CAPE

EPO/WPO driven, and we threaded the needle many times. It can work, but a pattern like that can just as easily be a cold/dry warm/wet deal too. Many ways to lose here, even with the holy grail of mod/strong Nino with strong stj, and HL blocking- although that's our best bet for above avg snow until proven otherwise.

Could be a soaker for the Ravens-Bills game.

On the northern fringe of that warned storm. Had a history of quarter sized hail and 60 mph wind. Just a brief downpour and a bit of small hail. No wind. Probably worse a few miles south and down towards Denton.

Ravens offense needs health, and the D still needs work. Better effort but still too soft. Lamar, well..$$$

From Mount Holly AFD this morning- The upward trend in strength and coverage of convection forecast for this afternoon has continued in the latest guidance this morning. There will be seasonably strong synoptic forcing for convection along with strong deep layer effective shear of 40 kts or perhaps even higher. The primary limiting factor with this setup remains the instability, which is likely to remain around 500-1,000 J/kg. However, the forcing and kinematic environment should be able to overcome the relatively low CAPE to result in scattered strong to locally severe thunderstorms. Additionally, the aforementioned mid- level cooling should also help overcome the less than impressive instability parameters with forecast mid-level lapse rates possibly exceeding 7 C/km. The primary threat of severe weather with these thunderstorms will be locally damaging winds and large hail, however the low- level hodograph curvature will also support a couple brief/weak tornadoes. Effective SRH values look to be around 100-150 m2/s2 with 0-1 km bulk shear around 10-20 kts. LCLs will be around 1000 meters or higher, so this will limit the tornado potential a good bit.

...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms producing large hail and damaging winds are expected from mid to late afternoon across the northern Appalachians and parts of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England through evening. ...Portions of the Appalachians, Mid Atlantic and southern New England... Within a larger-scale upper trough, a lead wave will move from the OH Valley to the Mid Atlantic during the day, providing cooling aloft and midlevel winds of 60-70 kt, enhancing shear. At the surface, low pressure will slowly deepen from Lake Huron into NY, with a front trailing southwestward across PA, WV, eastern KY and Middle TN by late afternoon. Meanwhile, a warm front will develop over southern New England, resulting in destabilization toward evening. Dewpoints will rise into the lower 60s F there, with upper 50s to lower 60s F southwestward along the front where heating and mixing will be stronger. The warm sector will become uncapped by around 18Z from PA southward across WV, VA, KY and TN, with further destabilization 21-00Z from NJ into southern New England. MLCAPE of 1000 J/kg will be common, with locally higher values. Deep-layer shear will be strong beneath the upper jet, with values around 60 kt common from eastern TN to the DelMarVa. Precipitation may be ongoing from OH into PA and western NY early in the day, north of the midlevel jet where temperatures aloft will be cold, and as warm advection around 850 mb translates east. Given cold temperatures aloft, some of this activity could produce small hail. As the air mass destabilizes beneath the cold air aloft, some of these storms may expand and become severe across PA and NJ during the afternoon, producing hail and wind. Later in the evening, additional storms may interact with the warm front where low-level shear will be stronger, and a brief/weak tornado could occur, depending on whether surface temperatures are warm enough for surface-based parcels.

The starters have allowed I think 2 runs in 39 innings to the Astros this season. Impressive.

The Orioles with back to back shutouts of the best team in the AL.

Low of 44.

Spectacular day. A couple shots from Terrapin Park just east of the bay bridge.

So the Ravens did sign JPP. They sure could use some help in the pass rush dept. Not sure how much he has left in the tank, but maybe he can help some and be an example for the younger players like Oweh. He needs to step it up.

Having to look to the right out my kitchen window now to see the sunrise through the trees makes me happy.

51 here. Outside day!

I am in the woods so I know the struggles. I can get cool season tall fescue established just fine in the early Fall, and it will thrive in the Spring and early summer, but once we get the persistent heat, blazing high sun, and the trees are all active, a significant amount of it just gives up and goes to thatch. Some areas hang on enough and come back. I let the moss do its thing for the most part, and try to keep a nice grass area in the back (over the drain field) around my firepit area. I just have to do a fairly significant reseed every year in late Summer/early Fall.

Mine is mostly up and doing well. Wish I didn't have to keep running the sprinkler. I am also going to put some more seed down this evening or tomorrow morning in a few areas where it still looks a bit bare.

Some decent showers here. Might make it to a quarter of an inch. 0.20" so far.

Dryness.

And maybe Harbaugh should realize this isn't the dominant smash mouth team of 2019(at least until he decides to play Dobbins and Stanley) and not go for every 4th and short, after being stuffed on third and short. That automatic 3 with the best kicker in the world earlier in the game might have helped..

They started 2-2 in 2019 and finished 14-2. A dominant run game would have helped immensely today. Time of possession was way in the favor of the Dolphins in the second half. Less time with our 'on-their-heels' D on the field and this is probably a win.

Raven's season ultimately hinges on Stanley, Dobbins, and eventually Gus the bus coming back and contributing. Other than Lamar, the run game was again putrid today. The D will work itself out, I think, as long as they don't accumulate more injuries. They have a lot of young talent. Lets just hope the New D coordinator isn't a young version of Dean Pees.

Worst in Raven's history? Having a hard time thinking of another one this bad.

If that was pressure.. "miscommunication in the secondary".

Well..

Ravens clearly fear the speed of the Dolphins. Playing soft isn't getting it done though.

D better get it together now. Could be a one score game pretty quick.