40/70 Benchmark
-
Posts
73,895 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
-
The evacuation of energy is every bit as important as the ingest, just the same as it is with respect to human beings. This is why you can't just stare at SST charts in a vacuum to inform forecasts.
-
Bingo....that was always our only avenue to history with Henri, and it too looks to fail.
-
The system was never likely to encounter the pristine conditions needed in the upper atmosphere to recover entirely from being nearly gutted by that hostile encounter with shear. It was too far north. Gulf stream takes care of the fuel at the surface, but entire exhaust system and a significant portion of the mositure transport that feeds these giant heat engines takes place aloft.
-
There are still a few analyzing every latest sat image convincing themselves that it's about to "take off"...lol Its always been going to be a bad nor Easter.
-
I would give a greater than 50/50 shot it landfalls as a TS, but won't make a difference.
-
I've always just expected hydro issues...its not going to intensify much.
-
Euro likes my Montauk point idea.
-
Shocker...
-
I'm not criticizing NHC...you have to act conservatively in that position.
-
Montauk Point....watch.
-
They did in response to the trends of this past day.
-
The NHC often is slow to react to trends in an effort to avoid overreacting and windshield wipering....there is a lag, if you will....they will drift back eastward tmw.
-
I think things overcorrected too far to the left...its not hitting NYC.
-
Seven weather team may end up being bunned
-
Opposite...outflow from it is inhibiting.
-
It doesn't mean banana hammock lol...Just no extreme threats.
-
Yea, that is where my highest prob cone is..
-
I wouldn't buy into that. .
-
First Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/08/hurricane-watch-issued-for-south-coast.html
-
People see intense convection and prematurely ejaculate before becoming privy to the importance of internal structure and the processes (both internal and external) that dictate it.
-
I have been saying that for the past couple of days....you probably aren't getting pristine conditions near the latitude of Hatteras, which is when it will encounter its best envt.
-
Modoki la nina is not preferred for east coast weather fans....its the opposite of el nino, whereas modoki el nino is favorable. However, modoki la nina doesn't seem quite as hostile as east-based el nino because the forcing is usually weaker. The moral of the story is that you always want the coolest anomalies in the eastern based regions because it tends to focus convection further west, all things being equal.
-
LOL I was just noticing that quote from me you have in your sig...I remember I made that out of frustration when the GFS pulled the rug out and a good snow event ended up a rainer. I was so pissed bc I was calling for a huge snow month, which eventually worked out, thankfully lol
-
Post that winter outlook now bc it may be a while...
