CAPE

I was down at the end of my driveway taking a few shots of it approaching when the warning alert came across lol. Then a lightning bolt had be "running" back up the driveway in flip flops.

Had a power outage for over an hour. Wind has been impressive here- a pretty large branch fell across my driveway. Really gusting out there now. 1.05" of rain this morning, and the temp is up to 69 with a dp of 64. Juicy out there.

Here is the SPS on the gravity wave- Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 932 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 NJZ001-007>010-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>103-105-131545- Sussex-Warren-Morris-Hunterdon-Somerset-Carbon-Monroe-Berks- Lehigh-Northampton-Western Chester-Eastern Chester- Western Montgomery-Upper Bucks- Including the cities of Newton, Washington, Morristown, Flemington, Somerville, Jim Thorpe, Stroudsburg, Reading, Allentown, Bethlehem, Easton, Honey Brook, Oxford, West Chester, Kennett Square, Collegeville, Pottstown, Chalfont, and Perkasie 932 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2020 ...Brief period of damaging wind gusts possible late this morning... Several surface observations from central Pennsylvania have indicated a one-to-two hour period of wind gusts between 40 and 70 mph. These stronger winds have reached the southern Poconos and Lehigh Valley. Wind gusts may reach 60 mph in eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey through midday. Tree damage and power outages may occur with these stronger wind gusts.

Yup it feels legit humid out there now. Temp is up to 68 here.

Already had a power outage here for an hour +, and the wind is really gusting again now. It had calmed down a bit when the rain stopped earlier.

Probably right on the leading edge of the dry slot. It's going to be an interesting day with the trees and power lines.

0.80" so far. The overnight rain here was mostly light to moderate. Much heavier this morning, and is associated with the warm front lifting through plus some vorticity aloft.

This is technically round 2 now, as the actual warm front is lifting north over the area. Next we see how unstable we can get from around mid morning on. What develops at that point would be round 3, and carry severe potential, with the best chances of mixing some of that strong wind field aloft down to the surface. Winds are really picking up here now, with some heavy showers moving through.

Precisely

Looks like this will be fairly localized over the higher terrain of w VA/WV, with an upper jet, area of 700-850 fronto forcing, and probably some orographic lift thrown in- if it comes together at all. As PSU said, Euro is not impressive with the dynamics on the latest run. Either way it looks to be very elevation dependent for any accumulating snow. No shocker there.

Pretty reasonable for mid April, right?

This is clearly an elevation "event". 2000 ft+ probably a few inches of wet snow. Once you get down to 1000 ft, maybe some wet slush bombs mixed in. Below that, it's a chilly rain. LOL at snow in southern NJ. Keep those maps coming though!

I think wine is more appropriate for Easter, but I will get to that later, with dinner. Right now a Voodoo Ranger IPA is doing the trick.

Well, Mount Holly went with a fairly widespread High Wind Warning. I thought it might only be hoisted for the immediate coastal counties of DE and NJ.. ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY... * WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with 50 to 60 mph gusts expected. * WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and central, northern and southern Delaware. * WHEN...From 6 AM to 7 PM EDT Monday. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Thunderstorms are possible on Monday that could result in even stronger wind gusts. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if you must drive.

My hope is renewed everyday, right around 4 pm.

There is a big oak tree on the edge of the lot next to me that is leaning and the root ball is lifting on the one side. Just noticed this the other day, and it probably got worse in the recent wind event. Its going to uproot, just a matter of time. Its not near the house, but if it falls it will completely block my driveway. It is leaning in a NNE direction, so the winds in the upcoming event might do it.

@frd How is your grass coming along?

I mentioned this in the severe thread, but probably the high wind watch will go to a warning for the immediate coasts of DE and NJ, with advisories elsewhere. In our region, this area is most likely to see gusts to 60.

I have a feeling the watch here will end up being an advisory, with a warning along the coasts of DE and NJ, and also the western highlands.

These suckers are vectors for all sorts of nasty stuff as it is- don't need to add something else. I have one clear source of mosquitoes here, a woodland (non-tidal) wetland- that is wet in the late winter/early Spring then it dries up. If I hit it with larvicide a couple times, the only mosquitoes I see around my place in the summer are ones that can be easily controlled my not having objects/places near the house where small amounts of water can sit for a few days after it rains.

Ha mostly yeah. Its dried up back there quite a bit with the low dews and all the wind and minimal rain over the past 10 days. A tad concerned about the wind potential here(tree issues), but that almost never materializes to an extreme. Hopefully the high wind watch here goes to an advisory later on.

@Weather Will These snowfall maps are cool and all, but how about posting a total precip map from the 0z Euro for the next 2 days? Thanks.

It is known to do well in the shade, and I can attest to that. My issues with it in the past was it burning up in the part of the yard that gets many hours of direct sun.