CAPE

Latest CFS forecast looks okay.

Its effed up. I looked this morning and it just had the gray and no lines plotted. The latest Euro forecast seems to get stuck in phase 7 for a while.

Im gonna pretend that is snow cover Got some work to do. At least the model is indicating a chance of frozen southward in the LR. We got nothing for the next week at least.

EPS is pretty chilly coast to coast at the end of the run.

Low of 22

Steelers

And even if they would have made it, Rodgers gets the ball back in regulation with probably 40 seconds left and 2 timeouts only needing a FG to win. This one really made no sense.

And again the play design was dumb. A rollout to Andrews with not much space. There were no other receiver options on the play unless Huntley reversed and ran back the other way in which case he would probably have been sacked.

Taking the FG on the first drive might have helped too.

18z GEFS is back to looking more like the EPS in the EPO domain for early Jan.

EPS looks better up top than previous runs. I hope Weather Will doesn't panic because it doesn't yet have blue over us on this panel, and it did previously.

We(collectively) tend to pay too much attention to the advertised LR pattern/teleconnections when we are currently in a shutout pattern, esp when it offers some promise of better times. Can't get to focused on the details when we are looking at guidance 10+ days out.

Need to watch the 'trends' on the means with the Pacific ridge in the LR. Really want that more poleward (-EPO) rather than a broad, flat ridge further south/west, otherwise it might be tough to get cold air bleeding southeastward without a hella west based -NAO. The GEFS has moved in that direction, although it seems to shift the ridge northward right at the end of the run. That's the primary reason for it delaying the eastward progression of cold, but the -NAO is also less impressive the last couple runs. Really need that to be stout if the Pac isn't going to be at least somewhat favorable.

Not a huge fan of Heavy Seas in general, but the Double Cannon DIPA is a goodie. Nice balance of hops and malt, a bit creamy, very drinkable. The 9.5% abv is very well hidden.

Now if you had said the -EPO has faded on the last couple runs of the GEFS, I might agree.

Judah knows his shit. He always claims victory, one way or another. Pinned that baby!

The ens mean is 4-6" for areas east of the mountains for the same period. LR snow maps all suck, but isolating the control run is utterly useless. We could each draw up our best eye candy maps and it would be just as likely to verify.. as in not likely.

After a few drops this morning, no precip in the forecast over the next 7 days. Great hiking weather.

Abnormally dry in portions of MD. Definitely been dry the last couple months here. https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?MD

Assuming they lose today, Ravens are probably going to finish with a 9-8 record, and that probably won't get them in. If they can find 2 more wins, 10-7 likely gets them in, as they hold the head-to-head tiebreakers against the Chargers, Colts, and Broncos. The game at Cincy will be huge, and they will likely have to beat the Steelers.

Lamar is likely out, and I just saw Watkins is on the COVID list. The OL and secondary are a mess. Roman is still the OC. The Ravens will play hard, but the Packers are simply a much better team right now.

I get ya, but given the situation with the Mets- underachievers and all the pressure to win now- they probably needed to go with a more well known, proven manager.

Teleconnections on the 0z GEFS for the beginning of Jan: Significantly negative AO and NAO, -EPO, slightly negative PNA. EPS is very similar. As advertised that h5 look is probably about as good as it gets in a Nina. Will it verify, and will it actually produce anything? Watching it play out will be the 'fun' part, weather weenies.

Some unnecessary panic up in here today. Nothing has changed on the means. Wanting cold and snow for Xmas is cute and sweet and romantic and all, but it doesn't happen too often in this area.