CAPE

Disco from Mount Holly this morning on our non event- the end bit is a tad interesting given the timeframe. Cant just toss the GFS though. We continue to track a fast moving frontal wave which could impact the region on Wednesday. Trends for several cycles now have been for this wave to be less amplified and to track further south, bringing colder but drier outcomes to the region. The 06.00z GFS made a small bump back north, but most guidance showed little change, with the EC and UKMET remaining essentially total misses. Whether correct or not, the other models have clearly been chasing the EC for some time now, and the forecast is weighted in that direction. But on account of a smaller weighting given to the GFS, there is still some light (around 0.5 inches) snow accumulation indicated for most of the region. The southward trends do suggest that whatever precipitation does fall, if any, it will fall mostly or entirely as snow. But with a very dry air mass in place heading into the event, we will need appreciable saturation and lift to generate any precipitation at all, and it is possible that will not happen. Overall, it looks like a minor or non-event, but still cannot rule out a more moderate snowfall.

Just seeing some flakes flying with a coating this time of year would be fun, esp since we are about to shift to a warmer pattern by the weekend.

6z GFS shifted SE and is a bit drier, but still the outlier compared to all other guidance. Maybe a dusting on the Euro, or possibly just some flakes evaporating in the dry air before hitting the ground. Most other guidance suggests a dusting to maybe a half inch in a few places.

Realistically they might win 2 more games, and that would probably get them in. They have too many practice squad players starting now to make some deep run though. They need to seriously evaluate their strength and condition program.

Getting pressure on the QB sure would help a depleted secondary. Maybe they should have kept Matthew Judon

Shoulder apparently. Next man up, for the umpteenth time this season lol.

Yeah and word is he may be out for a while. Pectoral muscle possibly. Could be done if that's the case. He has been pretty average or even below this year but still better than about anybody else they have at corner. Also Mekari may miss time with a hand injury, so Tyre Phillips the human turnstile is back at RT. Oh joy. Jackson better figure out how to get the ball out quicker or feel the pressure and tuck it and run. (Hey Roman, how about some help here?) Cant keep taking 5+ sacks a game. Ravens may make the playoffs, but tough to imagine them doing much damage with so much damage to their roster.

It was a weird call for sure. You have to take it to OT. Roman and Lamar need to figure out how to make the defense pay for bringing constant heat. Fourth game in a row of this crap. They are lucky they won 2. The O-line is certainly not going to get any better this season. The defense continues to have key breakdowns in the secondary resulting in big plays for TDs, and they don't take the ball away. Worst 8-4 team ever lol.

From Mount Holly- Model guidance has struggled mightily over the last several days with run-to-run consistency showing surface cyclogenesis occurring right along the NJ coast to well off the NJ coast. The overall trend has been rather clear though, with taking the system farther offshore. The main question has been how far offshore? The latest runs of the GFS and NAM now have the primary band of QPF over DE and southern NJ. The CMC has the QPF even further south. The further south solutions would favor more of a colder and snowier p-type, but to far of a southern translation of QPF would make the area just plain dry. Confidence here is extremely low as the the closed low over Baja California is not being sampled well and will likely continue to cause multiple fluctuations in the forecast track of the surface low in global models. Is this really still a thing lol?

They got it going on now.

Bengals! Ofc I have to root for the Chargers here. Good game.

CFS gone crazy. We can dream. Avg to above avg precip too.

That would be good timing...better than it being the case now It seems to have nailed the upcoming (crap) pattern, assuming it verifies as advertised. It had the h5 look we are currently seeing on the global ensembles over the next 2 weeks+ more than a month ago, when there was talk of HL blocking among the twitter geeks.

CFS not looking too shabby for the end of Dec into mid Jan with -EPO/-NAO combo.

So 60s instead of 80s? Sweet!!

Chargers are an odd team. They should be more consistently good. Their run D has been the biggest issue, but not today. As for the Bengals, O line issues are hard to overcome. Ravens have a below avg line with all the injuries and shifting, and they have still mostly won ugly despite it. That wont last with their schedule down the stretch. They better find a way to protect Lamar and open some holes for these shot ass RBs they are stuck with.

A bit surprised at this Bengals-Chargers game so far. Plenty of time for that Cincy O to get it going.

I think my PBP was pretty accurate.

12z GEFS took a big step in that direction.

Looks like a patch of light sprinkles/flurries passing through on the EURO

Actually I am at the tail end of a landscaping project. Some new grass yeah but got that established in October, and with the colder weather it can handle the dry. It's the new shrubs/trees I have been picking away at planting for the last month or so(all evergreens). Been having to water them occasionally.

A few days ago I was just hoping for some rain lol. Dry AF here.

While the GFS has trended south, it is still more amped/wet than the rest of the global guidance. The NAM is too, but it is always like that at range. Probably not a winning combo against everything else.