CAPE

Be careful with that association. Ninas can feature blocking, but they almost never have a persistent/prominent stj. That feature is characteristic of a Nino and allows for storm development further south/SW so as to have greater impacts at our latitude, in conjunction with HL blocking(encourages storms to track underneath and keeps cold locked in).

Canadian ens looks much more like the EPS than the GEFS. Who wants to ride the colder GFS/GEFS look at range?

12z EPS isn't any better. It tracks everything to our NW then brings the cold in next Sunday, so we get mild and wet followed by a couple days of transient cold and dry. The higher elevations of western VA/WV/W MD would probably see some frozen during the Thursday-Sunday period verbatim.

I'm skeptical of that period being cold enough at this point. Possible, but not sure how cold we can actually get in the Wed-Thursday timeframe. It will definitely feel cold after the prior few days though.

Still a lot of spread among the members but the potential for a 'go big or go home' type storm looks to be next weekend.

The initial wave on the GEFS-

Yes, kinda.

The general setup for late next week would certainly favor inland areas at elevation for potential frozen. Ji might be more interested if he wasn't stuck in eastern Loudoun county.

For next week, there are some differences between the EPS and GEFS wrt any colder air initially moving into the region- mostly associated with the timing and exact location of the pieces of energy being shed off the TPV and rotating down. The GEFS suggests a wave mid week with the boundary close to us, thus some potential for a little frozen. EPS has that wave but a little later and a bit warmer. On the heels of that the main trough approaches and there is the potential for a bigger storm heading into next weekend. For now it looks like there will be an initial LP tracking into the OV with a coastal low developing. Way too soon to discuss details, but this is the look on the latest GEFS-

Yeah it's been mentioned a time or 2 .

3 straight days of 60-75.

We can do cold and dry here in March lol. Hopefully the advertised cold period is legit and we can time something up. There certainly have been hints on the ensembles, but we are talking the 10th at the earliest and likely beyond, so no consistent signal yet.

Yeah that is a radical looking flow path lol.

I tend to agree, but there has been a recent trend on the ensembles to shift the mean trough eastward sooner. The eastern US ridge in the h5 panel I posted is pretty flat and eastward compared to a few runs ago.

This is a pretty interesting look on the latest EPS. The window around the 10th is probably the earliest shot at something other than rain, but it has looked a bit too warm on the means. Latest trends have a deeper trough around the Aleutians/more ridging along the west coast, a more southward displaced TPV, and quicker progression of the trough into the central/eastern US. Probably still not cold enough verbatim here, but this would be an east coast storm with a track along the coast or just inland.

Oh damn lol. Well, it's certainly not the most 'intellectual' of games.

High of 58 here.

Looks like a couple days of low to mid 70s. Sunday might be the warmer day. I need to get that skeeter larvicide ordered.

I don't have much to add to what I posted yesterday. Still think we have a decent shot of something trackable in the March 10-17 window. Latest EPS h5 look for that period is pretty nice.

This might be it. If we gonna get one, it's likely in the 10-17 window.

Man it really does suck there lol. March has been way better than December here in recent years and as good or better than February. Good thing you have 100+ acres on the Alleghany Front now. You won't care much whether or not it snows in southern MD.

Yeah any cold or snow going forward is going to be more fleeting than usual. Got lucky here to have the storms aligned with the cold and during early/mid winter when the snow can stick around awhile.

First day of Met Spring, but yes it can still snow. I am kinda over it, but I wont complain if we get something like March 2018. Otherwise January was 'the month' of winter, as it should be, and it delivered at least for eastern areas. I will reserve an overall grade for another couple weeks, but December gets a D and January a solid A. Each winter month has to be weighted, and December is more of a Fall month in these parts and usually does not produce significant snowfall. February is easily an F, with less than an inch of frozen here, after nearly 20" in January.

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