CAPE

Drove through some actual drizzle on the way to work. Might be some legit light showers later today and tonight. Looks like the transition from easterly flow to south/southwest flow will get underway tomorrow. Should have at least 4 days of warm/hot and humid before the next cold front drops down next Tuesday or so. Hopefully there will be several chances for showers/t-storms over the next few days with the warmer, more unstable air mass in place as the UL lifts NW and opens up.

Yeah you are in a different world wrt to the impacts from the upper low.

It was gorgeous. Next few days look pretty decent too. Hopefully we get a little rain towards the end of the week, although it is not looking too impressive. The weekend into early next week is looking pretty torchy. Probably a day or 2 of low to mid 90s with heat advisories for the urban areas.

Next weekend looks toasty as the rex block breaks down and an upper ridge moves in from the west. Probably upper 80s-low 90s, with some t-storm chances during the transition Friday into Saturday.

That beer looks interesting enough to try. I would skip the smoke. Unless you are talking weed.

Never tried that one. Doesn't sound like my thing. Gets pretty average reviews on Beer Advocate. That DFH 120 min IPA sitting in my fridge is going to get consumed here shortly. No doubt about it.

73 and full sun here just after 1 pm. Glorious weather for mid June.

A stiff NE breeze has developed here this morning. Feels like Fall out there.

The source of the map I posted is the US Drought Monitor, and the map was released on June 11. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

56 this morning. Another day in the mid 70s. Stellar.

A few areas of 'abnormally dry' have developed in the region. None in VA btw. This will likely become more expansive over the next week.

I had one last night. I am going to try to resist lol.

71 here too. Super nice. Sun just dipped enough below the trees that I could turn the sprinkler on lol. Really have to try to stay ahead this time of year with the high sun. Already seeing some crispy brown spots starting on the sunny side of the yard.

The latest ENSO update via NCEP/CPC diagnostic discussion appears they are beginning to lean more towards a Nina for the upcoming fall/winter. Not surprising given the current trends, but previous outlooks were favoring continuation of ENSO neutral.

Same here. Did half last night, now doing the other half.

61 here. Beautiful morning. Got the sprinkler going.

The FV3 upgrade was just about a year ago I think- so it has been the operational GFS for a year now. Seems it could benefit from a few tweaks.

Looks like 4 straight days with 70s/50s and partly to mostly sunny. Cant get much better than that in mid June.

Oh my this DFH 120 is going down fast.

Its terrible.

Meanwhile, the 12z CMC is dry right through next Saturday.

12z GFS brings some decent rains into our area after Wed. UL takes a bit more northerly track as it passes off the coast, with a nice vort pass through the region. Subject to much change ofc.

It may be delayed, but significant and prolonged heat is rarely denied in the MA. It will probably be brutal in August and September, just as we are all looking forward to Fall.

Latest model trends continue with the upper low dropping further south into the Carolinas. This is looking a lot like the set up of a few weeks ago when the rain stayed mostly to the southwest of the region until the UL finally lifted out. At this point it appears we may stay mostly dry through Tuesday, with the best chance of rain coming at the end of next week.

In a nutshell from WPC- still plenty of uncertainty and important details still yet to be resolved... Some guidance is still showing meaningful spread and variability but there is gradually increasing potential for a heavy rainfall event somewhere within an area extending from the central Appalachians through Mid-Atlantic to the eastern Carolinas. Typical guidance error for forecasts several days out in time--as well as difficulty in resolving important smaller-scale details that will determine where heavier rainfall bands as well as training/repeat activity set up--keep the confidence in specifics fairly low at this time. Localized maximum five-day totals of 5-10 inches may be possible depending on the exact path of the upper low. At the same time the clouds/rainfall will keep high temperatures around 5-12F below normal over portions of the East. Readings should drift closer to normal by next Wed-Thu.