CAPE

Dude, we agree on the blocking lol. No worries. Where we differ, I think, is on expectations. Most of us here know that the bar is always lower going into a Nina. So like I said, a "good" winter, during a Nina, is mean snowfall, give or take. If the requirement for a 'good" winter is above average snow, well that is not likely in these parts without some blocking, and esp in a Nina winter. People would be better off hoping for median snowfall in general. More realistic these days.

Remember, there really is no "we", especially during winter.

Yep. My yard and esp places further east did ok with the Boxing day storm, but despite the blocking, many in this sub forum don't have fond memories...

Yes it was and we had our best region wide snowfall in March. Eastern areas cashed in during the cold snap the first part of January, while the DC area was cold and dry. That period was driven by a favorable Pac, with not much help in the N Atlantic, which goes back to what I was saying in my initial post on the subject- we can get some good snow here when we have a favorable EPO/PNA, absent a -NAO, although it clearly doesn't happen very often in a Nina.

Where did I say a -NAO wasn't important? The MA generally doesn't do well in a Nina, period(outside of the western highlands).That has mostly to do with the lack of a subtropical jet and NS dominance, Miller Bs etc. A "good" Nina winter is getting somewhere near average snowfall. There are a few Nina winters where extreme blocking allowed for above normal snow. The last time we had a Nina, 2017-18. many areas here were right at average(not DC, sadly), and right along the coast did better than average. That was a predominantly +NAO winter. There was a MA beach blizzard in early Jan(da bomb cyclone!) although the NAO may have been technically neutral as that storm approached.. Certainly no blocking. So it can happen.

We can snow here with a favorable Pacific(PNA/EPO) and a +NAO. Its not always easy and there is a higher risk of bigger storms tracking inland, but we did pretty well in the winter of 13-14. Gotta have the cold available and that pattern delivered consistently. Ofc that winter was not a Nina. A -NAO definitely improves the odds of a favorable storm track down here though. It is pretty much a requirement for a big snow producer, especially for the coastal plain.

Maybe Cohen will be right for the wrong reason again.

Based on recent/current observations, it appears to be headed in that direction. 40/70 Benchmark made a post on his preliminary thoughts for winter a page or so back and discussed it in detail.

Assuming we are looking at a CP based, low end moderate Nina, where is the most likely location for the N/EPAC ridge to park? Given the current state and trend of the QBO, significant HL blocking episodes(AO/NAO) would appear an unlikely prospect once we get into the heart of winter, so it looks like the most critical element is the exact placement of that ridge. If it is further NE, that would seem to lessen the chances of a persistent SER.

Transient ridging in the NAO domain is tricky. It is clearly not a block, and to get any benefit from it takes great timing. Many times it looks "good" when it shows up on a mean, but it ends up being useless and/or nothing more than a ridge passing through that space out in front of a digging trough. There are varying degrees of actual blocking, but the premise is the same- the storm track is forced underneath, and it persists for some appreciable amount of time such that we don't have to thread the needle.

^Nice writeup with helpful supporting/background data. That last analog composite is generally in line with the h5 pattern the seasonal/climate models have been depicting for winter, with the possible exception of Dec, fwiw. Not a good look for this region, but we are getting used to the pig EPAC ridge parking in an 'unfavorable' location with little to no help in the AO/NAO space.

As we move into October, the climate models may offer somewhat more reliable hints as to where the EPAC ridge will set up, and whether or not there will be any HL blocking for the first part of winter. We are probably still a month away from extracting anything useful from these models.

This is something I mentioned in discussion with psu earlier in the thread. With the oceans all on fire, how much impact can a relatively small sliver of slightly cooler/warmer SSTs in the Pacific really have on the atmosphere at this point, and going forward? It would seem outside of a strong ENSO event, the influence should be muted relative to other pattern drivers.

Yeah I will go out on a limb here and guarantee my yard will see more than an inch, which was the total last winter(rounding up).

Latest CFS runs continue to depict h5 +height anomalies over the high latitudes for late Fall into the first part of winter.

That map is ambiguous, and quite frankly, useless.

I was in the 4-10" area. Yeah 8" of wet snow at 32 degrees piled up here early on, but the second half of the storm was 40 degree driving rain. An historic storm for the interior for sure, esp the mountains.

Oh I agree. It was just a heavy wet snow to rain deal here though. Then all the waterlogged slush froze solid as the cold air came back in at the end. Probably not even a top 20 storm here as winter storms go. This is a MBY business, as we are all well aware of here.

That storm sucked on all of the coastal plain of the MA.

Beach snow chase redux.

This We thought we had become NNE lol. My yard did "okay". At least had low end warning criteria snow(5"), and lots of blowing and drifting in the days that followed. Places just east of here by 10 miles had double that amount though. I really wasn't mad at all, given the previous winter results, and knowing I was about 30 miles from getting nothing.

It was a really good storm for a large area. Too much sleet at the height along/east of I-95 though. Made up for it with the great CCB snows on the backside.

Wrong storm. There were 2 being discussed. I was referring to December 2010.

The end result is it was a typical Nina screw job for most of the MA. East of the bay there was some snow(5" here) but not the foot that was supposed to fall. It was close- places in DE had 8-10, and then ofc NJ and points NE got hammered.

Gotta give the guy some credit- he manages to claim victory even as his 'discovery' fails over and over. As long as it snows a lot somewhere in the US, and at least one other weather geek on social media mentions Polar Vortex, winner!