CAPE
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This is one of those deals with there is probably some element of "truth" to the claim, but there is no measurable evidence to arrive at that conclusion. So yeah, its yet another myth.
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There is going to be a bit of a battle with that High anchored over SE Canada I think. Probably why the low (and area of best lift) will be on the compact side the further east it tracks. Decent PWATs get into the S and E part of the region.
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1.10" over the last 2 days, and 7.93" for the month. Looks like some decent rain for tonight into tomorrow. Probably an inch or so. Going to take advantage of the weather today and get another section of the lawn over-seeded and fertilized.
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Yeah that spoke on the west side rotates inland right around my area and then really comes together as a larger area of lift as it moves sw. Probably interacting with the stalled front and maybe a localized boundary/bay breeze. You will probably end up with 2+.
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You know this is from a newly formed TS? That low that was off the coast of NC is now Kyle.
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0.60" in the last 30 mins.
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Deluge now. Hope my baby grass blades survive.
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Finally getting a decent downpour here. First one all day.
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HFHH! Drinking a 'Straight Outta The South Street Lab' from Equilibrium. A superior hazy DIPA, with prominent notes of citrus, and moderately hoppy. Very good!
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Sounds like a case for a class action lawsuit in that subdivision for not rectifying the drainage issue. That is just ridiculous.
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Yeah it was pouring when I left. Not a damn thing up here lol. I will have the sprinkler on shortly to give the seedlings a drink if nothing pops up.
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Tomorrow looks like a pretty nice day with somewhat lower humidity and temps in the low to mid 80s, esp for northern/ eastern parts of the region. After whatever rain falls late tomorrow and Sunday, the early to midweek period looks- dare I say- spectacular, with normal to below normal temps, lower humidity, and plenty of sun. Mid to late next week there may be some scattered shower/t-storm chances, but overall no signs of heat and humidly with a PNA ridge and a late summer -NAO. Fall preview!
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Think there is any chance we see an h5 look like this 4 months from now?
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Ofc any serious talk of a -NAO during winter is like chasing Bigfoot at this juncture.
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You can see it if it persists on the means. It is rarely modeled well in advance though. Also a transient ridge passing through the NAO domain really isn't a NA block. The difference there is a thread the needle deal vs having persistence in forcing the storm track below us.
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Woodford Reserve on the rocks with a splash of diet coke for HH.
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It will advertise plenty of -NAOs in the day 25+ range.
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0.43" here today. Lots of little grass blades popping up out there after only 5 days.
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Looks like it is filling in. A half inch of moderate rain would be nice.
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lol every time I look at radar my yard is in the notch of nothingness. Back in that rut again.
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Wouldn't mind some moderate rain, but would rather not have a deluge as I just put some grass seed down last weekend. Raining pretty good here in Easton now.
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Nothing here other than a brief sprinkle yesterday evening. After 7" last week, probably whiff on this period. Things tend to even out.
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lol you are looking at it. The FV3 is the upgrade and it became operational last year. The corresponding GEFS upgrade is now experimental- the GEFS Para available on TT. I made a couple posts on the GEFS upgrade in the disco thread a few days ago. The 0z run goes out to hr 840! I know you like that feature.
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Most of this activity should die off in the next few hours, as it was mostly driven by surface heating/ surface boundaries/bay breezes. Tomorrow might end up being a better day for more widespread convection. Looks like a ul perturbation moves in early, there will be some actual shear, and the front will still be across the area. SB instability probably wont be as high though.
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Not a drop here. Lots of thunder, some awesome cloud formations, and outflow breezes though. Sprinkler running now. Gotta keep that seed moist.
