CAPE

Here is what the latest extended GEFS looks like for around Mid Dec. It would seem any attempt at a -EPO is transient. Fwiw, beyond this period it brings back some ridging to the east coast, although it appears to have a weak -NAO as well. The latest EPS weeklies have a more pronounced -NAO for mid month and beyond, but also more of an AK trough, and still some +heights in the SW, probably a neutral/weakly +PNA. Neither outlook is necessarily suggestive of a pronounced cold period- probably generally average temps, but changeable. Verbatim the extended GEFS surface temps are quite warm overall mid month and beyond, but I tend to not pay attention to the surface as much as h5 on the LR tools.

This was/is probably the most likely outcome, outside of the far western highlands. I have been focusing more on where the pattern ends up for mid month and beyond.

Enough of my input. I'm done here for awhile lol.Time to go eat and drink. Y'all have fun.

Pretty nice h5 look here at the end of the EPS run, but still no legit cold in our source region as depicted. If the pattern progresses as the GEFS is suggesting, there would be some improvement in that regard towards day 15. One major caveat is the MJO, which is forecast to move into the "warmer" phases, although at low amplitude. That will have to be carefully monitored. Although I think there will be a few chances over the next 10 days or so, it appears the highlands are clearly in the best position for an early season snow event at our latitude. If the GEFS is correct in continuing to amplify the western US ridge( developing -EPO) then the lowlands will be in a better position for wintry weather by mid month and beyond.

Somewhat different evolution this run. Not sure I would call that an actual block. Plenty of movement/volatility in the longwave pattern over the next week or so. The early week system ends up generally in the 50-50 position this run, but would need a better track(and not a weak wave) for significant frozen east of the mountains.

An interesting h5 look overall, but really lacking LL cold air. Would need a bowling ball to roll just to our south with dynamical cooling to get it done. Too far north this run.

Very 2013-14.

Something else interesting at the end of the 12z GFS run...been awhile since we have seen this. Something to monitor for down the road.

Some close misses to the south/missed phases on the 12z GFS but man the opportunities are not lacking.

Yeah it was the worst of the SB chevy engines for performance. Relatively small bore/long stroke. The 283 was a rev machine with the 3" stroke. The 327 was my fav with a 4" bore and 3.25" stroke. Could easily get 350 hp out of it with the right cam and the big valve heads.

Yep all the same block. That 4.125" bore on the 400 was really too big for that block. It was a terrible idea with the limited ability to remove the heat. We bored everything .040 over, or 60. or even 80 if necessary. We used to bore the 307 blocks (3.785" bore) to 4" to make a 350 lol. No one wanted a 307.

Up to 65 here. Some places locally may make a run at 70. Probably won't make it, but a balmy Thanksgiving nonetheless.

I guess the worst thing is there is no prime time game on Thanksgiving. You know how much that hurts the NFL where it counts too. That's why I had my doubts that they would postpone it.

I get it but had the game been played today the Ravens would have had zero practice time on a short week, and been without 5 starters. Also the source of the outbreaks has been identified, and it was a strength coach. Not good, but it's not like one or more of the players were not complying.

The Steelers players need to stop pissing and moaning. Yo team is 10 and 0. Get over it.

Where's the bourbon?

I'm just pretending we are now in a moderate Nino. This is fun.

Any snow, in any amount, at any time, is good.

4.27" for the month. Let's keep the eastern precip jackpot zone going over the next few weeks. Might get a slush missile mixed in with the cold rain.

Exactly a quarter inch here. And the sun has now popped through the clouds. Perfect. 60 degrees!

In other news, the source of the COVID outbreak among the Ravens players and staff is a strength and conditioning coach who was not adhering to NFL protocols.

Yeah I did look at the 6z GFS and it was a glancing blow with boundary temps a tad too mild, but colder air just west. Verbatim it looked like a cold chasing rain deal. Still time for it to morph into something a bit more favorable,

Where are all the snow map posters? I only have access via the freebie sites and I didn't bother looking lol.

Happy Thanksgiving!

I used to work at an engine remanufacturing plant. We built a bunch of the 3.8L v6 engines. Quite a few of the 4.1L too. The latter had a huge bore- reminded me of the 400 small block. Not much meat between the inner cylinder walls and the water jacket. On the 400 the outside of the cyl walls were joined. The 252 v6 may have been that way too. Cracked cylinders were common on both.