CAPE

Latest GEFS for early Jan. This isn't a good look if you are a polar vortex.

We are never that exciting.

Looks like the severe thread might get a little action lol.

Latest take from Mount Holly- Thursday into Friday the upper level low that was over the central United States is forecast to merge with another upper level disturbance diving south out of central Canada. The GFS has these two waves constructively interfering with one another with rapid deepening forecast. The ECMWF shows something similar, but is slightly slower. The CMC is by far the slowest here. Either way, the upper level dynamics with this system look very impressive with a 150 kt jet streak and accompanying 150/300 m height falls. Latest forecast soundings show a very impressive veered wind profile. The LLJ is also very impressive, with the 925/850 mb layer average forecast to be around 70 kts. Out ahead of the approaching cold front showers and some embedded thunder will be possible, with a change over to snow on the backside of the cold front also possible.

For those into snow maps, both the GEFS and EPS have an inch or less for late next week, exception being the western highlands ofc. Still 5+ days out with some variations in play as usual. My guess is either rain followed by a quick shot of snow, or the usual rain on the warm side of the front followed by CAA.

I might get tired of it by the end of next week if I don't actually see a few flakes. Or one, lets start with one.

18z GEFS mean is an inch or less for the Xmas miracle(aka CAPE) storm. I need to work on this.

Anafrontal Xmas miracle.. game still on.

Mount Holly's (new) quick take on late week.. they did say to stay tuned lol. A cold front associated with the low will cross the area, ending the warmer temperatures and bringing a sudden return to Winter. Rains will likely change to snow and some accumulations are possible later Thu night and into Friday. Still a week away, so exact details will have to wait until we get closer, but this could affect travel during the upcoming holiday.

Mostly cloudy today with a high of 34. This what a mid December day should feel like. 32 now.

Some snow TV I guess. Hard to know with the 6 hour panels and the WB wonkiness with surface/snowfall maps. Abrupt change in temps pre-post front too.

Cambridge lol.

lol it gets bigger just after that. I was trying to capture the Xmas frontal deal.

Not bad for late next week. eta- some of that falls early in the week for the western highlands.

Very similar to the 0z Euro. We got time for correction.

Of course. Everyone should. You know if I am posting anything from a LR op run its just for fun, lol.

And then this.. Dw it will trend colder with that mega block...and be a great snowstorm for NC.

The anafrontal Xmas miracle is happening.. Remember, I called the white Xmas a couple weeks ago. @WxUSAF knows.

I am so grateful someone posted a snow map for an event 6 days away.

Actually had a flash freeze here yesterday morning. Cold came in quick as the last bit of rain was falling.

It just wants to rain here...a fart it all it takes.

The jet streak position is favorable(LF quad) and there is some moisture. Surface temps and timing probably the biggest issues for getting a skiff of snow..

Shortwave is a tad better on the 12z GFS.

Yeah its embarrassing. I don't understand why they had to blow up the whole look/functionality just because Flash support is done. Use another runtime app/plugin but keep the same general interface and features.