CAPE
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Everything posted by CAPE
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They better take care of business at home coming off the bye. The Rams are pretty good and playing for something.
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They had key injuries that greatly contributed to that 3 game slide. They have looked pretty dominant since then as they have gotten healthy.
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Yeah that would be the one game to lose and they probably will, but you know there is another loss in there somewhere.
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The system is flawed and indeed subjective. FSU is not the same team since they lost their QB- they looked terrible offensively against Louisville and had like 50 yards passing. They would likely get destroyed in the playoff, and that matters. Georgia-TCU last year was unwatchable.
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Yesterday was a good day for the Ravens. If they win out they are the number one seed. Not likely to happen given their schedule, but a nice position to be in right now.
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0.55" total overnight into this morning Another dreary day.
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I was trying to find this earlier- something I ran across a few years ago and thought it was a good read on the PDO. Anyway I finally found it. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/going-out-ice-cream-first-date-pacific-decadal-oscillation
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At the end of the 6z GEFS run, we can see the beginning of the pattern progression that both the EURO weeklies and GEFS extended have been consistently depicting.
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Take a break dude. Afraid you might not make it.
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I agree with most of this. Your post comparing a snapshot from the current ens means to a composite for last winter with no commentary was a bit disingenuous though. You know how some are going to respond to stuff like that. Do better.
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Beginning to think many won't make it.
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The PDO really isnt a pattern driver. The phase is influenced by multiple factors, ENSO state being one. The MJO is a short term modulator and the current wave will be focused over the MC in the coming days and is largely responsible for the unfavorable looks on the PAC side imo. Beyond that the convection looks to shift into the Western PAC and weaken based on current forecasts. Ultimately the atmospheric response to a Nino should feature a NE PAC low, and the location of that going forward will become a major influence on the downstream pattern. We also have to factor in the current Strat activity and possible impacts on the h5 pattern. Upshot is the pattern is in flux and looks generally mild for the middle third of the month. End of Dec into Jan might be pretty interesting.
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So you expect this h5 look to lock in like last winter then?
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0.48" so far and steady rain continues. I didn't pay much attention to the recent qpf forecast but this seems like a bit of an overperformer.
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The ensemble system exists for a reason. But let's just toss the whole concept of ensembles and quantifying uncertainty, because we 'feel' the op run alone mostly ends up getting it right in the LR. After how many completely disparate permutations? Okay.
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You kinda remember? 'Feels' aren't necessarily factual.
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I'd like to see the analysis. This sounds anecdotal to me.
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Love WW but he needs to tell us what he is attempting to illustrate instead of just spamming the thread with all those pretty WB panels.
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Yes a mean of 30 perturbed lower resolution members is going to look different than a single higher resolution operational run 15 days out. Besides that obvious fact, you can see the beginnings of a PNA ridge and perhaps an Aleutian trough developing on the mean.
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Roll that forward and there will be an Aleutian trough as the TPV shifts west, a neutral/+PNA as the NE Pac ridge pushes east and amplifies underneath, and the SW trough progresses across the south/central US towards the east coast. Plus we have a developing NA block. I could be wrong, but that makes some sense in a Nino with the expected shift in tropical forcing going forward. The extended tools pretty much agree, and that's the best available guidance we have based on the end of the ens runs that everyone seems so convinced has the right idea wrt the 'crappy' look.
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Multiple chances on the 12z run. Close calls verbatim.
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And the EPS extended pattern progression from that look ends up like this for the end of the month-
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^perspective Everyone take a deep breath. Its gonna snow this winter.
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I left out last December because other aspects of the pattern were favorable enough and the massive ridge wasn't quite established early on, so we actually had a shot. Just didn't work out. Beyond that during our actual winter period we literally had no chance.
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Last year was a Nina with a strong, nearly stationary NE Pac High. If that happens in a Nino then we are truly fucked and need a new hobby.
