CAPE

If I could get some front end snow then a sleet-fest I might be more interested. Outside of the GFS, the other guidance is not suggestive of that.

Dw. GFS is not going to be correct. Damn did I just sound like DT?

Snippet from Mount Holly on the late week event. Sounds reasonable to me. Surface high pressure is expected to nose into our area from the northwest on north on Thursday. However, our next weather system should already be approaching from the southwest on Thursday. Low pressure is forecast to be developing in the lower Mississippi River Valley and the Tennessee River on Thursday. The circulation around the high to our north and the low well to our southwest should result in a developing easterly flow in our region on Thursday. We should see cloudy conditions at that time along with an increasing chance of precipitation. With some cold air in place, a light wintry mix is possible, mainly in eastern Pennsylvania, and in northern and central New Jersey, with light rain in areas to the south. The low is forecast to pass through or near our region on Friday morning as it continues to move northeastward and strengthen. Since the exact track of the low remains uncertain at this point, so does the precipitation type forecast. For now, we will paint it as a wintry mix to the northwest of the Interstate 95 Corridor for Thursday night into Friday, and mainly rain to the southeast.

29 and yeah, it's windy.

Wrt the Feb 27- March 1 period, HH GEFS seems to have a few subsets among the members- one brings energy out sooner and has as storm for Sunday into Monday, and most of that group(around 10) has a wave but keeps it suppressed. There are 2 or 3 nice hits for our area. The second subset seems to dampen the initial wave and has a stronger one a day or so later. There are 5 hits for the region in that group, 3 look like significant snow events, the other 2 are snow/mix to rain. The other group suggests snow showers or not much of anything. Upshot is this is a period to keep an eye on, and there is a pretty solid signal on the guidance given this is 8+ days out.

GFS op runs at range are usually entertaining.

which results in this at the surface.

and then we get this lol

The southern vorticity is an elongated strung out mess this run, with energy left behind, and the NS comes in like a wrecking ball. One of many possible outcomes that will be depicted over the next several days.

Looks a tad cold behind it.

Right where we want it.

That's the default take at this point until proven otherwise.

Someone should have hidden the magic gravity gibberish post. People just can't resist replying lol.

12z GEFS members for the Sunday- early Tuesday timeframe. A bit scattershot on the timing and evolution but it is emerging as a period of interest.

Yeah it does. LOL I just realized I had switched back to the 6z run when I was scrolling through the surface panels.

12z GFS continues with the crazy parade of storms tracking along the boundary, but to our north.

lol no thanks. Another 75-100 miles south will do it. It will probably end up the other way, which I would prefer to this.

First round of wind starting to crank here.

That look is generally supportive of a period frozen on the front end, and probably some sleet/zr (for interior areas), then rain. Question is exactly where? At this point places to our north are favored for frozen, but still some time for adjustments. The setup doesn't excite me at all given my location, and I have no interest in ice/sleet.

Dude..

We do wind well around here. Mount Holly snippet- The other big story to note will be the winds. This will actually be quite remarkable given the winds we just had and that we went light and variable overnight last night - another quick turnaround. Strong southwesterly flow ahead of the Arctic cold front will quickly mix down to the surface after sunrise. With the dry air noted earlier, steep low-level lapse rates, actually not too far off the dry adiabatic lapse rate in fact, will allow for deep vertical mixing, carrying down winds from well above 1500 feet from 850 to the 700 mb level. With a strong ll-jet moving beneath this shortwave, we will see strong winds glide right down to the surface. Ended up dividing the Wind Advisory into two segments, starting the western portion over the Poconos and Lehigh Valley at 10 am, and the rest of the area at 1 pm, both of these advisories lasting through 10 pm. Wind gusts up to 45 to 50 mph will be possible across the entire forecast area, likely highest associated with and behind any showers and snow squalls that form.

lol 10% chance of flurries here this afternoon. Rare to see that in a forecast- usually not mentioned unless it's at least 20.

Ji wants instant gratification, and it only comes from looking at op runs, even 10 days out. Go blue or go home lol.

Nice!

Nice wintry feeling morning with some frost. Low of 22. Better than the 62 of yesterday morning.