CAPE
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Its gotten nicer here this afternoon. 82 but the dew points have dropped- down to 55 now. I'll give it an 8.5/10 tho. Remember I am intrinsically a cold and bitter person.
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Pretty much the outcome I expected lol. I watered yesterday, and I will be probably watering again on Monday or Tuesday..
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As depicted its a closed upper low that is becoming cut off, possibly becoming nearly stationary. Those generally weaken as the low becomes stacked and more detached from the strong thermal boundaries, and the upper level divergence weakens. The longer it sits and spins SW of us, the lower the chance of seeing more than some bouts of showers on the NE side. But yes, still some uncertainty with multiple pieces of energy- one of (sub)tropical origin- and an expansive ridge up top.
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81, and a tad humid. I'm ready for a few days of cool and mostly cloudy, with some rain sprinkled in here and there.
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Not really my wish- I am always in for an interesting weather period, and I don't really mind wet and cool for a few days, given what lies just ahead. Starting around this time of year my soil dries out real quick if it doesn't rain for a week. But yeah I have seen the possibility for an "in between" scenario, and it seems to becoming more prevalent on guidance in some recent runs.
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This has been my thinking. The UL will do most of the "damage", and it will be an area of heavy rain mainly west of the metros. Most of the good rains end by Tuesday evening. Then as the low weakens and meanders, keeps things mostly cloudy and cool-ish with scattered showers mid to late week. The subtropical low has little impact, other than producing sinking air for eastern areas until it gets shunted further east.
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NAM has been looking that way too. Subsidence FTL (or win) depending on your perspective. Here is an indication of which way I have been leaning with expectations- I watered my grass last evening/this morning.
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Still plenty of uncertainty with the low interactions and the big upper ridge to the north.
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Not the best time of the year to plant grass seed, but good luck. And you know this will not be a week of wet weather. Probably the best chance of significant rain (some place in the region) is Monday night into Tuesday. Beyond that it will probably be mostly cloudy and cool, with some showers around, if that upper low meanders for a few days.
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Tracks the Atlantic low straight up the coast.
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lol 6z GFS.
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I made chicken tikka masala in a slow cooker a while back and it turned out delicious and smelled awesome.
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Yeah I have to be in the mood for those. I always liked the Flying Dog "The Fear" Imperial Pumpkin ale. About 9% abv.
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Yeah the pumpkin is decent. I am not a big fan of those type beers overall. Hard to do well. RAR has a great one, but you have to find it on tap. Its called Big Lizz. Brewed with locally grown butternut squash. Cult Classic has a very good oatmeal stout and a high gravity dark ale that is very stout like. I love their IPAs, esp the fruity/hazy one. I forget what they call it.
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Yeah I was concerned if they would be able to survive. Relatively new brewery but they have a great product. I was a regular. Hopefully they can make it.
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Looks good. Good to see Cult Classic is doing ok. I miss going there and having a flight. They literally just got their kitchen going when the covid shit started.
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I think it probably works out better(for a more widespread rain event) if the subtropical low gets out of the way. A phase seems like a low probability, but if it hangs closer to the coast near our latitude there may be an area of subsidence on the northern/western side.
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85/65 I'll take a replay of the previous few days, thanks.
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Speaking of warm and humid, I could have waited another month for a day like today.
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Not weather related for me. I drink in the AC, not outside in the stifling heat and humidity of summer. That's what water is for.
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Enjoy mid June today. Tomorrow should be ok for the most part, but there will be a chance of some scattered showers. Still around 80.
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Cult Classic is great. Love their hazy IPA.Their pumpkin ale is quite good. More on the subtle side. Looks like you got a full day in.
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I did! Awesome place isn't it? Nice photo.
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He reemerged lol.
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The Atlantic low looks to escape eastward, but it could inhibit lift on the western side. One possible reason guidance may have the best rains further inland currently, in addition to the 2 shortwaves potentially congealing to the west/sw of our region in the mountains. For now it's something interesting to monitor. If I had to make a call now, I would say the best chance for heavier rain would be in the mountains w/sw of here, with some showery periods further to the east.
