CAPE

Realistically snow has not been on the table for a while now outside of far NW areas maybe. The late next week threat still holds some promise.

Remember a week ago when the advertised h5 look for the upcoming period looked like this? What we are actually seeing is a simple adjustment to what is more typical for a Nina. Shift the phase of the longwave pattern west and amp the SE ridge.

WB surface maps are better than TT, but they are still bad. You cannot glean anything other than a general idea, which is never good enough. Snow maps are awful ofc. Only surface based map worth looking at(other than temps, pressure etc) is precip.

Apparently that was just Ji being Ji. He is a funny guy, ya know.

Might be the case well NW, but not likely here, thankfully.

I wish it was rain/green. That would be devastating here. Luckily, I don't believe it for a second. Light ice, sure. If I have temps in the low to mid 20s here for that duration, history says it wont be freezing rain. Actual outcome given the pattern- those temps will be 10 degrees warmer.

lol you blamed it on the GFS.

Why the fuuck are y'all so lazy? Surface p-type maps are garbage.

For shits sake its not the GFS. Or the RGEM. It is TT. Goddamn.

That is one hellacious ice storm on the GFS. I for one hope it is wrong.

I know you play dumb a lot, but you clearly aren't. Stop.

If you aren't into ice, the next week weather-wise is probably not your thing. It ain't mine lol.

Nice AFD from Mount Holly on the "potential" for the upcoming week- An active weather pattern is expected to continue through next week as two additional storms affect the region over the course of the work week. The clash of air masses over the CONUS through next week is quite impressive. Extreme cold air over the central US, largely driven by a strong -AO and fragmented polar vortex, will collide with much warmer air over the Southeast as we see the development of persistent Southeast ridging, which is favored by the La Nina ENSO state. The strong baroclinicity between these two air masses will keep the storm track active with weather systems impacting the mid- Atlantic about every other day. This will be a difficult pattern to forecast, as the presence of so many systems in short order (including from the current week) is playing havoc with the models. In addition, the thermal profiles of these storms will be challenging as the increasingly strong Southeast ridging will likely favor warmer outcomes with time, but with still a lot of cold air nearby which is often slow to scour out of the low levels. Of the two systems expected this week, the one Monday night into Tuesday currently appears to be the "colder" of the two, with a better chance for more warm air to become involved with the second system moving in towards Thursday. However, both of these systems appear to have the potential to produce large areas of mixed precipitation, with various ptypes likely including opportunities for freezing rain.

lol did you read the second part of my post? How about this- "traditional, typical Nino"

I agree. Easy answer is when we do get cold building in our source region, the typical pattern in a Nina tends to dump it too far west, but that is a generalization, and not always the case. There is more to it than this.

This happens a lot in a Nina. In Ninos things often seem to come together exactly when we need them to. Ofc lately there are probably some other factors at play, regardless of ENSO state..

I think there is definitely something to this. With an active stj plus the propensity for HL blocking in a Nino, it just seems to work out better for our area, the lowlands in particular. Certainly there is plenty of variability here too, depending on the exact location and strength of the Nino event, as well as other indices. But in general I believe the data is supportive.

After the early Pac firehose, we did finally get a mechanism in place long enough to inject some polar air into our source region- a favorable WPO/EPO and probably some impacts from the SWE. Since that time, the longwave pattern has only tickled this region briefly with any legit cold air. Just more bad luck, or failing for a different reason, but what I see is a pretty classic NINA pattern that is doing the screwing now, while at the same time we have some untimely relaxation in the HL blocking.

Zoom out. Keep it simple. The tendency for a PAC ridge and trough out west is- totally Nina. Even a persistent -AO/NAO cannot completely mitigate that. Go back and look at the advertised H5 looks on the means for this upcoming period a week or so ago.

Nina.

Not really. This is pretty far from the ideal look for the lowlands of the MA if you want snow. Locate the baroclinic boundary with the location of that trough..

Not particularly enthused for here, but you NW folks might make out better. I really have no interest in sleet/freezing rain to rain at this juncture. The overall h5 pattern is significantly flawed, but not unworkable for the interior.

Better..

1/25: 0.3" 1/31-2/2: 4.2” 2/7: 3.8” 2/11: 2.3" Total: 10.6”

Yeah that is a killer esp there. You are right, this was initially advertised as a colder event. Maybe one day we will again see snow fall when there is some legit cold air in place.