CAPE

Not really LR anymore, but the mid to late week storm looks like it may be an impressive rain producer for our region. Latest AFD from Mount Holly- As the low approaches the CWA Wednesday afternoon and evening, considerable large-scale lift will be in place via right- entrance region upper divergence from a favorably positioned 250-mb jet streak, strong differential cyclonic vorticity advection downstream of the advancing, more neutrally-tilted trough, and substantial warm/moist advection on the northern periphery of a poleward-advancing warm sector. Models indicate widespread precipitation developing in this regime, convectively enhanced near the approaching front and in vicinity of the intensifying surface low. Model soundings do indicate some instability in the pre-frontal warm sector, especially if the surface low tracks farther west. Have added thunder to the forecast for much of the region Wednesday afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall is quite possible with this setup, especially since upper-level flow will become oriented mostly parallel to the approaching front (thanks in large part to the high- amplitude ridging downstream). QPF of 1-2+ inches is depicted with the CMC/ECMWF (50+ percent less in the GFS/ICON). Given the potential convective enhancement of the precipitation and a couple of antecedent soaking rain events, this seems like a setup that favors some flooding potential. Will monitor this closely as the event approaches. In addition, very strong cold advection will occur on the upstream side of the cold front, with temperatures dropping 10-20 degrees in a matter of a few hours after frontal passage. The cold conveyor belt of the intensifying surface low, along with favorable frontogenetical forcing/deformation, may produce a band of precipitation on the west/northwest side of the low that lingers for several hours. Thermal profiles would favor a switchover to snow for the southern Poconos and far northwest New Jersey, perhaps resulting in some accumulations Thursday morning.

Lol wait until Wed-Thurs.

Yes it is, and thanks. Did it on the cheap a couple years ago and it turned out pretty good. The motivation was to further lessen the grass area, which is hard as hell to keep going in the woods and with the silty/sandy soil here. The wetland is back in the woods towards the left in that photo.

The morning round would be elevated convection on the backside of the initial wave with the warm front. If there is a decent period of clearing, the afternoon round might be a tad interesting. Without surface heating the inversion will hold and any severe will be isolated at best. Severe looks more likely in central and esp SE VA.

After mowing the chickweed down, the grass(and clover) look pretty good. Beginning of the "good lawn " period. That will last until about mid June here, then it will gradually burn to hell from the Solstice through August. Then it is rinse and repeat in the Fall. Or just give up lol.

Enhanced risk for SE VA now.

Time to mow the chickweed.

Euro/EPS is more amplified and not as progressive as the GFS, so that would be the evolution to root for to get a chance of frozen for the MA. Even that as depicted would favor the western highlands and maybe places like NE PA- typical climo favored regions for Spring snow.

43 this morning. Looks like a beautiful Spring day. Good day to be outside. Tomorrow not so much.

Friday looks like the best day for winter-like conditions right now. Saturday doesn't look bad either, but probably above freezing by afternoon.

Sure it can snow in early April. Even had a couple inches here years ago. This doesn't look like the synoptic setup to do it though. Basically it would be an anafrontal deal. That will be cold chasing rain most of the time, and esp in Spring. Looks pretty good for interior NE, with a coastal low forming up that way.

They needed a veteran presence. They have a bunch of young WRs, and they will probably draft another one. Less pressure to make it a first round pick though, where they usually bust picking a receiver. Interestingly, Watkin's best season was in Buffalo when Roman was the OC.

We have seen this crap from models for months lol. Probably a 100" of digital snow for the winter here from any one of those ens, mostly at this range. Mount Holly's FA goes up to the Poconos. They aren't too impressed with the threat of frozen even there. They could be wrong ofc, but I will easily side with climo on April 1. This doesn't look like some historic event on the means. Sure there may be some wet flakes in northern areas as the precip ends, but that is pretty pedestrian. If that floats your boat, well, ok.

70 with modest winds. WA was not necessary here.

This is reality, from Mount Holly. Op models esp the GFS are LOL. We could barely get enough cold for snow in the heart of winter. The next system of note approaches later Wednesday into Thursday with another chance for some rain/thunderstorms/hydro concerns as a cold front crosses the forecast area. Rain is expected to start moving into the region later Wednesday through Thursday. Winds will pick up behind the cold front on Thursday. Temperatures drop off behind the departing cold front with overnight lows dropping to the 20s to lower 30s. The precipitation is expected to cut off before the cold air arrives so not expecting much, if any, mixing to occur. Highs look to struggle to remain in the 40s across the forecast area on Friday.

This sounds ominous. I will prepare to take shelter. From Mount Holly AFD- As the system`s cold front approaches from the west into the late afternoon and evening, MLCAPE values should be on the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg (possibly even higher across Delmarva and southern NJ) across much of the inland portions of the area. Meanwhile, deep layer shear will be quite strong (50-60+ kts) across the warm sector and low-level shear will also be very strong. Forecast effective SRH values will be on the order of 300-400 m2/s2 with large curved hodographs, so the kinematic profile will support organized storms and rotating updrafts of any deep convection that develops in the warm sector or along the cold front. It`s still a little too far out to determine the convective evolution, but this severe event needs to be monitored very closely. SPC has highlighted southern portions of the forecast area with a threat of significant severe weather, and damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes are all possible Sunday afternoon and evening.

Wind picking up now. Temp down to 76.

80 here. Breezy, but no big wind yet.

The grass seed I planted around March 10 is now actual grass, and the existing grass is deep green. Yeah baby.

Newest member- King of Prussia Dental Ass

From Mount Holly this morning- By Sunday afternoon the precipitation field will likely take on a more convective appearance as elevated instability develops. The primary fcst question then becomes, can we warm enough near the surface to overcome the fairly stout low-lvl inversion that is progged to be in place? If we can... and thus generate sfc- based instability there would be an appreciable severe threat as kinematics will not be lacking with 850mb winds around 60-70kts and 925mb winds up to 50kts. However, at this time, the thermal evolution is not clear, particularly given the low-lvl cloud cover and overunning precipitation earlier in the day. This uncertainty is partially quantified by the fact that the NBM`s IQR for Sunday`s MaxTs is 7-9 degrees, which represents a higher than usual spread in its components. If storms remain elevated it should be a fairly mundane spring rainfall event, with current QPF in the 0.75-1 inch range (although with convection in play locally higher totals are possible).

Drinking a 120. Just felt like that kind of a day. Really gotten green out there. My grass is coming to life. Along with the moss, clover, and dandelions. Embrace the variety.

Best pizza ever is wood fired, gorgonzola cheese, caramelized onions- can stop right there- or add some pear slices for that extra layer of flavor and contrast. No red sauce obviously.

I eat avocado on or with anything. Never tried the juice, but I have a bottle of avocado oil.

Avocado. Not even close.