CAPE

Nice overview based on the current data/climate guidance. A lot has to be in our favor for an average to above average snowfall season in the MA, outside of the western highlands. At this juncture, there really isn't much to like in that regard. Almost every major driver/index looks as if it will be the antithesis of what we need here. We had this situation last winter, and the worst possible outcome resulted. You mentioned the solar min, and I concur that is a nebulous influence, and will certainly not offset all the other factors that may align to inhibit the development of any persistent HL blocking. What we hope for are the inevitable variations in a mostly "bad" pattern, and a bit of luck to take advantage for a fluke event or 2. Since we had zero of that last winter, maybe we are due a little.

I never had any luck with that keeping birds away. Every couple years I get a male cardinal or bluebird that fights with its refection in my windows, and they are persistent. Fake owls never worked. What did work are those inflatable "beach balls" with the big, exaggerated eyes all the way around, and a shiny ribbon that hangs from the bottom. Hung those up and they spin and move in the breeze, and instantly no birds banging into my windows and shitting everywhere. Problem is they are so obsessed that they look for another reflective surface- like the mirror on your car or even a piece of chrome trim lol.

You should get used to this possibility unless you plan to relocate. Or be more realistic with expectations and use median instead of mean.

Just to nitpick the weather today- a bit of a breeze would have made for perfection. In the absence of that, I did sweat a little in the sun. Currently 74.

Yeah they peck sometimes to attract a mate. Its called drumming. In my case, having a log home, they were pecking for carpenter bee larvae. Destructive one-two punch. Luckily I have that situation under control with bee traps.

Plenty around here. When I see them I am happy they are pecking on a tree and not my house.

What a day. Refreshing air mass. That and the lower sun angle gives it a legit fall feel.

Oh gotcha. Thought you were talking about a LAN wi-fi connection, like there was an issue with her laptop network card. I am lucky here, The CO in Greensboro has DSL, and I am right at the wire mile limit, so I can can get a whopping 1.6 Mbps. At some point I will go to cellular but the DSL is cheap. I have to to pay a fee to keep the land line active to use it though.

You sure it's the wi-fi? Or is it the actual internet connection. Wireless connections are usually very reliable as long as you are solidly in range of the AP.

My call is the foothills west of Denver get clocked pretty good with heavy wet snow, and in Denver proper there will be some snow but it will struggle to accumulate with marginal temps and warm ground, with several days in the 80s and 90s leading in. Going from 60s to snow is one thing...90s? lol

newest member- taytayflyfly

Not sure what variety I have here now. Don't think they are the tigers- haven't noticed the stripes- but whatever they are they do bite in full sun. They are on the small side. If I am outside working I have to spray myself.

Stink bugs will be back soon. Those bastards have really ramped up in this area over the last few years. They like spending the winter with me, and I am going to try to make sure they don't this year.

I have a non-tidal "seasonal" wetland on my property and I have to deal with it every Spring. If I dont larvacide, I will have a mosquito heaven(hell) like no other by early May. It dries up as the trees become active and the days longer and warmer, and I have only had some pesky late summer mosquitoes around in the past few weeks. Hopefully all this rain doesn't ramp them up. I am very conscious of not having anything around that can capture and hold shallow water.

We have had several good storms this summer, and quite a few with frequent lightning. I had that one back in July that blew a tree down. Sometimes we can go through a whole season with nothing but lame garden variety storms.

Yeah I didn't think that would quite play out as the Euro was depicting a couple days ago, but it seems pretty likely now. The other globals have moved toward the idea of really digging that trough and closing it off, although still some disagreement on exact location.

More like hell lol. When I drive by there on the way home later today, that will probably be a few shallow puddles in the yard. That only happens when it rains excessively in a short time period.

Just standing water in this photo. Further up the road there was a swollen creek running across the road. This particular shot is a place where the drainage ditches are inadequate and don't drain into a major ditch or creek. Gotta pick your spots on the mid/upper eastern shore as the soil is so variable. Probably some heavy clay in this guy's yard that drains very slowly. My place is high and dry and has extremely well drained soil.

With all the headlines concerned with wind damage/tornadoes, the flooding threat seems to have been overlooked. I may have missed it but didn't see any FFW up last night, even as multiple rounds of storms with heavy rain were training over this area. I saw several scenes like this within 3 miles of my house driving into work this morning.

Nope, not for a while. One last storm rolled through after midnight with another half inch. 3.9" event total, and 5.35" since Wed night.

I think it stopped finally. 3.4" and 4.85" since yesterday.

Not sure what round it is but it can stop anytime now lol..I think it finally has. 3.4" 2 day total of 4.85" eta- had another storm after midnight, so the 'severe' event total is 3.9", and 5.35" since Wed night.

Didn't really want/need more heavy rain after last night, but pouring here again. I think my new grass is gonna croak from fungus. Just over an inch for today so far, and a total of 2.48" since last evening.

I know this is not DC- but I am basically on the same latitude and at low elevation- and I can think of 3 warning level events right off the top of my head in the last 2 Nina winters. The one in March I think did have some blocking, but the other 2 didn't. They were both coastal scrapers with 10" plus at the beaches, about 6 here, and little to nothing for DC. Just dumb luck I suppose. eta- being further East/NE does help in a Nina with catching the edge of a Miller B sometimes. Happened here in Dec 2010 (the storm never to be mentioned). Got 5" or so from that, and there was 10+ a few miles to my east, but that period did feature a -NAO IIRC.

Some bombs going off here now. This is more impressive than round one for sure. Last night was still better.