CAPE

LOL this is so perfect from Mount Holly. Not only a great and accurate description of this "event", but also in a larger sense how everything seems to come together and conspires to prevent it from snowing here. Uncanny. A long duration but mostly low impact weather system is expected for Monday night through Tuesday night. Low pressure tracking out of the southern Plains will steadily fill in and occlude as upper level support diminishes, while a weak secondary coastal wave develops south of Delmarva. The result will be an increasingly elongated but poorly organized field of precipitation over the eastern half of the country, which will bring some unsettled weather to our area. Limiting factors with this system are plentiful. Dynamically, most of our precipitation Monday night into Tuesday will be warm advection driven as the primary low tracks to our west. However, this lift source will be weakening as the system becomes more elongated and fractured. The mid level shortwave trailing the surface low will be deamplifying as it runs into ridging in place over the East. This ridging will also prevent the developing coastal wave from achieving any kind of coherent organization even as the primary low weakens. The result is a strung out mess both at the surface and aloft. In addition to weakening upper support, low level dry air will be plentiful at the onset with Canadian high pressure in place well to the north. This will erode the leading edge of the precipitation shield, and lead to a very slow northeastward advance of precipitation Monday night.

No different than usual lol.

Perspective. Other things are way more important. It's the same with rooting for a football team. I don't let in ruin my day or a whole week if the Ravens lose. I have other stuff in my life going on, as I am sure you do. Music right?

I don't look at it that way. I am way past the days of getting disappointed over things I have zero control over. I do like winter weather much more than long, brutally hot and humid summers, and I am considering moving elsewhere when life situations allow it. Might be pretty soon.

At least the UK can still take advantage of a favorable NA.

At this juncture, we can point out what we think needs to happen, but not sure any of it is fixable. Probably should root for the TPV to drop the eff in and phase.

Look where the TPV was on the CMC a few runs ago. It still produced a nice snowstorm for the area.

The interaction with the NA trough is the main issue on the last couple GFS runs imo. Doesn't allow the wave to deepen as rapidly/close to the coast. The Euro has had this look, and seems to have been the primary difference when comparing it to the better GFS runs. 12z yesterday was still a pretty decent run. Look at the difference:

It has been deteriorating for several runs now. The good waa precip gets shunted SE, and the remnant moisture from the parent low heads up over N PA and S NY.

My forecast is for "around an inch". My goal is to see flakes fall at a decent clip for 30 mins, and end up with a coating that looks more impressive than all the heavy frosts I have seen over the past couple weeks. At least blocking patterns can still make frosty mornings.

Its meso time. NAMs get too much love.

I added that last part in to induce a Ji reply.

6z EPS looks essentially the same as 0z. Probably a tick further SE.

My issue with it has always been the weakening of the wave as it moves east. Its going to dampen. Out where you are, its not really a problem I think the NAM is overly juiced on the front end, esp further eastward, but we will see what the rest of the 12z suite says. I hope I'm wrong.

Look at the numbers when he is pressured. No he was never a very mobile QB, but at 43, he struggles a lot to evade the rush. TB also runs a lot of deeper/longer developing routes. Give him time though, and he will kill you.

I wonder if this post was inspired by the latest NAM run.

I just want to see Brady pressured and knocked down a lot. He is very mediocre if he is forced to move.

^Wow that's a lot of sleet.

lol NAM brings back the thump.

Ofc nothing happens in isolation, so it's always a combination of events that conspire to screw us out of snow.

There is always going to be NS energy to contend with. That is a function of having a weak SPV/-AO. With the high amplitude ridge to the west of the shortwave, the TPV lobe should not be as disruptive as it could be with a much flatter h5 look. Even with the southward trend of that feature on the GFS, it hasn't had a ton of impact to this point. I still think the 'bigger' issue is a bit too much interaction between the shortwave and the NA trough. The Euro has been persistent with that idea, and as a result the shortwave is not as sharp, and the surface low ends up weaker/further SE.

Euro has had the same general trend with that feature. Fwiw, the CMC had the strongest/ furthest south TPV a few runs ago(almost phased), and still produced a good snowstorm. It has since shifted it further north and weaker.

The GFS has trended further west/more interaction with that feature over multiple runs. eta- To be clear, I am not saying this is going to wreck the chances of a good outcome, just that this is closer to the Euro depiction wrt this feature.