40/70 Benchmark

The clinical defense mechanism is termed "over compensation"...

Yea, I'll take my chances.

This event even went to $hit for the maratimes?

I like February...just don't expect great retention with that boundary near me.

I said it a few days ago...I'll bet we end up on the right side of the gradient this month...then we wait to see if the pole and Atlantic can become more favorable later in the month and into March.

More cases of coronavirus this winter than snowstorms.

It didn't on the first closed low fail two weeka ago... UK was north and Euro was trying to give us snow, which was wrong.

La nina does not automatically mean a mild winter, especially above 40N.

January recap and February thoughts... https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/01/protracted-mid-winter-thaw-more-extreme.html

Had the right idea on the extended mild period from around the holidays through January, but it was more extreme than I had thought. Protracted Mid-Winter Thaw More Extreme Than Expected: February Throughts January Review Here are the expectations for the month of January as expressed in the 11-13-19 Eastern Mass Weather Winter Outlook. "January remains fairly active, at least throughout the first half. The PNA ridge begins to erode, however the PV may be undergoing some dysregulation, so the PNA relaxation may be offset to a degree. Departures normal to -1 NNE, normal to +1 for SNE and the mid atlantic". Eastern Mass Weather 11-13-19- Here is how the month verified: While the general theme of a mild month was correct, the southeast ridge was more prevalent than expected and the Pacific more hostile than anticipated. Thus the month was even milder than forecasted. February Preview Last fall, Eastern Mass Weather expected that February would also be mild due in large part of a persistent RNA pattern. However the development of blocking late in the month is more precarious. "Full-fledged RNA ensues for February, as any influence that weak el nino or warm-neutral coupling had established may die. In The polar vortex will need to relent, or this will be a very mild month with the storm track west. +1to +2 throughout the northeast. +2 to +3 in the mid atlantic. Beware an eventful president's day should blocking establish itself. February 17-March 2nd may be conducive". Eastern Mass Weather 11-13-19- "Winter will be waning long before month's end in the absence of high latitude blocking, given the hellacious southeast ridge in place. However at least some sustained blocking is likely. Since there will be cold air lurking to the north at the very least, this does not look like a "dead-ratter", even without blocking". Eastern Mass Weather 11-13-19- How quickly winter wanes should be dependent on the degree to which the polar vortex can become consistently dysregulated, however as it appears to remain rather resilient at least throughout the first half of February. Polar Evolution The polar vortex is obviously stout and centered near the pole to begin the month of February. However it does look to withstand a minor assault next week, which may coincide with a wintery overrunning threat. Here is the forecasted behavior of the polar domain, which is congruent with the forecasted behavior of the polar vortex. The winter storm threat next week that is concurrent with the relaxation of the well defined polar vortex is apparent on ensemble guidance. The battle between the pressing cold and the southeast ridge owed to the RNA is on. However the descending EPO should ensure a cold air source. Snow or a mix (sleet, rain, ice) is likely to the north of the Mass pike, and a mix or rain is likely south. The following week, or the second week of February features a recovering polar vortex, which has been a theme throughout boreal winter 2019-2020. But there are some signs that it may endure at least a slightly more sustained attack beyond mid month, which is when conditions should become more favorable for the second major winter storm of the season between February 17 and March 2. The overall tenor of March may very well be contingent upon how quickly and proficiently the polar vortex can recover yet again.

I feel like next week will set the tone for the month, assuming blocking does not develop before March...often in these gradient patterns the timing with respect to the orientarion of the high keeps repeating throughout entire succession of waves.

I think a good bit of these will work out this month, but that's just a hedge....no way to truly tell without blocking.

Yea, minimal investement until 72-96 hours out is advisable.

Exactly why I do it....also refreshes my understanding from the ground up each fall. I will just link it, though, and review myself before writing each fall. I get the frustration of having to refer back to p63, paragraph two as if we are the supreme court interpreting the law. I do all of this work, and no one remembers the forecast.

Yea, KU events are more favored during el nino, but obviously they happen during all phases of ENSO. I actually think my presentation needs alot of work, as some have pointed out....my key points get lost in the verbose explanations of general concepts. I will address that next year by leaving that out and referencing it via hyperlinks.

I don't feel like we are going to get something of that caliber...that was a juiced STJ. But I think we can pull another big coastal snow event in a few weeks.

They can be predicted to a degree..its the forecaster's job to diagnose which seasons will have the propensity to produce anomalously large events. Are there some seasons that are more predictable than others? Sure.. We had a huge mid atl blizzard during that record 2015-2016 el Nino that caused everyone to abandon the idea of much sensible winter appeal at all. I called for it just about as explicitly as possible and it occured during the two week stretch that I had identified...it was an oasis of winter in a sea of warmth.

I've done relatively well forecasting snowfall. There is an element of luck to anything...you can't live your life on a spreadsheet. While snowfall definitely has more variance than H5 patterns and the resultsant temperature departures...at the end of the day, its my passion for winter that drives these efforts. Snow is at the heart of many weather enthusiasts' passion. This is why I don't vomit out a composite map with some attendant temp departures and walk. Predicting snowfall is the fun part and keeps me engaged. While no one will nail snowfall every season, good forecasters will predict snowfall more accurately than the ones that blow. Take that to the bank. I don't get the idea that predicting snowfall is not a worthwhile endeavor. Its akin to a slugger not bothering to swing the bat because of some ludicrous aversion to the BABIP gods. No..they take batting practice. Forecasting snowfall is hard and will often humble even the highest quality and most exhaustive of efforts. Here is an idea.....research more and get better-

Well, I forecasted trivial....upwards of an inch for cape and se MA with an upwards of 2" bullseye interior se MA near Taunton.

My First Call may work out....hedged towards a bump west.

30-40" more.

1994 overrunning

Like 90 in March..could go that route if the NAO fails, but I doubt it.

2018 also had a major SSW in February, which was the primary impetus for that grande finale...

Totally agree.