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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    It has been off for the past few storms on important details, even inside 36 hours. The storm 2 weeks ago it still had my yard getting 10-12" just before game time, while every other model was 5-6 with the heavier snow east. In this case it has been persistent with high end advisory/low end warning snowfall across this area. No other model shows that, and, IT'S NOT HAPPENING!
  2. CAPE
    Might as well look at all the Mesos at this juncture.
  3. CAPE
    The changes have been pretty subtle though, and all small in scale. Mostly it's minor shifts in the location/duration/strength of the jet streak on the front side of the trough that are going to make the difference between a coating, and maybe 2-3 inches. That works for most here given how things have played out this winter.
  4. CAPE
    Agree, but this has been the goal for this thread since the beginning. Tracking the small scale features, and hoping for a modest event vs smoking cirrus for places further north. Trends have been good for that. The larger scale stuff has been baked in for days.
  5. CAPE
    FV3. Probably an indicator of what the GFS will look like.
  6. CAPE
  7. CAPE
    NW crew are gonna like the NAM nest.
  8. CAPE
    12k NAM is useless lol. The random blobs and holes shift every run. 3km continues to look steady and good for most.
  9. CAPE
  10. CAPE
    My local forecast is for a max of 2", which aligns with my thoughts yesterday for my yard, despite what the GFS still shows lol. An inch will get me over 20 for the season. I'll gladly take that.
  11. CAPE
  12. CAPE
    @WinterWxLuvr I will use the 6z 12km NAM as an example- It is snowing pretty good in your area at this point.
  13. CAPE
    You have to visualize it from the perspective of an air parcel entering the jet. Might help to go to 250 mb wind and hit play or scroll back and forth. Then flip to the precip panels and see what's happening at the surface and when.
  14. CAPE
    The one place that has a better chance for heavier snow is the higher terrain of western VA. Most of the guidance has it, and it seems the upper jet streak, localized vorticity/ terrain effects all coincide there. The favorable location of the right rear quadrant(entrance) of the upper jet is really the key element for producing a period of snow for our area.
  15. CAPE
    The new edition of the NBM reflects the latest trends in the guidance, and would complete the objective of this thread- expansion of the blues to the snow starved areas. It would be nice to see more than a couple inches, but it seems there is a relatively brief opportunity for decent forcing (lift), and the snow will probably be light to moderate in intensity.
  16. CAPE
    If you throw out the GFS, which once again looks a bit lost, and pay no attention to models like the Hrderps that are always wrong, this looks to be what we (or I) thought it would be- An inch or 2, with maybe a few spots hitting 3.
  17. CAPE
    Enjoy the 0z Euro y'all. I imagine it will continue to crush everyone's hopes and dreams for blues.
  18. CAPE
    It is stubborn with expanding the blues. We will just have to give it a few more runs.
  19. CAPE
    My mission to save this quest looks to be on track.
  20. CAPE
    The final ICON clown map since WW had a premature posting. Looks like a bit of action from the coastal.
  21. CAPE
    The NAM nest can resolve banding. The 12K looks more like random blobs and holes lol. If you look at the 3k map and don't focus on the colors, its a pretty simple swath of around an inch up to as much as 3.
  22. CAPE
    The 3km NAM just about fits what I was expecting, which is a general 1-3" across the area. I know others want/expect more, and I wish them luck.
  23. CAPE
    The Natty Blend This likely doesn't include the 18z runs, but not sure on that.
  24. CAPE
    Oh geez...that is dry. What are we tracking? 1-3" More than you were tracking this time yesterday.
  25. CAPE
    Just look at the last 3 runs of the 12km NAM. Like wtf is it even doing lol? Whack a mole for the 2" lollies?
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