CAPE

That looks quite a bit more 'impressive' than the exact same panel on TT. Gotta love WB.

A little wind.. a little rain. 0.33" lol. Looks like some heavier stuff incoming. I'm way good with getting an inch or less total here. Might get more interesting over the next few hours.

Latest from the CFS for week 6 fwiw. Not a terrible look up top and in the EPAC at h5. Suggestive of -EPO/AO and at least a neutral NAO. Verbatim no cold air anywhere close by though lol.

I'm not overly enthused about some anomalously 'favorable' pattern setting up over the next month. Guidance has been persistent in suggesting some seasonable weather and even a period of slightly below normal temps, mostly courtesy of a +PNA, so I will gladly take that if it is also mostly dry. We'll see how things look on guidance in a few weeks as we head into December. For many of us, getting a winter storm in November or even early December is pretty rare.

Take on severe potential from Mount Holly- Severe thunderstorms/tornadoes: Instability will be quite limited. However, even with a marginal instability, a few thunderstorms are possible, primarily in Delmarva. Any thunderstorms in the vicinity of the occluded front will be developing in an area with significant wind shear and helicity. Thus, rotating storms will be possible in this area. The higher threat for this looks to be further south from our region near the front during the period of max mixing, but will have to watch if the front progresses north faster than currently forecast, the risk for rotating storms could develop as far north as northern Delmarva.

October...November.. all the same with the rate of change of snow cover advance in Eurasia evidently. goin' weaken that PV!

we good for early winter.

Other than some moderate to heavy rainfall, the wind looks to be a bit of a concern here under a strong LLJ, with gusts of 45 mph possible tomorrow. Looks like the immediate coasts of MD and DE could see some 55 mph gusts.

A few would meltdown. Most won't care much. I sure wouldn't. A Mild winter would be lovely for doing outside stuff. I would embrace it.

Anyone who posts here would (should) know better.

Mirror?

Delicious.

1.48"

0.35" from that initial line. Moved through quick.

Gusting here too. Sideways rain against the south side of the house.

Thunder and heavy rain suddenly.

Snowing hard again there now. Roads may soon re-cave.

I am on record stating median snowfall is a reasonable expectation. Maybe Bomb Cyclone II will happen and track a little closer.

Time sensitive! Looked intense earlier. Lots of higher elevation mountain cams out there but they are mostly all plastered with snow or not working.

Looks fun in Truckee http://tahoetopia.com/webcam/downtown-truckee

The Euro depiction looks reasonable given the advertised pattern and climo. A good set up for the western highlands to see some accumulating snow.

Then free up space. Content, My attachments, check the boxes, delete.

Eastern NJ up into SNE looks to get clobbered pretty good with heavy rain from this event. Close call for our area, and even here not sure I will see the 1-2" in the forecast. The coastal low looks to form late and track a bit too far offshore, which is always tricky at our latitude wrt to getting in on the good precip. This is like training for what is likey to come this winter lol.

I never thought they would be 5-2 given the crazy run of injuries right before the season started, and no Stanley and no Boyle(yet). There is still plenty to fix. Defense simply needs to play better. Offense could use a few more healthy contributors.

-(-PNA)!