Jump to content

CAPE

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    34,347

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    It does seem that west central VA is where the the vorticity along the front, the upper jet, (and probably some terrain enhancement) coincide and provide the best ascent. Further eastward the forcing may weaken some as the trough starts to approach the coast and the coastal low gets going.
  2. CAPE
    The NAM is doing NAM things. It is erratic as eff- just look at its last 4 runs lol. That being said, it seems to be working its way towards the general idea of the better models, but swerving like a drunk along the path.
  3. CAPE
    It could but I think that cake is baked at this juncture. The reality is any direct impacts from the coastal low are probably going to be minor and confined to areas E/SE. I would have to look at the individual members but probably a handful have the coastal organizing sooner/closer to the coast.
  4. CAPE
    Seeing hints of maybe a bit of love from the coastal on the last few EPS runs.
  5. CAPE
    6z EPS
  6. CAPE
    12km NAM for comparison.
  7. CAPE
    If anyone is still tracking the upper levels, forget the NS lobe, the energy dropping in on the backside of the trough, trough axis etc. Not likely to see any meaningful changes with that. The lift is associated with that southern vorticity ribbon on the front side of the trough, and the strong upper jet above.
  8. CAPE
    Modest dreams can come true. 1-3 is the goal. Euro juiced up some.
  9. CAPE
  10. CAPE
  11. CAPE
    Thanks for the persistent reminders! I had almost forgotten since your last posts a few hours ago.
  12. CAPE
    Latest NBM. The 'enhanced' area of snow has shifted NW, likely influenced by the CMC and NAM.
  13. CAPE
    After the warm/wet storm late next week, we should be at least briefly colder in the wake, and there is a chance for something to ride the boundary next weekend. Can see the potential here on the GEFS.
  14. CAPE
    I have a feeling the 6z Euro will increase optimism for expansion of the blues.
  15. CAPE
    6z GFS still steadfast with the central VA jack, and better for S MD too.
  16. CAPE
    Be careful riding the 12k NAM/Canadian combo against the better guidance That said, I have expected a more expansive area of precip further NW. Need to see some movement in that direction by the GFS and Euro at 6 and 12z. The Euro actually has a decently broad precip shield- it just needs to juice up a bit.
  17. CAPE
    The worm has to turn at some point. Bad luck and all that, but climo says it should especially given areas south and east are now above average- and February is the time where it just seems to find ways to snow.
  18. CAPE
    The window for a period of moderate snow seems tied to this upper jet on the front side of the trough, with a ribbon of vorticity below at h5. Pretty impressive jet and the models might be underdoing the extent of the precip. I think the 1-3 area has a chance to be more widespread(expanded north) than depicted. The quest for more blues continues..
  19. CAPE
    I think we generally know what this is going to be, but I still think there is potential for some juicing up/expansion of the precip as we get closer. Could always go the other way too.
  20. CAPE
    Just grasping at straws up in here, trying to spread those blues.
  21. CAPE
    Possibly, but also need a wave of some significance to be riding along that boundary.
  22. CAPE
    Considering the GFS is pretty much alone with the aggressive cold push, and it was wrong with that last storm, it is possible that the location/duration of the max precip area is not correct. It will be interesting to see the CMC and Euro, given what the ICON() just did.
  23. CAPE
    ICON snow map. Quite a shift north and juiced with the precip(not all snow) and the coastal is a factor. Too bad IT SUCKS.
  24. CAPE
    lol ICON. Who knows, once in awhile it figures something out.
  25. CAPE
    Oh stop lol. I decoded incorrectly.
×
×
  • Create New...