CAPE

Congrats @losetoa6

I never start threads. This might end well.

We are approaching the cliff. Lets all drive off together. Start us off @Weather Will . What do the latest one inch snow prob maps show? We in the 10% range?

Chickweed is in mid March form.

A couple summers ago I had bluebird doing it. He left when I hung the big eyed balloons, and I never saw him after that. The Cardinals seem much more persistent.

Oh I know all about this. Get one every few summers- it will just keep battling itself, banging into windows, and crapping everywhere. I am never lucky enough to have one bash its own brains in though lol. You really think they would. I found these scary "beach ball" things that have big, exaggerated eyes on them, and they work well. Looks a bit weird when you see them hanging on the house though. Kinda like Voodoo shit. But that usually still won't deter them completely- they just find another 'target'. The one I had last year found the plastic chrome trim on the lower grille of my Jeep. It spent all summer launching itself into that lol. Its only the males that do it. The one I had last summer a lot of the time would have its mate sitting there on the ground watching him. Like "Hey babe look how tough I am fighting this dude to keep him away from you".

Just to expand the futility area a bit, Philly is at 0.3". Their worst snowfall season was 1972-73, recording a trace. As of now, this winter would rank second, just ahead of 1997-98, with 0.8".

Latest EPS forecast could very well be "wrong". Thing is, I simply made a post stating what it is currently depicting, and that it wasn't good. Never claimed it was going to verify. No hitching of wagons. Now straighten your panties- they be all bunched up.

C'mon. A met as experienced as murky knows the CFS nails these indices far more often than the EPS. CFS is literally a model of consistency. Almost always verifies. Hardly ever vacillates.

No need. He is a pompous azz and he isn't fooling anyone here. LOL 30 year met.

Might not work out. Who is doing the hitching here? Apparently you love the advertised EPS h5 look- at least enough to troll PSU.

Latest EPS MJO forecast in the LR- after briefly getting into phase 7, wave dies out then looks to re-emerge in phase 5/6. That wont help much.

You claim you are a met right? Then you understand climo. NE doesn't need all the stars aligned to get a good result.

Check this out. Good overall presentation on NAM/ENSO/NAO and solar activity, and specifically addresses the solar/NAO correlation. Probably not what many would expect over the long term. http://www.issibern.ch/teams/interplanetarydisturb/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/Asikainen_03_2014.pdf

-(-NAO)

I took a peek this morning and the GEFS and EPS both have the AO trending towards neutral, and the NAO going slightly negative. Nothing is locked in up top though, and no signs of a sustained -AO or -NAO. Look at h5 on the 6z GEFS at the end, and the TPV is over Baffin with a ++NAO look.

12z GEFS yesterday had an impressive signal for snow for the 25th-30th period. Since then it has deteriorated significantly. The general pattern being advertised is pretty decent overall, but there are little "flaws" showing that shift around between model cycles.

All these maps do is remind me that I live 150 miles too far south for snow 90% of the time.

Schreck et al.

Pretty significant improvement on the 12z GEFS for the 25-30th window.

Higher heights over the Canadian Maritimes rather than lower heights(ideal) is the biggest issue with this threat at as depicted at range. The track is about perfect, and everything else is decent enough, and there is plenty of time for features to get tweaked a bit, hopefully in the favorable direction.

I hear ya. At this point I am just going to watch and see how the new long wave pattern actually establishes beyond this weekend. Hopefully we start to see more hits pop up on future runs. I think the +heights in central Canada will build further NW going forward. Can start to see that occurring towards the end of the 0z GEFS run.

We are talking about means at range dude. The overriding theme on all guidance, including the CFS, is the improvement on the PAC side with the PNA and the EPO going forward. As you know, classically good looks that show up at D15 rarely look the same on a mean when that gets inside D10.

More likely with the pattern change barely underway for this coming weekend. There is a bit of a signal for that period, although it could be colder. Plenty of time.

This looks like a 'much better pattern' than the garbage one we have had the past 2+ weeks to me, and pretty much matches what has been advertised across guidance lately.. We will have to wait and see if the upcoming period produces any significant snow, but this is an h5 look that could get it done.