40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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You going running now? -
Have some QPF....2/3 of this is still great
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I'm not that worried about it....trend will probably peak today.
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Euro, NAM and GEM all in very good agreement on precip type issues out to 495....right now, anyway.
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This may finally by my long awaited event that I take scooter to the shed.
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You don't have to twist my arm to take this run....cut this by at least a third...
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Yea, much safer run for you guys out there...with still the possible exception of CTRV. Not only downslope from easterly fetch, but also maybe subby due to deformation just west. I could see one max with lower fronto east, then another way out in Berks or e NYS into VT w mid level fronto. Still think there is a reasonable shot it wnt be this far west, though. Watch for this amped trend to steady and potentially even reverse this wknd.
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Doesn't really matter...hose is gone, anyway...
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Take
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Maybe if the precip was light, but that is the height of the hose and its pounding. Only thing I can think of is it just kills the ratios.
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I would take a foot of paste over 18" of powder, anyway.
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I'd get like 10-14" of paste that run.
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Firehose amped up a bit more. I'd take my chances with that run.
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It must give me like 8:1 ratio lol
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I'm going to sell that model run. Its overdoing the warmth IMO....weird. The precip algorithms make sense....they should be getting hardly precip type, issues, over an inch of QPF, yet like 8" of snow...makes zero sense.
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Run was worse than I thought....with those precip rates, I would have though -2 to -3C 925 would have been good enough. IDK, I'll take my chances with that, I think we'd do better than that. I think it overdoing the warmth.
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Warmest point during the height.....precip is pounding here, so -2C @ 925 may be good enough.....
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Hopefully it comes in with better inflow...just a NW track would suck....we'll see.
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Shit streak is lifting out faster....scooter wiped....stand by...
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+.5" Thursday. 22.5"..
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GEPS shifted west a bit...nothing dramatic.
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Yea, GEM is usually not cold on thermals, either.
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I'm glad we are getting this arctic plunge, even though it departs ahead of the event....flushing out that marine layer with an arctic plunger is never a bad thing on the eve of a big easterly firehose.
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Here is the GEM at H925 warmest point during the height of the event...you probably want -3 to be safely snow.
