up at D15 rarely look the same on a mean when that gets inside D10.
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More likely with the pattern change barely underway for this coming weekend. There is a bit of a signal for that period, although it could be colder. Plenty of time.
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This looks like a 'much better pattern' than the garbage one we have had the past 2+ weeks to me, and pretty much matches what has been advertised across guidance lately.. We will have to wait and see if the upcoming period produces any significant snow, but this is an h5 look that could get it done.
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This is generally my feeling. Some say bring the qpf and take their chances on cold. Ofc this is completely an IMBY game, and if ya live on the coastal plain, having an antecedent cold air mass in place is usually key to getting a legit snow event.
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Luckily the GFS depiction of the baroclinic zone being in the vicinity of Bermuda is probably not correct lol.
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Euro says It might be time for a beach chase next week.
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Just another op run at range but nice to continue to see looks like this one. Verbatim it gives us some snow from a clipper. Roll that forward and it might be snowing in the SE.
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Keep an eye on the secondary coastal development. 0z GEFS is pretty aggressive with this feature, and a bit further south than the EPS. Could extend wintry precip by keeping the lower levels colder, esp for interior/northern areas.
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This is pretty happy hour-ish.
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I noticed that. The classic h5 look period is right where we want it at this juncture though on the means.
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I am considering it. NE PA looks like a decent spot and isn't too far.
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Yeah HH not so happy. Another op run down. Next.
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Low track and transfer a bit further southeast this run. Something to keep an eye on.
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GEPS has been doing this and has been a bit further south with the low track in general. Still a long way to go. You mentioned the confluence to our NE and that probably is the key area to watch in future runs. The strength of that will make or break snow/ice chances for the MA.
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I'm going to message DT and ask if this is meteorologically possible.
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The general look is ok, but verbatim we would be fighting cold/dry, and any wave that amps would tend to take a NW track without perfect timing. Might be a decent pattern for several smaller events.
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I prefer the squirrel-acorn correlation.
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Euro is not nearly as cold, and we have the well known GFS bias of being too cold in the LR. Still a ways to go.
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Yes it has evolved to something a bit different on the means. Not surprising, and not necessarily bad. See Showme's post above. Given where I live, my interest continues to lie primarily from 20th and forward. eta- I will keep an eye on next weekend, because if it looks like a decent event in the nearby highlands, I am in chase mode.
