CAPE

38 with light rain.

The potential can be seen on various op runs, but on most runs it's a miss. Given that, it makes sense we consistently see late/offshore on the ens mean, with a few members each run resembling the op when there is a hit. The progressive flow, amplifying LW pattern, and issues with resolving the subtle interactions between all the moving parts make it unlikely that we will see a consistent signal on the ops or ensembles outside of 4-5 days. Maybe by Thursday we will have a better idea. For now, we just can't know- although some probably think they do lol.

It's been more than 10 years lol, but idk the frequency. Maybe every 20? Psu would know.

Destructive interference in the NS. Same with the Euro. The 0z run showed the way, but good luck getting that timing in reality.

The ensembles have not been too enthused. But hey we can just ignore that! Op runs will lead the way.

32 with some spotty drizzle driving in this morning.

Pretty similar to Jan 3. 60 degrees the afternoon before, and snow by early morning with temps falling through the 20s during the day.

The 0z Euro had a more amplified western US ridge with a favorable axis, and thus more space to work with- and it got it done with a perfectly timed NS shortwave dropping down. GFS was not as amped with a broader ridge and the axis was further east, so not much room and any phase/partial phase happens too late. This has a chance, but an offshore low is probably (again) favored with this set up.

The NAO has been mostly around neutral, so it hasn't been a detriment. Having transient ridging in the NAO domain often doesn't do much to help us though with storm development and track. Imo it has had little to no influence with the storms that worked out(for eastern areas) this winter. That was mostly about timing and luck. When we talk about a -NAO, it is usually in the context of persistent blocking that also involves a quasi stationary low adjacent to it, which sustains the blocked flow. That gives us a more favorable storm track(further south) and slows the progression of developing storms. It somewhat inhibits inland tracks but also allows earlier development to our SW (rather than right at or off the coast as we have seen so often this winter), and aids in keeping the cold air in place during the storm- HP to our N/NW cant fly off the coast and exit stage right.

The Pacific has been largely favorable the past month though, with a mechanism for delivery of legit cold into our source region. Not really comparable to the 'pacific puke' problem we had much of last winter, where the AO/NAO was favorable for extended periods but did little good because there was no cold to work with.

Low of 17 here. Mount Holly discussion of freezing drizzle potential for tonight- Some of the hi-res guidance is suggesting the resulting WAA inversion above the surface will be strong enough to produce some areas of light drizzle/freezing drizzle across the coastal plain (and especially along the immediate coast), mainly south/east of I-95 in the pre-dawn hours Monday. The DGZ will remain unsaturated during this time, so any precipitation should be mostly drizzle. Areas that remain near or below freezing would experience light freezing drizzle (mainly inland away from the immediate coast), but ground and air temperatures should remain very marginal for any widespread impacts. Long story short, given the low confidence in the occurrence of this drizzle and the marginal temperatures where the drizzle is more likely to occur near the coast, confidence is too low to warrant adding any ice accretion to the forecast and too low to issue any headlines for this threat. Nevertheless, a short- fused hazard may be realized late tonight and early Monday morning. We will continue to monitor this potential.

No complaints here either, but it would be nice to get lucky another time or 2. Haven't sniffed 30" since the winters of 2014 and 15.

Just under 20" here, and had snow otg for 15+ days between between Jan 3 and Feb 3.

I doubt it is "over", but our chances going forward will likely be similar to what we have already experienced, any of which will require plenty of timing to work out. A legit block does not look to be in the cards, so we continue to go with the (progressive) flow.

I quickly scanned through the members focusing on the 14-15th window- there are 3-4 members(out of 50) on the 0z EPS that have low pressure to our SE and tucked close to the coast- healthy storms that produce some significant snow for our region. The majority are offshore or all NS. Overall theme is progressive/offshore/late.

Not much to note. Looking at the EPS, the Monday night deal looks like light rain/drizzle/maybe fr drizzle? along the coast. Beyond that enjoy a week of partly to mostly sunny with temps in the mid to upper 40s. Maybe we get colder next weekend.

Be careful. They play an important role in NWP. At this juncture they are indicating that you may be disappointed if you expect the depiction on the latest op runs to be the correct outcome.

I'll use the 18z GFS vs 18z GEFS to illustrate- Phase underway here.. Not happening on the ens mean..

The advertised pattern is highly chaotic with energy riding over an amplifying western US ridge and interacting with additional energy associated with the TPV, then there is also energy undercutting the western ridge and taking the southern route. The op runs are (frequently) phasing energy dropping down from the NS with existing energy further south, while the ensemble runs largely have less interaction or suggest a much later phase. The difference in resolution probably plays a big part in the disparate projected outcomes, especially at this range. In simple terms, we just cant know yet.

12z GFS/GEFS is further east than 6z. Probably just some light rain/snow showers as it stands now.

That northern stream energy dropping down has been digging further west on recent runs, helping to turn the flow a bit more NE out in front. The coastal low develops out in front of the elongated ribbon of vorticity, underneath a developing strong upper jet. The ultimate phase is going to happen too late, but trends suggest a glancing blow is possible. Light precip probably won't get it done. Need some rates to overcome the marginal low level temps.

28 this morning. Very light coating of snow/sleet on the deck

Nothing else to track in the near term. Pretty low probability this becomes anything significant, but still some uncertainty as the ens means have generally been further west of recent op runs. Best case scenario is probably a coating to an inch in places if precip can fall for a few hours with some intensity, and overcome the warmish low levels. It would occur mostly overnight, which gives it a better chance.