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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    This was the basis to my extreme First Call on Thursday. Still feel that way.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Which still ends up cat 4.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I have 30+ years myself, and still learn something new every year, so who knows....its def intensifying steadily, just maybe not the insane rates that we had expected...mainly because of Cuba IMHO.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, they probably want to avoid overshooting again, so just waiting on recon.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wow...maybe compensating since the 105mph was originally a bit generous.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Cat 3 125mph
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    My money is on 115mph.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    More like 15-18 hrs
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably, but not a given...15' surge is possible
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    That will be challenged IMO...will be close, unless it curls more west
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Bad for wind, good for surge.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Raul, this rate of intensification just make an ERC less likely.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    This system reminds me of a post ERC storm in terms of sat presentation...just an anecdotal ob.. .I wonder if some funky internal stuff went on due to friction of land
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I got burned expecting that with Michael...its generally the case, but not always.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Be careful assuming ingest of drier continental air upon approach....thre is a mositure feed from central America.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Wouldn't building of ridge trend it west?
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Your only shot is a track far enough west.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Doesn't have time for an ERC....watch.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Now that is a catastrophic ensemble suite.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nah, too far west on that run
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    NO needs the bend back more westward in the GOM because right now eastern envelop is favored.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Odds are they won't get the very worst of it, but I felt it prudent to really emphasize the danger because its perfectly feasible
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Strong most likely? Good luck.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is why the majority of the most intense US LFs are not long tracker CV storms...that, and less chance for recurve.
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