CAPE

Patchy frost in the forecast here for Sat night. Lowest temp so far is 41.

Great name and artwork. Yours will probably be better, although that is probably my fav overall. What spices are going to be prominent?

Up to an inch is acceptable. No water laying around, so they aren't bad, The cold nights will do them in hopefully.

Looking forward to the 'new normal' Nina beach blizzard this January.

There are other factors/indices that influence snowfall here in a given winter, as you well know.

On a bit of a Nina roll there. Can we make it 3 for 3 on Jan beach snowstorms? Never know.

Trends are drier here too, which is fine with me. Still looks like a half inch or so.

Looks wet for eastern areas yet again for the end of the week. Some sort of anafrontal deal.

It all depends on the phase/amplitude of the longwave pattern. Euro amps the PAC ridge and digs the trough in out west, with +heights building downstream over the east. GFS is more progressive. Euro led the way back in September with the highly amped pattern, digging the trough into the 4 corners region and giving the Denver area snow. GFS was initially less amped/more progressive with that energy.

If the Euro/EPS is correct, our cool down will be brief, with a return to relatively toasty temps by mid next week.

Unless it is a legit, sustained west-based block- but that is unlikely to occur unless the AO is also negative. I guess there is some possibility the mean Pac ridge is close enough to the west coast in early winter to pop a +PNA for a time. Some of the climate models have suggested this before the Pac goes to total crap by mid winter. Latest CFS runs have backed off on that idea, and also any semblance of HL help. It is starting to get a clue.

This is true but one thing to consider here is the official method for measuring the AO and NAO phases(surface based), vs the sensible weather impacts we associate with the h5 heights in those domains. They mostly should be aligned, but not always.

The 840 hour GEFS looking good for mid November.

60 F here and still breezy/cloudy. Total rainfall 1.51" An underperformer here for once!

They generally are all depicting a 'typical Nina' look, and we are clearly in a Nina. People get too locked into these monthly means though, as if the h5 pattern will always look like a LR smoothed mean in real time lol. Ultimately, we just cant know, and there will be some chances even if the winter does overall end up a dumpster fire.

This look would surely produce an apocalyptical blizzard if it were mid Jan.

No kidding, They have completely abandon that. I don't get the feeling he is hurt though. I think this is an attempt to 'transform him' to keep him healthy, and/or its just Roman being a dope and going pass happy when the team is better suited to pounding it on the ground. The main offseason goal was to be able to keep defenses from loading the box by stretching the field on the outside a bit more, and to do that you need the right type of receivers. Hollywood can do it, but he is not a big, physical target. There have been a few times in the last 2 games where Lamar got the ball to him but he short-armed it, or didn't strongly pull it in. Ofc they went and drafted another smallish, fast guy instead of a tall, physical playmaker.

The last 2 winters were weak, wimpy undefined Nino/warm neutral, and the sensible weather that resulted could have easily occurred in a Nina. So I guess its debatable, lol.

We pretty sure it wont be a Nino.

Steady rain has been falling here again. Looks like the last gasp. 1.42"

Pretty decent pressure gradient/wind field between the remnant low and the high to the north.

Winds have really picked up here over the last hour. That easterly flow is getting going.

From Ravens 247- REPORT CARD: Wink Head of the Class, Roman Fails Glad I'm not the only one who thinks he has been awful.

1.15" here so far.