I have no issue with that and am not implying a worse outcome...I just mean that some future runs may go nuts, and have S CT salivating, only to trend back or just be wrong.
This is a pretty easy forecast...these are usually straight forward. Thermals will waffle, but just default to a climo forcast.
Forecast 10"+ anywhere at your own peril.
If you have clandestine blockbuster aspirations, then you are going to end up flustered because this is not that type of system....but I see it as a high percentage play for moderate impact.
I foresee at least a good 4-8" deal, and maybe more like 6-10"....classic SWFE that includes a digging SW to the west attenuating, as it encounters said confluent flow over se Canada.