40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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The energy out west is crashing the PNA ridging faster, too.
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Another huge problem that I see on the GFS is that the N stream is now waiting until about 21z on Saturday to begin dropping into whatever s stream energy we have on the east coast. It was dropping in at 00z on Saturday 24 hours ago....I think this, coupled with the turd lead SW near SNE is the death knell for this quicker phase right now. We have been without the energy near Baja for a few days now, so that can be overcome.
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Agreed.
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I think so....that is getting pretty close range. Better bet is to keep digging the n stream and hope that lead turd scrams.
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Plus alot of energy is hanging back near Baja.
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Member name change: NYCforumNOW
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That guy needs to be 5PPD...maybe invent a 3PPD.
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Wow....you had me.....I was like, really?
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Crushed, or in the game? Crushed....100mi......in the game...50mi.
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What I see mostly is a tightening of the timing and a drift west at 12z.
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There are def. more western members close to the Mass coast here on the 12z EPS relative to 06z....worth watching.
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Still quite a lean west at hr 114, east of Mass on the EPS....I agree with most that this is slipping away, but its not yet past tense.
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I expected more a December PNA than what materialized, and January was warmer than I had....only flaws, so far. I did have January mild, though...tough to forecast +6 months in advance, though I did that for February 2018...huge signal for obscene warmth.
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I count about 17 of the 52 EPS members that would result in a major storm for the area.
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Probably, but I'd give it 18 hours, or so...
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I was never on the big early blocking train....my idea of a variable early NAO in December leading to an active and wintery pattern worked out...but I expected the PV to be kicking a$$ and taking names again by the holidays for an extended period right through the heart of winter. Second half I had dependent on the atlantic and high latitudes....without it, early spring. My hedge was towards at least one good period of NAO, so waiting on that.
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Two observations regarding the 12z EPS. 1) Mean is about 100mi east of the BM 2) Most of the spread is SW and slower, with not much NE and faster Interpret that information as you will.
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I estimated that the descenion of the easterly QBO wave would take place by about February, which represents one factor contributing to an overall less hostile environment for blocking.
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This needs to change or it doesn't matter what the N stream does.
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There isn't much for the N stream to phase with since so much energy is held back near Baja.
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Its like Jeffrey Dahmer lecturing an ethics committee.
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Does it actually track closer, or is at just H5 improvement?
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Yea...12z tmw is my deadline.
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If I could, I wipe my a$$ with the outlook in exchange for having that polar stud bend the southern bell over the benchmark.
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All I needed to see for now.
