CAPE

The instrument I used has a k thermocouple as the probe so not the most accurate sensor for measuring relatively low temps. Could be off a degree or 2.

Just measured the temp here at work in Easton with a Fluke 16 and it's 64.

At this juncture I am not rooting for or wasting energy tracking ice/sleet/slop-to-rain events. Non starter. I am only interested in mostly or all snow events, in any form. And yes they can occur in a pattern such as the one being advertised in early March, even southward into NC.

I would characterize the interplay between the vortex near the Aleutians, the poleward extending EPO ridge, and the TPV lobe(s) collectively as a block. It seems to get kicked off by a cyclonic wave break out of the Aleutian vortex that pinches off the Pac ridge and amps it up into the EPO space, followed by a poleward anticyclonic wave break, which sends the TPV lobe south, and then it all becomes self sustained. Loading the h5 vorticity panel and hitting play is fun stuff. Turbulent flow on the largest scale.

I really like what I am seeing beginning next weekend. Imo the progression of the pattern is such that late next week is probably too soon. Sure there could be a mix to rain deal, and could end up better out your way. Keep in mind the GFS has been in error with depicting colder solutions at range recently, especially in situations where colder air is arriving. Clearly the primary window for frozen lies just beyond next week.

The 0z GEFS tracks the next Friday wave further NW similar to the EPS, thus the signal for frozen is much weaker than previous runs. Still a week or so out. The better window starts a couple days later when the cold gets more established, and the latest ensemble runs are suggesting multiple chances in that timeframe. Looks promising. I am sure someone will post the 0z GEFS snowfall mean for that period, take it verbatim, and whinge.

-PNA will prevail. Its Nina and the +NAO is 5 sigma. The east will bake!

This has been an error in the GFS/GEFS at range with recent events, so lets see how the trends play out over the coming days in comparison with the Canadians and the Europeans.

It was there at 12z too, but a bit more robust at 18z centered on next Friday. Gets some light blue over N central and NE MD (pummeled!).

The snowfall depicted in our region would occur from the 25th to the end of the run. Not a bad sig at this juncture. EPS isn't as enthused yet.

That map is pretty useless anyway for the purposes of the ultimate objective. It's the total precip depicted to fall over 360 hours on a single an op run, and much of it in the MA would be rain that falls between tomorrow and the end of next week.

I was just looking at that. Basically 6 or so members have blues/pinks across the area for next Friday. Something to watch.

Plenty active and a little bit of everything going on there lol.

Its all still pretty much scattershot on the members at this range but this is the best 24 hour window on the 6z ens mean that has a combo of cold in place with precip.

This is the primary one- just put in a little effort yourself first and if you can't find the answer then ask in the threads. Don't come across as if everything is a mystery.

There were more EPS members than GEFS that 'like' this period on the 0z runs.

After the storm mid next week likely tracks to our NW, seeing hints on the means of a west to east tracking wave along the boundary with colder air in place next Friday-Sat (25th-26th). There are a handful of members on the 0z EPS and GEFS with frozen for that period, while the op runs have another storm tracking to our NW towards next weekend. This is probably the period to watch for 'better trends', and it may just evolve into more of a threat for a couple days later.

No one is attacking you. The manner in which you preface your posts often leaves you open to being poked at a bit though. Thicker skin.

Need some more big trends. Realistically I think the next 8-10 days are toast. The very end of the month is where the pattern looks to become manageable. Always subject to change ofc, but I would bet it's more likely to be delayed if anything.

Agreed. The general look on the means at h5 is conducive to cold pressing and a wave or 2 tracking along the boundary. Not complicated. Early March is probably the first chance, even though the GFS op teased late next week. Probably too soon. GEFS still suggestive of a cutter. Might be a good thing for a few days later.

Only 10 days away!

12z GFS suggesting we might have an event to track before the month is out.

That is pretty remarkable. I can think of 7 times since 2016 roads were plowed here right off the top of my head, and there were probably a couple more.