CAPE

I have been keeping an eye on mid month on the extended GEFS. Here is the latest depiction at h5. Best overall look yet, with what looks like a developing -EPO, and a -NAO. Southern stream should still be active too.

It's looking like a pretty decent heavy rain/wind event for early next week with that low closing off and tracking to the NW of the area. Congrats Ohio. Late next week/weekend looks semi interesting with potential complex interaction between a disturbance ejecting from the SW and northern stream energy dropping down. This has a chance to be further east/colder than the early week system.

Yeah they just released 3- this one, the bourbon barrel aged imperial stout, and the gingerbread spiced stout. The last one I am not sure is my cup of tea lol but I might try it. eta- this is similar to the imperial, but the bourbon is more prominent i think. I like this one a bit more, but both are very good. Subtle differences.

Some snippets from a very detailed AFD from Mount Holly this afternoon- As ridging builds over the Pacific Northwest and southwest Canada, a strong +PNA will develop. This begins over the weekend, then strengthens early to mid next week as an even stronger ridge builds in over the Northwest. This will force a downstream trough over the eastern and southeastern US beginning late in the weekend and likely continuing through most or all of next week, driving colder air into the southern US. Notably, this pattern is very counter to what would normally be expected in a moderate to strong La Nina. But a good reminder that other aspects of intraseasonal forcing can sometimes overcome the dominant global pattern driver. It is also usually an active, stormy pattern for the East Coast. Sunday night-Wednesday... As mentioned above, active weather is likely for this period. It will be a highly complex evolution as the new pattern takes shape. We will be watching two systems which are likely to begin interacting late in the weekend. One is a Canadian clipper low dropping towards the northern Great Lakes. The other is a robust southern stream wave propagating out of the desert Southwest, supported by an anomalously strong subtropical jet. Guidance has given strong indications for days that these systems are likely to phase over the East. However, as is usually the case, this interaction is likely to be complex, and while the general signal between models is fairly consistent, there are significant differences in details and timing. By the middle to end of next week, additional unsettled weather is possible as trailing shortwave disturbances rotate into the broader longwave trough in the East. With colder air in place, wintry outcomes may be more favored with time, but given the uncertainty associated with the early week system, changes are likely.

Picked this up today so I'll give it a go. Their Bourbon Barrel Aged Imperial Stout was very good. Still waiting for it to get cold- I broke out the (thermo)electric cooler the other day lol. I ordered a new control board for the fridge, and it won't be here until Friday.

So what's on tap for Thanksgiving eve HH?

I don't think he really remembers what he said initially, being drunk and all. But this is exactly what i did, as you know because you saw it. His original post had no place in that thread, or even banter for that matter.

That seemed like the logical and fair thing to do. I had my doubts though.

lol. I simply told you to take that shit elsewhere. Then you "flipped out" and attacked me with some dumbass crap about running people off the board. I will accept your apology though. Take care of that drinking problem.

It is impossible to resolve the minor details associated with how a specific storm will evolve and progress at this range. All we can do is identify the major components of the pattern and determine that the potential is there. It can be the most favorable pattern ever seen on paper and still produce no snow. The advertised h5 pattern is much more of a Nino look btw.

Just correcting his "story". He is entitled to his truthiness, but there were plenty of people in that thread who witnessed his bizarre little meltdown. It's done now. Move on.

Fwiw, the latest extended GEFS keeps the same general h5 look, and gets below normal temps into central Canada around mid December. There is a relaxation of the PNA ridge around that time, but then the +PNA reemerges(axis a tad further west) and the EPO goes negative (around xmas). The NA is generally serviceable throughout.

Cool story. Not correct though. You were triggered. You had a random hissy fit- everyone in that thread saw it. I shut you down. You got pissed and came back with some baseless bullshit about me. My reply was pretty tame- "yeah sure asshole". You had the tantrum. Stick to the immature drive by dick jokes. You have nothing else to offer here.

You need to start showing up for happy hour. Slacker.

Gourmet meal right here

I completely agree. But RR has some axe to grind apparently. He serves up that crap whenever someone says they miss a certain poster, as if there is some conspiracy going on up in here. Derailing main threads with shit like that should earn a timeout imo.

Yeah sorry. but he came with that crap out of nowhere. It was way the eff out there and uncalled for in that thread

Exactly. He randomly says this shit from time to time, out of the blue. It has political undertones, and it's ridiculous. He has claimed several times that the libruls ran Mitch out of here. Mitch is a big boy, and always fit in well here, and I never saw any indications of conflict. He has chosen not to post here for his own reasons, and that's his business. He has pmed me about weather related stuff over the last year or so. Very friendly discourse as usual. RR is clearly misinformed and a triggered snowflake.

Lolz I have the ability to run posters off this forum. Who wants to be next?

Yeah probably here too, but nothing I had to drive in so not as memorable.

I remember one legit one, when I lived in Carroll county. Strong cold front with heavy snow squalls(and thunder) where it melted on the roads for like the first 5-10 mins as temps crashed.

Mount Holly has rain/snow showers in the forecast for Monday night, and mentions flash freeze potential in their discussion.

Looks good at the end of the GEFS run today. Nice amplitude too- poking up over AK.

A perfect track bowling ball with cold air aloft and strong lift might get it done. The proverbial 'creator of its own cold air!' storm.

GEFS has it further east. Marginal airmass outside of elevated areas though. Probably not likely next week will produce for the majority of the MA. Its going to take some time, assuming the AK trough does weaken/retro, to get some legit cold air on our doorstep.