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CAPE

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Everything posted by CAPE

  1. CAPE
    No notable signal for frozen in our region on the 12z EPS until the very end of the month. Only about 2 weeks away! Time for a new 'March will be rocking' LR thread? Maybe there is another word that can be substituted for rocking.
  2. CAPE
    This is our chance! GEFSX and Euro weeklies look better.
  3. CAPE
    The extended products depict a favorable pattern progression into early March, weakening the Aleutian ridge with the PNA trending neutral/ positive, suppressed/absent SE ridge, and a negative NAO(on the GEFSx and EPS weeklies). H5 looks really good for mid March period.
  4. CAPE
    It's going to be difficult to mitigate a persistent extremely negative PNA/ SE ridge without a legitimate -NAO. The depiction on guidance in the LR has a slightly negative NAO with the ridge displaced too far north/east. Have to see how that evolves going forward but as advertised that won't help much.
  5. CAPE
    Let's hope Lamar is still here. I hear Derek Carr is available.
  6. CAPE
    It's still a relatively weak signal at this point. The majority of members have a low tracking NW for this period. 4 or 5 have a coastal with significant snow.
  7. CAPE
    New edition of the weeklies isn't bad at all at h5 though. Not sure I would say it went in the wrong direction. The last run was ultra weenie and not likely to transpire.
  8. CAPE
    The last edition of the weeklies was useless as it was initialized off a run where the EPS went all in on HL block forming. The next run it went right back to blue up top.
  9. CAPE
    GEFS has a -NAO beginning to take shape at the end of the run. Still a relatively mild look for the east verbatim. We shall see how the pattern evolves going forward if the NA is indeed improving. Would help if the Pac cooperates a little.
  10. CAPE
    The last couple runs of the GEFS suggests the cold comes in before the moisture departs on Friday. Maybe a few flakes in the air?
  11. CAPE
    I'll be in bed before this fucking thing starts.
  12. CAPE
    Eagles are slightly better overall, but Mahomes is the best QB in the league, and is driven to be one of the best ever. He is 1-1 in SBs, doesn't want to go 1-2. Unless the Eagles completely dominate the LoS and ToP, it will be close and in that case I will go with the better/more established QB-coach combo. Just hoping for an entertaining game, with absolutely no rooting interest/no skin in this one. I don't gamble lol.
  13. CAPE
    A marginal airmass can work when there are certain features in place. HP to our N/NW, and lower pressure to our NE can get it done when we aren't very cold. Ofc that usually happens when we are in a Nino with NA blocking. We kind of suck otherwise.
  14. CAPE
    Very weak signal for frozen on the EPS between the 20th-27th. Quite different than the GEFS. eta- that h5 look is one that could work if we are super lucky with timing as cold is on the doorstep.. otherwise with the typical bad luck, it's probably more of the same.
  15. CAPE
    If the air mass is marginal, it better be dry if you want snow. And lift, significant lift ofc.
  16. CAPE
    evap cooling >>>>>>> dynamic cooling.
  17. CAPE
    Ya know.. bring that precip, and I'll take my chances with cold.
  18. CAPE
    The troll job by @MacChumpwas masterful. Go Birds! (wrong ones )
  19. CAPE
    Lightened up over here. Temp up to 37. Good to see that dynamical cooling can still make a difference between chilly rain and cold miserable rain.
  20. CAPE
    Any significant snow reports?
  21. CAPE
    lol I would take the 2.5" over my yard in a heartbeat. One of the few parts of that map that are in the realm of possibility, and would be a win.
  22. CAPE
    GEFS has been incrementally moving away from improvements in the HL over the last few runs. EPS has only been slightly hinting. Without some AO/NAO help it's going to be difficult to get the actual cold air down here and shift the boundary to our south for more than 5 mins. The ens means range from slightly below to slightly above avg temps around the end of the month. If our last best chance is end of Feb into early March, we are going to need better than that.
  23. CAPE
    It certainly isn't very cold for our area, but not warm either. We know how that goes though.
  24. CAPE
    You should have posted this one. Weenies respond to the blue.
  25. CAPE
    There is a stronger signal on the 12z GEFS.
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