CAPE

The former is not surprising and a good move. The latter- I still have my doubts.

Could be cold and dry as a promising wave gets crushed by an overwhelming 50-50 on steroids, followed by a warm up.

@vastateofmind Drinking a Flying Dog Family Drama. Not your typical Pilsner.

That is nice. The precip panel I posted above ends up like this. Here we go!

The difference is, assuming its real, the persistently awful Pacific reshuffles and finally the ridge morphs into something that could be helpful instead of a hindrance for snow in the MA.

We're all gonna do it again. You know it. This is the one!

Potential, and only 10 days away.

As advertised on the EPS the March 4th fail storm at least helps jack up the Block. Textbook -NAO dipole with closed h5 contours.

GEFS in the LR is advertising a -EPO/WPO driven pattern with AO/NAO around neutral and a neutral PNA. That would bring some cold.

Maybe. At least as advertised there is cold in place with some actual High pressure up north.

It's possible, but not wasting time on a 372 hour op run.

Not worthy of any analysis lol.

locked in.

About right if the EPS has a clue.

Yeah the Canadian and the CFS fwiw are more like the EPS. Maybe Judah can enlighten us on the likelihood of a quick SPV rebound.

The h5 look on the EPS is much better than the GEFS for that period.

The thermal boundary being displaced to our northwest has been the core issue with the pattern since at least the beginning of Jan.. I see the difference in the advertised look here and ofc that is a more favorable h5 pattern, but we have seen model simulations depicting this general progression on the LR means/extended products previously, and it doesn't verify/reverts back to the same general unfavorable look- Aleutian ridge/western trough/SER. I know because I have been one of the optimistic ones posting those 'improved' LR looks the last couple months lol. This time it might be more believable, as the Nina continues to weaken and we head towards Spring.

I am all into the idea of the Chuck/Hail Mary period. I'll take mid March snow. Snow anytime is good. But climo gets progressively more hostile for snow especially in the lowlands mid-late March. Would be nice to see that look move up in time for once. The Nina is decaying, so we should see some changes with the position /strength/orientation of the Aleutian ridge.

At this juncture, I have my doubts. We have seen this look a lot on guidance over recent weeks, and we never get there. Maybe by early April.

The primary issue is the next trough digging in out west is right on the heels and additional shortwave energy from that is influencing the shortwave in front. The 'good' runs had more separation/little interaction. The GFS has consistently depicted the trough diving in closer behind(plus NS interaction with the Hudson vort) which causes the shortwave to take on a neutral/negative tilt sooner and track further NW. Last few runs of the Euro have trended towards more interaction with the next trough. That wave needs to be 'left alone' in order to take a more southerly track. Current Euro run compared to 4 runs ago- I'm not sure minor improvements to our NE(increased confluence) will help that much at our latitude. If there are more significant changes in that area then it could encourage a secondary coastal low to form further south. Otherwise we need to see more separation between the wave and the upper level energy coming in behind.

A -PNA during a Nino has a somewhat different(less hostile) character because we don't see the persistent Aleutian ridge like in a Nina. Much more workable esp with a prominent STJ.

We really need a run of Ninos. More likely to have a +PDO. Less hostile Pacific overall gives NA blocking a better chance to do what it normally(historically) does.

The Aleutian ridge/-PNA combo is the blocking pattern that wins. Unless that relaxes the NAO will probably keep losing that battle.

The orientation of the EPO ridge matters. That amped positively tilted ridge is going to bury a trough out west. I think that is a Nina/TNH tendency. Maybe PSU has some thoughts. Either way, until I see that Aleutian ridge die off and the PNA head towards positive, I doubt we will do any better towards mid month. The -PNA and SER are still there in the LR, then way out there we see the oft promised change, then it fades and never materializes. That h5 ens map WW posted above is just more of the same.

Yes it is definitely 'busy' in the NS, and subtle differences in wave timing/interactions are going to potentially make big differences in the outcome. It is almost always the case that the one result we want requires so much to go right with these wave interactions. As you often say, we need some luck.