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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    It is a touchy setup with a cold HP in place but relaxing leading in, and no block/50-50. Need some degree of amplification, but not TOO much. The interaction with NS energy is critical. Don't want the southern shortwave to dampen in the wake of a vorticity lobe, but if one drops in just behind at the wrong time we may have a repeat of last weekend.
  2. CAPE
    The western US ridge orientation and amplitude is about perfect this run, and just enough interaction from the energy rotating down from the TPV. Didn't have that last run. Might be gone next run, or be too much. The subtleties.
  3. CAPE
    I would lock in that evolution and track for my yard.
  4. CAPE
    Mount Holly's take this morning on the late week potential- The setup becomes fairly interesting by the end of the week, with the cold surface high retreating to our north and east downstream of a digging trough in the central U.S. This has potential to develop a surface low near or off the Southeast coast by the end of the week into the weekend, with cold air lingering in the Northeast poleward of the low. Of course, solutions by this point are widely varying, with the 00z ECMWF shifting the system well offshore (as opposed to the prior 12z ECMWF, which lifts a strong low right through the heart of the CWA next weekend). The CMC is weaker overall with the system, but farther west than the 00z ECMWF. The 00z GFS gives much of the area a healthy winter storm. Much too early to pick and choose a solution, with consensus suggesting the best chances for precipitation in our area just beyond the forecast period anyway.
  5. CAPE
    Progressive flow, and lots of NS action. 0z didn't quite work out(verbatim) for much of our area. The W US ridge axis is a tad too far east(and not as amped) as advertised, which doesn't help in this regime. With absolutely no blocking, placement and timing of the key features are critical. Ofc they are hard to identify specifically and change from run to run this far out. The NS energy dropping down the east side of the ridge helped NE on the 0z GFS run. Ops are gonna be chaotic for a few more days I think. The GEFS and EPS continue with the general idea of most of the action offshore for this period.
  6. CAPE
    Judah?
  7. CAPE
    Lol 500mb Maps translates into surface maps...500 mb will be as wrong as surface Maps 5 days out But you have zero clue or context looking at only surface panels. The upper levels dictate what happens at the surface, and subtle changes upstairs can make big differences. You know all this, but you still cant help yourself lol. Instant gratification seeking doesn't work too well in tracking storms.
  8. CAPE
    If you aren't posting maps it must be bad lol. I actually looked- there isn't much to say really. A sprinkle/snow shower maybe? Still time though!
  9. CAPE
    I see lots of deep red. HL blocking?
  10. CAPE
    Must have done pretty well with the anafrontal deal yesterday. Barely a coating here but the radar looked better down that way. Hopefully you see an inch or 2 at least. Snow at the beach is pretty cool.
  11. CAPE
    it used to be 'blocking', but we so rarely see it anymore it can't be a buzz word.
  12. CAPE
    The tendency lately in this progressive pattern with Arctic cold air pressing southeast is for weakening shortwaves moving eastward, and low pressure developing offshore along the thermal boundary, then scooting out. The op runs today are depicting the degree and timing of the amplification to be more favorable for a track up along the coast. Time will tell if this will be any different than recent outcomes.
  13. CAPE
    I hate the stuff. Especially not good on concrete. The effects can be damaging depending on the age, quality.
  14. CAPE
    The issue is addiction to the "pretty" surface/p-type maps. Completely useless at range and from run to run. Even a vet like Ji can't resist though. He still melts down when an op run doesn't show the blues over his yard.
  15. CAPE
    You must have salted the eff out of your driveway and walkway. Enjoy.
  16. CAPE
    That's where it's at, until we have a discrete threat in range and mostly inside 3 days. Can't stress enough how little I look at surface maps outside of day 5. Probably only when looking at the ens mean and advertised member low positions.
  17. CAPE
    I tend to agree with you on this one.
  18. CAPE
    A lot of these people should never look at an op run at range, esp consecutive cycles. I mean, 12z and 18z are so close and exactly what we(collectively) want to see at this juncture.
  19. CAPE
    Good point. The 12z run had an impressive anticyclonic(over the top) wave break. Still highly amplified, but not so much this run. Something somewhat in between would probably work, dependent on timing of NS energy associated with the TPV. Lots of moving parts.
  20. CAPE
    It's a singular op run, a full week out y'all. This gives more support to the ultimate(and desirable) outcome.
  21. CAPE
    Timing is always a major factor esp when the flow is progressive. In a sense, a blocky pattern is much easier, esp in a Nino when its all about the stj. Just get the block and wait for the right wave.
  22. CAPE
    Shortwave is sharper/deeper. The difference is in the NS. Timing.
  23. CAPE
    Yep the general idea is the same, so the specific outcome isn't that relevant at this range.
  24. CAPE
    HH GFS has more blue over my yard instead of just green for Tuesday-Wed. I think that's good.
  25. CAPE
    Drink more high gravity beer to disintegrate it. Seems like a good idea even if there are no facts to support it.
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