CAPE

QBO won't make much difference. Its impacts are nebulous imo, and even more so in Nina. The AO/NAO is pretty much guaranteed to be positive for the winter months based on persistence and general correlation to Nina. Not to say we wont have a few periods where it is less positive or neutral. Maybe the solar minimum will save the day(winter).

The thinking is more linear as it moves eastward towards the coast, and reading the discussion from Mount Holly they think the most likely place for a tornado is in Cecil over into Newcastle in DE up into SE PA. Possibly some interaction with the warm front lying across that area, backing the flow some is my guess. Bigger overall threat will be damaging straight line winds, with fairly strong winds aloft and decent Dcape. Bowing segments generally produce straight line winds but can also produce tornadoes as vorticity sometimes develops on the north/south end of the line. How far north are you?

Yeah a CanSIPS Dec followed by a CFS Jan and Feb would be pretty decent. A month from now we can reanalyze.This is fun.

Yup. At some point I am just gonna say eff it and let grow what wants to grow. A combo of clover, dandelions, moss, and crabgrass seems like a nice variety of green ground cover. And some pretty little flowers too!

Latest discussion from SPC-

I hope the heavy rain manages to avoid my yard today. Got plenty last night, and some of the grass I planted a few weeks ago looks a bit meh. With the lowering sun angle there isn't as much sun through the trees to really dry things out.

The latest CFS runs now have a torch for December lol, but then a pretty good look for January- similar to above but better- deeper trough and hints of a bit of HL help. Looks pretty similar to h5 back in Jan of 2018 when we had the cold period(and the bomb cyclone). February doesn't look terrible either. All just for fun ofc at this juncture with these climate models.

6z 3km NAM suggestive of super cells transitioning to QLCS. Has what appears to be a bowing segment with a cyclonic head developing and moving towards the lower eastern shore.

If @JakkelWx gets a super cell over his yard I'll go chase it though.

Looks like its over here, No wind, which is fine with me. Impressive deluge and back end electrical storm with the following cell. 1.45" Y'all can have tomorrow.

Well the second part has been impressive with frequent thunder and lightning. Looks like the rain should slack up soon per radar. 1.42"

Incredible thunder and lighting with this second part. Just unplugged all my high end audio gear.

Denton is gonna get clocked.

Getting in on the edge of that severe area here now. Booming house rattling thunder.

Yes! But the thunder is ominous now. Over an inch of rain so far. Boom! Damn that was close.

The sw edge of this line moving through Wye Mills looks potent. I think that will slide south of me, Booming thunder now. 0.92" so far

Nothing severe here but absolutely pouring with some T & L.

Torrential. Some decent T&L too.

Its definitely full bodied, and full of alcohol

Looked great at 12z for I-95 and points east.

Mount Holly updated AFD for severe threat this evening and tomorrow-

Probably shouldn't be drinking a high gravity monster a couple hours after donating blood, but wth. Cheers!

Yeah pretty much all the CAMs are onboard for tomorrow. Might be legit.

Euro drops in a deep trough and closes it off over the 4 corners, thus the extreme change in temperature. A bit extreme even for there in early Sept. though. I will go out on a limb- it won't go from mid 90s to 30s for highs in one day lol. Definitely looks like a major shift in the h5 pattern, but probably more like highs in the 50s, maybe 40s for a few days in Denver itself.

I find milk stouts always lack complexity, and ofc they tend to be low gravity. The creamy smoothness is the appeal for the most part. The pour with nitro is always 'critical' lol. I drink them once in a while but much prefer a BIG Imperial stout.