CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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We in the game now man. But sort of like the Seahawks are in the game.. they really need to win tonight.
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Disjointed with a later phase but good outcome esp for places inland. Sort of evolves more like the Euro but comes together quicker, so better at our latitude.
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Not as clean a phase so more energy from the southern wave runs out ahead this run, similar to the Euro.
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That is more Nino-ish. Nina tendency is for a ridge in that area.
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Here comes the wind. 1.12" here so far.
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Very close. On the GFS the main shortwave digging down the east side of the ridge is sharper and involves some of the energy from the shortwave coming in off the Pac under the PNA ridge. The Euro doesn't dig as sharply or as far west, which allows a vorticity ribbon from that southern wave to run out ahead and induce the lead coastal low. Just a bit out of sync.
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Way out there and plenty of spread ofc, but indications of the follow-up storm. Imagine sipping your heavily spiked eggnog on Christmas, looking out your window at deep winter conditions, and tracking the next one.
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h5 primed for storm 2.
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The shortwave that gets it done shoots SE out of an EPO ridge wave break, after a lead piece comes out and moves into the 50-50 position. The 0z run did this, but 12z did it better. (The 6z run brought too much energy out in the lead wave, with not much trailing energy). PNA ridge axis is perfect. Beautiful progression.
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Make this happen lol
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Looks much more like 0z, which is a good thing.
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Not until you are told how it is by some rando from another sub.
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Some advertised relaxation in the -EPO/WPO yes, but at the same time the PNA is going positive. Still an overall favorable look at day 15, and ofc that's way out there so we just can't know.
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That would be the 120 lol. The 90 is a great balanced DIPA, around 9%.
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It seems we may get a RELOAD after a slight relaxation. No signs of a 'close the blinds' period.
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A bit of ice coating on tree limbs. All other surfaces just wet.
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I like where things are now. Still far enough out that this could morph into something different.
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6z GEFS a bit further offshore (expected given the op run). Not bad. Many more iterations to go.
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Thanks dude. Now my mind is right and I can carry on with my day.
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We want to see sharpness in the trough, and for it dig to our SW. This run does neither. Too progressive and leads to a low forming wayyy offshore.
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There is no distinct shortwave on the 6z run, just a broad lobe of strung out vorticity. PNA ridge is a bit too amped with the axis further east. Not enough dig.
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Soaker
