CAPE

The signal for frozen on the 6z GEFS(east of the mountains) ticked up a bit- 'highest' in VA west and south of DC. There are 7 members that suggest measurable snow in our general region, with differences in the exact placement. Clearly places inland at elevation would be favored in such a marginal setup- if it actually precipitates at a decent rate in those areas.

Polar Vortex destruction!

It's a long shot. You got that part right. Head to the western highlands if you want a legit shot at a white SB Sunday. That has consistently been the signal for this period on the means. Nothing has changed.

Hell of a signal on the GEFS.

A couple photos from Terrapin yesterday. Bit of ice from the brief cold shot. Won't be seeing this again anytime soon as it looks now.

Be sure to check out his latest blog this week to find out!

51 here. Nice day and milder days to come this week. Bring it. Working on pond destruction to replace an old leaky liner. Not a fun job lol.

After our typical crappy/underperforming winters, most are mentally in a place to move on and that ideally means warmer and nicer weather. That is rarely how it goes in reality though. I thought last Spring and the transition into early Summer was about as good as it gets. Most of the time it shifts pretty quickly from chilly/damp miserable to warm and humid grossness.

The ens means have backed off over recent runs on any notable improvement in the longwave pattern for the long range. Hints of NAO help have disappeared for now, and the AO also remains positive. The atmospheric block that persists is the one we don't want, and not seeing signs of it weakening or shifting in a meaningful way at this point. There will be transient cold-ish shots behind cutters over the next couple weeks, so our best shot at frozen will probably be a well timed shortwave in the wake. Inland areas at elevation obviously have the best chance at lucking into something.

The disrupted Strat PV Hail Mary!! for March. Then it would need to couple to the troposphere and result in a significant -AO to be useful. Running out of time.

I'll get you that 120 now. Then I will show you the path to early Spring.

Inherently there is little margin for warming at our latitude to still get snow. Central/N NE are warmer too, but still pretty snowy. If this is the new normal for awhile, might be time to move for those who can't be content with a couple decent snow years per decade.

Did it really 'say' that? Or is that your interpretation.

The cutter torches the lower levels, and when it exits the legit cold/thermal boundary remains pretty far to our west/NW. That's where the following wave is going to develop, and drags the cold southeastward behind it this run. It isn't that far from being workable for places inland, like some previous runs.

Females survive winter by a form of hibernation. Not uncommon to see a few come out during milder periods.

That example was from a pattern that produced a KU, but many of the significant snow events for the MA lowlands have that general look. More recent example is the March 2018 storm. eta- also an example of HP being 'locked in place' , vs a progressive flow regime where HP is steadily moving as the area of upper level convergence/confluence that induced it moves with the flow. Need even more luck with timing.

Classic example. Maybe someday we will see this setup again.

14 A week of 50s to near 60 ahead. Might have to larvicide early this year.

Yeah continuing to see hints, especially on the EPS and CMC ens, of a somewhat improved h5 pattern for beyond mid month.

0z GEFS has the cutter late next week, then there are a handful of members that suggest coastal low development for next weekend. 3 or 4 manage to snow on us. Weak signal for frozen. EPS depicts a more clearly defined separation between the late week storm and a developing coastal low just beyond that. A good chunk of the members suggest trailing energy along the boundary, while others have some sort of secondary development from the lead system. Temps look very marginal on the mean until after most of the precip exits. Modest signal for frozen outside of the western higher terrain.

It's a general symptom of a not so good pattern. When we have a favorable pattern (NA block) there is a tendency for more HP around the lakes into eastern Canada(lower heights east of there), with disturbances approaching from the SW. What we are dealing with lately is largely the antithesis.

Morons can be 'entertaining' if engaged. Jordan Klepper knows how to do it.

12z EPS has a coastal storm look but not cold enough. A decent signal for frozen for the western highlands at this point.

The idea that a 1042 high is bullied by some wimpy low because it moves with the flow is amusing lol.

Head to Chesapeake and Maine for HH. If they have the Wake Up WWS get it. Incredible on tap.