CAPE
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we simply can't know. weather53 can explain why in detail.
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For late week/weekend, GFS still has a closed ULL that slowly moves eastward, while the Euro has an open trough that is more progressive. GEFS looks more like the EPS/Euro op. If the GFS is more correct, the weekend would feature a continuation of showers and remain on the humid side.
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Lawn is hanging in there. The heat this week will provide a crucial test of its durability. No mosquitos at all. "Bog" dried up on schedule, like the days when we used to have normal weather.
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Well you aren't getting your beloved face melting 100. Sorry.
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Looks like it took a step towards the GFS with more of a cut off h5 look. That's all I can glean from TT. More rain next weekend?
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87/73 Could be worse, and it will be the next few days.
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EPS and GEFS suggest the front will clear in time for a nice weekend, esp Sunday. No guarantee though, given the setup. GFS and CMC op runs both dig the h5 energy further west and close it off, then bring it east later, so we stay on the active side with rain chances into next weekend. Euro op doesn't dig it as much or as far west and the dry/cooler air gets here quicker.
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Not hot, but it sure is sultry. 82/76
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79 here. I doubt its going to make it to 88. Given its mid afternoon and the ground is wet, evaporation is going to inhibit surface temp rise.
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You never do with op runs at range, as all of us here are well aware of. 12z GEFS is supportive of the op, fwiw.
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Finally sunny here now. Picked up 0.32" of rain this morning.
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^Ofc EJ would prefer 100/80 rather than the GFS advertised 78/55 for the 4th. I have some doubts about the WA ridge breaking down/moving out that quickly this time of year. Previous runs had the front stalled through next weekend with continuation of warm/humid and chances of rain. CMC still has that scenario.
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Everyone should be rooting for the 12z GFS progression. Multiple rounds of rain late week with the slow moving front then it clears early Saturday. Below normal temps for 4th of July.
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Looks like high temps may bust low here if it doesn't clear up in the next hour or so. Not hating the clouds and rain at all. Pleasant surprise. One less day of blazing sun and heat.
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Getting a tropical downpour here currently.
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More stuff developing just to the south. Moisture laden dark clouds looking in that direction. Maybe I an catch another quick downpour. Probably little chance for rain here until later in the week after today. Bermuda high subsidence.
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I see Mt Holly mentioned it in their AM disco, but they weren't necessarily buying it lol. Some guidance (GFS/HRRR) develops some convection this morning in Delmarva and southward, where stronger differential heating may occur from the retreating low cloud deck (and also potential influence from developing sea/bay breezes). However, this seems overdone given the existing pattern, particularly given the lack of a stronger larger-scale lifting mechanism.
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GFS had it and some of the Mesos. HRRR pretty much nailed it. I caught the NW edge as that line was developing.
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I wish grass had the same will to survive as weeds. You can do everything right and then watch the grass wither away in the midsummer heat. Abuse the eff out of a weed and it comes right back. Robust.
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75/74. Tropical. Partly sunny now.
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Nice downpour just moved through. Quick tenth of an inch.
