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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    Trending the "wrong way" means warmer/lack of snow. That generally happens more often as the guidance corrects(trends) as lead times shorten because that is the reality of our climo. When there is an established favorable pattern with persistence, that is when they tend to trend "better" with time. We have the opposite of that this winter.
  2. CAPE
    Always looked to me like a transient ridge moving through the NA on the means. I never saw any indications of a legit block developing.
  3. CAPE
    It doesn't always, and there is no El Nino presently. ENSO is neutral, and MJO is driving the tropical forcing bus.
  4. CAPE
    Generally agree. I posted pretty much the same thing yesterday. We could survive a +AO and do decently with snowfall, but not with a hostile PAC. The EPO ridge has been oft advertised, but not materialized since Nov. +PNA has been fleeting at best. A sustained +AO = death to snow chances here without other indices in favorable phases to somewhat mitigate it.
  5. CAPE
    lol this is my default mode every winter. I am damn well aware of where I live.
  6. CAPE
    I find it generally snows here when the h5 pattern is favorable. Doesn't mean super cold, and 2009-10 might be a bad example (high standard) but in this context it works. When the key features are in the right places and phases, marginal 37 degree temps leading into an event end up 25 and snow. We are at the other end of the spectrum this winter. 37 ends up 50 and rain with a high sliding off the coast and a storm tracking to the NW.
  7. CAPE
    It's uncanny. Until proven otherwise, we are in complete fail mode for frozen here, with no end in sight.
  8. CAPE
    The looks we are getting on the ops and ens now are pure ugliness. ++AO/+NAO, -PNA, 50-50 highs, failed attempt after failed attempt to build an EPO ridge...expect every outcome to be the exact inverse of what you want and you wont be disappointed. Then if something good happens, against all odds, you will be ecstatic.
  9. CAPE
    Decent winter day today. 24 this morning, 37 now. With the mid cloud deck, I could almost imagine a bit of snow moving in...back to the real world. It will dip below freezing tonight, but beyond that, he may be right. Pretty damn mild for the next week or so.
  10. CAPE
    You are one thick headed dude. Hopefully PSU will stop engaging you. What a waste of his time.
  11. CAPE
    No worries with that. Only relevant when it snows.
  12. CAPE
    ^lol not too impressive. Ofc given the advertised long wave pattern, and that surface and 850 temp anomalies are positive for all but about 3 days of the run, I guess that looks pretty good.
  13. CAPE
    We need that Nov pattern now. Figures the most favorable pattern we have seen would occur when snow climo completely sucks lol.
  14. CAPE
    This has been and continues to be the primary killer. With a sustained +AO, that almost always correlates to a +NAO, and with very little help to offset it in the PNA/EPO domains, the overall pattern is pretty much death to MA snow chances.
  15. CAPE
    Winter showed its hand weeks ago. The advertised look in the LR is mostly more of the same. Maybe we luck into something, but the likelihood of a notable pattern flip before it's too late is probably low. Pretty confident we will see a -NAO death block for April and May though.
  16. CAPE
    Doesn't look like sun angle 'season' will be a thing this year.
  17. CAPE
    This region has mild winters in general. That is simply the base state. Always been that way. In order to increase chances for cold/snow it takes a specific set of anomalous atmospheric features, and we don't really have any of those boxes checked his winter, other than for very brief periods. A sustained +AO combined with an unfavorable Pac is usually a killer for snow in this area, esp low elevations. Its happening.
  18. CAPE
    18z GEFS says fogedaboudit for the next 7 days(we have pretty much known this for a while now), and then this- Way out there, but what else we got?
  19. CAPE
    If I don't like it, or believe it, fake newz. #truthiness
  20. CAPE
    Who left?
  21. CAPE
    Yeah when I said 'next week', I meant beginning next week(around midweek) when we get some legit cold moving in for the first time in forever. Hopefully we get a week to 10 day window before the Pac ridge retros, mean trough pulls back west, and we SE ridge again. Or maybe the ensembles are wrong about that look and we roll into deep winter. lol.
  22. CAPE
    Not crazy about the long wave pattern the global ensembles are continuing to advertise in the LR. Looks familiar. I know some may see a gradient pattern and think we could be on the "right" side, but not sure how one convinces themselves it will work out that way given that practically every storm this winter has tracked too far NW to snow here. Could work out if the GEFS is correct, but the Canadian ens looks especially crappy. More waiting and watching. Next week may be our hail mary window lol.
  23. CAPE
    This is probably as good a run as is possible for the coastal plain with this crappo setup, and it still produces only light snow. Thus why I have been out since the beginning.
  24. CAPE
    Crappy rates lad.
  25. CAPE
    Still plenty to be worked out with phasing/lack thereof, track etc. One thing that continues to be consistent though is the complete lack of arctic air. Only way it works imo is a perfect phase/perfect track and a robust deformation zone. My interest lies in the period just beyond when it appears we will finally have some decent cold air to work with, and maybe even a transient -NAO.
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