40/70 Benchmark

Like 90 in March..could go that route if the NAO fails, but I doubt it.

2018 also had a major SSW in February, which was the primary impetus for that grande finale...

Totally agree.

Warm cars when the sun is out with no need for heat.

@Typhoon Tip Winter 2017-2018 was pretty good, but other than that, regression...yea.

Yea, my effort wasn't perfect, but its been one of the best IMHO. We'll see how it goes from here....

I think that event is where the mid Atlantic may receive the bulk of their seasonal alottment.

My second window for major winter storm potential is 2/17 to 3/2, which I had envisioned as a potential phase change event into a more favorable NAO regime back in November. I think that still has a shot.

Most likely...

It will probably work out better than last year.

I enjoy snow and pleasant weather....with bare ground? Keep the cold and cracked earth.

If it isn't going to snow, why not?

I never ammend anticipated seasonal totals...they are what they are. However I am not concerned, at this point.

I'm pretty objective...last year I was awful.

I disagree. I think mine has done well....granted I was not extreme enough with January warmth, but I am satisfied.

With bad luck, yes...possible.

Man, reel it in, boys.....middle of winter was always supposed to blow after the quick start. We have had some chanceams the past 5-6 weeks, but it hasn't worked out. Its always been clear that the PAC would remain awful and we would await NAO/AO assit. If that does not come, it will remain very mild. I still think skme help will materialize, but probably not until latter Feb or March, at this rate. In the mean time, enjoy the warm spell and hope that we can luck out and avail of EPO dump with a well timed wave. I'll update this weekend...but no big changes. This reminds me of 2017-2018 a bit...not necessarily saying epic March, but...

People have lost it...wow

Still not entirely convinced, so went ahead an issued for the most trivial amounts that I ever have. There probably will be no need for a Final Call, but it would be Friday night. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2020/01/super-bowl-storm-potential-no-show.html

I think he lost the list. I still want to see the northern SW onshore, but not taking any names lol

I get the H5 jokes...pretty sure I coined the sarcastic version of "looks great at H5"...but anyone looking to advance their understanding of how the atmosphere works should remain mindful of variation aloft, regardless of modeled sensible appeal. Anyone who feels as though any piece of guidance was consistent is either passively aggressively projecting frustration onto others, or has a low met aptitude and should probably post less. Last bit of bandwidth I will waste on this topic.

The irony of a guy always going on about how he enjoys the science of meteorology disregarding H5 in analysis...poetically hypocritical.

Exactly.

I promise you the sensible weather over other area was not correct. Just because it may correctly forecast no snow here doesn't mean it nailed the evolution, Mr. "I enjoy the science of it"..

Well, I did get 19" in early Dec....better than the largest in most seasons, nvm that time of year..