CAPE

Nothing can save this winter in my mind. It has barely felt like winter, and for the past few weeks my brain thinks its March. I literally went to Lowes the other day to buy some outside plants, only to find that ofc they had nothing, lol.

Yeah it wouldn't take much at this point. Most places on the MA coastal plain including Philly are sitting at less than an inch.

Already hearing some around here.

Your attachments folder is probably at 100%. Delete stuff. Or... Copy and paste. I do it all the time.

Its ours. Nice fit.

Productive LR discussion?

It has been a long time and they are rusty. Help them out.

We lookin' good overall.

It's dead , Jim.

HA that is a bit coincidental! He used to live in High Point, then moved out to Oak Ridge. Nice area.

Hope it works out. Btw my brother lives NW of Greensboro. Quite a storm there in Dec 2018. 14".

Yeah we are in the range now where we are not likely to see big changes. Looks like a pretty weak wave that will get kicked out without doing much damage, even for places further south. If I had to guess now I would say an inch or 2 for central/eastern NC would be the max.

I see 10 right off the bat that are 100% believable.

LOL. That 2018 storm was a true southern slider, and that's about the only similarity to what may happen later this week. That storm featured a juiced up wave moving into a much colder air mass with legit suppression, versus this weak strung out pos in a flat, progressive flow. That storm produced 10-15" of cold powder in central NC. At best this storm will produce a few sloppy inches in those areas. And yeah it is a long shot for our region, but still far enough out to monitor given some recent runs sharpening that vort. At best we are probably talking a period of light snow, maybe a coating, but we got little else to track in the next week to 10 days lol.

Me thinks he is trolling. And if he thinks the potential late week 'event' bears any resemblance to that ...

Not here. Dec 2017 we had a decent little event.

Except in July. Can never buy a raindrop then.

At this point the high bar is some light, insignificant snow from DC to Dover on the northern fringe. The max would be 1-3 inches down in NC to perhaps SE VA. This will not be much of a storm until offshore of the SE in all likelihood.

GFS is ever so slightly better. Probably noise.

Not as sharp/far west as the ICON at hour 72.

GFS looks a tad sharper at hour 60. Similar to the ICON.

This is what the GFS looked like at 12z. Lets see if it can do better for HH.

Yup. But its close. As was the EURO at 0z.

This is why the ICON looks good at the surface, and what I mentioned in my post above. This is the feature to watch.

This has never been more true than this winter. We have seen these advertised set ups end up working out great for N PA into NNE. In this case however, its hard to see how that happens. The flow is so progressive and flat, and the southern energy is on the weak side, with any significant development occurring offshore. Perfect set up for the MA to get screwed a different way lol.