CAPE

No one can ever resist hugging whatever model pukes the most snow in their yard lol.

His maps never make sense lol Area of 8-12, then the next line out is 8.. I am in between, so 8 to 8. 8 it is!

Pretty much splits the difference between the 0z and 6z ens runs. The mean is just bouncing around a bit like the op. Wouldn't expect to see much difference between them at this range.

At this point I would expect reality to be somewhere in between the GFS and Euro simulations.

gap filler

I think we just discount the Ukie. And the Icon. Like most actual forecasters do lol. Rarely see either mentioned in an AFD.

That's happened pretty often in recent winters.

Its bouncing around a bit, but no trend, yet. 12z is essentially the same as the 0z run.

Me too. Also snow on snow. I will be hiking on Monday if this forecast holds.

The storm track is really dependent on the degree of confluence up north from pieces of vorticity rotating southeastward into the '50-50' vortex. There is no HP up top to speak of. The key difference imo remains the piece of energy(vorticity lobe) in SE Canada, west of Maine. On the GFS it stretches into a vorticity ribbon as it flows into the gyre, so there isn't as much dig southward as other guidance. The Euro, CMC, and Ukie keep that vort lobe more intact/further south, increasing confluence and acting to suppress the storm track a bit more.

Euro will likely tick north a bit more over the next few model cycles, or at least expand the precip shield in that direction.

Snippet from WPC Heavy snow disco this morning- Over the past few days models have converged on a stronger and slightly north solution regarding the initial placement of this upper low, with still some differences regarding it's track and ability to maintain strength as it moves eastward to the Mid-Atlantic. Downstream confluence is quite strong and limits to what extent the precipitation shield can lift north. The GFS/GEFS remains alone in a stronger solution which leads to more potent WAA and a farther north heavy snow axis, as well as mixing issues spanning farther north than most other guidance. The answer likely lies somewhere in between, but may be closer to the ECMWF suite given latest trends.

27 nearing sunrise, with a dusting of snow otg.

Why not compare it to the previous run? These maps have been posted every model cycle- the difference between the current and last run is all that matters at this point.

Great storm! Easily top 10 for my time here.

You're getting 8"+ I promise

Euro is pretty clearly a bit too far south given the synoptic setup, imo. That said, I don't think the GFS evolution is the final answer either. More fun to come. Most likely some sort of a compromise, which should make most folks here happy.

18Z EPS snow mean almost exactly the same as 12z.

One tick further north and the Euro is perfect. Nothing wonky about it. Just bring that FGEN band north a tad. That 16 in SBY could so easily be in my yard. sorry @Lowershoresadness

The heavier band is actually a bit further north.

Just had a heavy burst of compact snowflakes. Nice coating on the deck and ground. Temp at 33.

Basically DC and south/east in this case

18z GEFS looks pretty solid. Similar to 12z but just a tad drier. Mixing is a thing on a significant number of members for the lowlands.

GTFOH with that crap. There would likely be a significant period of non-snow ptype on the GFS from DC south and east, plus a dry slot. DC isn't getting 9 with that evolution. But go ahead and take the model output verbatim.

The GFS evolution is too wonky. Big ass dry slot. Mixing issues. Back end is decent as advertised but would probably be less impressive in realty. Much prefer the Euro, but a bit further north.