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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    After the early Pac firehose, we did finally get a mechanism in place long enough to inject some polar air into our source region- a favorable WPO/EPO and probably some impacts from the SWE. Since that time, the longwave pattern has only tickled this region briefly with any legit cold air. Just more bad luck, or failing for a different reason, but what I see is a pretty classic NINA pattern that is doing the screwing now, while at the same time we have some untimely relaxation in the HL blocking.
  2. CAPE
    Zoom out. Keep it simple. The tendency for a PAC ridge and trough out west is- totally Nina. Even a persistent -AO/NAO cannot completely mitigate that. Go back and look at the advertised H5 looks on the means for this upcoming period a week or so ago.
  3. CAPE
    Nina.
  4. CAPE
    Not really. This is pretty far from the ideal look for the lowlands of the MA if you want snow. Locate the baroclinic boundary with the location of that trough..
  5. CAPE
    Not particularly enthused for here, but you NW folks might make out better. I really have no interest in sleet/freezing rain to rain at this juncture. The overall h5 pattern is significantly flawed, but not unworkable for the interior.
  6. CAPE
    Better..
  7. CAPE
    1/25: 0.3" 1/31-2/2: 4.2” 2/7: 3.8” 2/11: 2.3" Total: 10.6”
  8. CAPE
    Yeah that is a killer esp there. You are right, this was initially advertised as a colder event. Maybe one day we will again see snow fall when there is some legit cold air in place.
  9. CAPE
    Yeah I don't do proper measurement because I don't care that much lol. 2.3" here, but temp up to 32 and it seems to be winding down.
  10. CAPE
    Pretty good yeah. Things were looking bleak until this morning. This persistent light/moderate snow on the backend is a savior.
  11. CAPE
    A couple shots from my morning Jeb walk. Right around 2" and still snowing steadily.
  12. CAPE
    Correct.
  13. CAPE
    Precip total from the 6z Euro. GFS is lighter.
  14. CAPE
    I was wondering. Not heading down there today.
  15. CAPE
    Looks pretty weak for the region in general. A light sleet/freezing rain event.
  16. CAPE
    Steady light snow continues to fall here. Quite pretty out and so quiet. 1.5" currently. Maybe I can get to 2", which would at least get close to the low end of what was forecast. Probably will head out for a hike. Dastardly combo of a sneaky warm layer and a precip dead zone kind of messed things up here.
  17. CAPE
    Unfortunately it looks like for the most part the only non rain p-type we will be seeing this weekend into next week will be sleet/freezing rain. Not really interested in the ice either, with all the trees I have. Sleet is ok and I guess I am used to the idea now with all the sleet I got here last night lol.
  18. CAPE
    Steady light to moderate snow falling here now. No sleet! Lets see how long this lasts.
  19. CAPE
    I think that is probably going to weaken some and sink more southward along the boundary in the wake of wave one.
  20. CAPE
    Looks like the dry zone has finally passed and the radar is filling a bit. The snow/sleet mix is back lol. Should be some cooling aloft on the backside of this, so maybe I can salvage a couple hours of mostly snow here this morning.
  21. CAPE
    A bit. Looks like the HRRR gets some virga to here lol. RGEM maybe a few flakes. Last 2 runs of the RGEM really captured the light precip zone here overnight pretty well, although it indicated mostly snow, which was incorrect.
  22. CAPE
    The trends were not good. By 18z almost all guidance had the 850 0 line literally right over me or just south, and other than one 20 min period when I had some moderate snow falling, it was mostly sleet with flakes mixed in. Don't think I had the rates here to overcome that warm layer for the most part. I am guessing places just north of me did pretty well.
  23. CAPE
    Essentially a 4 hour event there. Didn't really get going until around 11pm, got way more sleet than snow, and it hasn't been doing anything significant since 330 am lol. An inch or so of frozen stuff out there. Looks like winter at least.
  24. CAPE
    Congrats Baltimore folks. Been mostly a sleetfest here. Must be a sneaky warm layer up there somewhere. The GFS nailed the dry zone just south of the good band across the northern counties. Got that here too.
  25. CAPE
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