40/70 Benchmark

Not my best work, as I blew the higher terrain south of the pike....should have done the Final Call. The rest of it was fine, albeit still a bit low in n ORH CO. Spring Nor' Easter Forecast Verification Spring Nor' Easter Forecast Verification A major premise of the forecast was that the higher elevations to the south of the Mass turnpike would not accumulate more than 2" of snowfall due to the fact that the dry slot would punch into the area shortly after the heavy precipitation changed over to snowfall during the early morning hours of Saturday. Eastern Mass Weather Forecast Snowfall However, there was ample support amongst guidance to suggest that dynamics would be sufficient as to advect colder air aloft down to elevations above 500' or so via the evaporational cooling process. This proved correct, as rain changed to snow across the higher terrain of northern CT shortly after midnight, and accumulated several inches in some locales that were only forecast to receive up to 2" of snow. Observed Snowfall Totals Despite the rest of the forecast working out fairly well, this was a major flaw and detracts a great deal from the quality of the overall forecast. Final Grade: C

+1.5" 51" on the season.

Looks like 1.5" will do it....I'm happy. 51" on the season after a 50-60" call on 11/5.

Not one of my better forecasts, but I was right about you getting hosed.....

The interior valleys are always death sentence in marginal events with easterly flow.....remember I was saying that I'd rather be in my area, along the interior coastal plane? This is why.

1.2" and still coming down moderately...seasonal forecast verified IMBY

Finally snow here.

All about being under the best lift....east of you and west of me.

Its because the lift is there.....same shit all season...rinse, repeat.

Oh, god....I'm having visions of Dec 1996.

Wow.

It does...its all about getting under the best lift, aside from elevation....you get better lift. The cold is coming down down from aloft via evaporative cooling....2 things augment said process.....heavy fall rates and elevation.

Heh....my forecast may be porked.

Elevation?

Fits with the tenor of the season....I miss by either 15 miles in either direction, or 300' el.

GFS has me at 4" on the 10:1...I think that map is doable, considering that I will not have 10:1....say 2" as a ceiling, which makes sense. My money is on flakes with either no accumulation, or a slushy film on grass.

39.4 R-

Your posts

Shocker.

I agree.....I'm in the conservative camp with NWS, Fisher and Harv. Not touching the map. Probably should have 1-3" over some of the C-2" area, but I am not doing a new map for that in mid April.

Only behind bushes with the ski suite on.

43.5 with sprinkles.

How was the 18z EURO?

Looks identical to my map, and Eric Fisher's. We'll see what happens.

I have him at 3-6".