CAPE

It's a bit odd given the track of the low but its another op run that shows a storm and that's the take away.

Yeah it goes to rain, but we got a storm.

She looks good

The pretty WB snow map from the ICON(SUCKS) run.

As usual it comes down to the subtle interactions between the southern wave and the NS shortwave(s) dropping in downstream of the amplifying ridge. ICON got it done much like the Euro did, but even simpler. GFS is messier in the NS and timing is off so it just kicks it. We just cant know, and hopefully the ensembles will shed some light and not just play follow the leader.

No, this is the @losetoa6 storm.

Agreed. This one looks more interesting for places up near the PA line. It is the storm to track right now so I will keep an eye on it.

As a science based person on a science based forum, not starting a thread to track and discuss the details of a stable discrete storm threat because jinx!!! is beyond silly.

The Sunday/Monday storm much less crushed on the 6z GEFS.

Well lets get that party started then!

That storm is happening. Locked in. It's largely just a matter of where the sleet/ice vs the rain is, and if there is any snow on the front end.

Someone should start a thread for the late week slop event. For those who buy into superstition and mojo and whatnot, it could only help at this point lol. It would also declutter this thread. @WxUSAF

Low of 16 here.

Not a bad signal for 7 days out on the EPS. Mean snowfall for this period is 2" across VA/MD/DE, more in the western highlands ofc.

All 3 globals are depicting pretty extreme amplification of the western ridge next weekend, causing the TPV to shed a lobe that produces a digging trough. Both the CMC and GFS literally drop the hammer on top of the southern wave, while the timing and orientation of the trough on the EURO allows (positive) interaction with the wave further west, thus not crushing it to oblivion. Long way to go before we know how this unfolds.

Looks similar to 12z. Less snow in our region though, which was kinda tough to do lol.

I noticed the daylilies starting to emerge today. Despite any cold this time of year, the longer days/ stronger sun is undeniable.

This post was in error lol. I was comparing the 6z and 12z, and thought I was looking at the 12z. Suffice to say the 12z run was quite different.

WDI for you.

I am right about at 20" and playing with house money here. I can afford to be a winter precip snob. Give me 3-6 of cold powder or a 10" paste bomb.

If I could get some front end snow then a sleet-fest I might be more interested. Outside of the GFS, the other guidance is not suggestive of that.

Dw. GFS is not going to be correct. Damn did I just sound like DT?

Snippet from Mount Holly on the late week event. Sounds reasonable to me. Surface high pressure is expected to nose into our area from the northwest on north on Thursday. However, our next weather system should already be approaching from the southwest on Thursday. Low pressure is forecast to be developing in the lower Mississippi River Valley and the Tennessee River on Thursday. The circulation around the high to our north and the low well to our southwest should result in a developing easterly flow in our region on Thursday. We should see cloudy conditions at that time along with an increasing chance of precipitation. With some cold air in place, a light wintry mix is possible, mainly in eastern Pennsylvania, and in northern and central New Jersey, with light rain in areas to the south. The low is forecast to pass through or near our region on Friday morning as it continues to move northeastward and strengthen. Since the exact track of the low remains uncertain at this point, so does the precipitation type forecast. For now, we will paint it as a wintry mix to the northwest of the Interstate 95 Corridor for Thursday night into Friday, and mainly rain to the southeast.