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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    We might get a better idea about the outcome over the next 20 or so runs.
  2. CAPE
    The NS energy is stronger with a much sharper shortwave this run. That induces a low pressure at the surface over the GLs and also causes the coastal low to form further north as that sharp shortwave goes negative. This "trend" shows up on the 12z ensemble run as well. NS dominance with coastal lows forming to our NE in a Nina... a shocker!
  3. CAPE
    This is why I almost exclusively post about the synoptics using the ensembles. Op runs are practically useless at this range.
  4. CAPE
    Lol bust! I am guessing it gets heavier/colder as the day progresses. Rates actually work for places like that, all the time. We cant have nice things.
  5. CAPE
    I don't think it matters what we root for lol. NS dominant with a weak/suppressed southern wave is always a viable outcome.
  6. CAPE
    Watch it snow in Truckee. 11-17 today and 13-19 tonight. https://hdontap.com/index.php/video/stream/downtown-truckee-california
  7. CAPE
    Not a bad set up. I would prefer something flatter/ less amped. Colder outcome and could produce a light to moderate frozen event for the MA. Having the developing -NAO and the 50-50 vortex in place can work in our favor.
  8. CAPE
    The Euro ensemble gets the southern energy involved and has a storm.
  9. CAPE
    Perhaps a bit of good news on Lamar- https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/32852640/baltimore-ravens-qb-lamar-jackson-carted-ankle-injury
  10. CAPE
  11. CAPE
    Signal is still there on the ensembles for something next week. We just can't know the details.
  12. CAPE
    That was 0z. 6z has a low cutting to Green Bay. Op runs day 10+ are for entertainment purposes only.
  13. CAPE
    This has already been established as the CAPE storm. I take no responsibility for complete failure however.
  14. CAPE
    Unless Mekari and Lamar are back next week, this season is probably over given the schedule. The O-line as currently constructed simply gets overpowered much of the time.
  15. CAPE
    That was the pattern that produced the bomb cyclone I think. One of those 'bad luck' deals for most of the subforum.
  16. CAPE
    I think using the word luck is fine. Maybe it's more like randomness. There are failure modes even when guidance looks good at say 3 days out, due to inevitable errors in timing of wave interactions, etc. There is almost always a fine line in most winter storm situations in this region(esp the cities and east), and favorable patterns for snow generally don't last that long, so 'wasting' them often amounts to 2 or 3 medium range threats that don't work out for one reason or another.
  17. CAPE
    Ended up with 0.52" here.
  18. CAPE
    All 3 globals are hinting at a storm during that period now. Euro amped, GFS too far north, CMC keeps all the moisture south. Long way to go, but the pattern looks supportive for something trackable during that time.
  19. CAPE
    Squall line approaching here now. Just some general rain and breezy now. Temp is 60 and 0.33" so far.
  20. CAPE
    I kinda like the period a few days later. Although suppression/shredding is a risk, it looks more supportive of frozen.
  21. CAPE
    This. To me those maps(snow maps in general) have value only when we have a discrete threat in sight, when we are in a 'good' pattern. Otherwise they usually produce the generic 10-30%, 1-3" output per 15 days, depending on exact location. Unless we are in a putrid pattern when they show literally nothing.
  22. CAPE
    High of 64 here. No sun today. Currently raining with this thin meandering training line. On the NW edge of it. Pours briefly then shuts off, over and over lol. Should be SE of here shortly. 0.21"
  23. CAPE
    CFS 7-day mean for first week of Jan. It isn't bone dry either.
  24. CAPE
    H5 on the 6z GEFS looks super nice towards the end of the run. Pretty classic looking -NAO with low heights underneath off the Canadian Maritimes, -WPO/EPO, and western trough expanding eastward.
  25. CAPE
    Pretty decent signal on the 0z GEFS for a west to east moving wave in the late Sunday to early Tuesday timeframe. Some chilly enough air to the north to keep an eye on it as advertised. A handful of members indicate some frozen for the region.
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