40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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I saw that...downslope?
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Congrats, Caribou
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Yea, I expected it to be worse, but its not...you're right.
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Another trend this season, but good in this case...otherwise its 2-5", then washed away.
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I have no issue with that and am not implying a worse outcome...I just mean that some future runs may go nuts, and have S CT salivating, only to trend back or just be wrong.
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Models seem to always underestimate mid level warmth, though...I'd defer to NAM on that closer in.
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Its a bit colder than 00z, 0C 7H makes it to about Boston, rather than S NH.....I'd hedge warmer on that.
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This is a pretty easy forecast...these are usually straight forward. Thermals will waffle, but just default to a climo forcast. Forecast 10"+ anywhere at your own peril.
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Christine will soon be clad in leopard skin thongs that will forever evade Tip's eyes, since the great Fox Hall restraining order of 1992.
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No, he'd ask you if maybe time will tell?
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That sounds about right, to me for a SWFE.
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AWT.
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Here is the full blog: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/02/additional-snowfall-likely-case-of.html
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Doing those exercises helps me understand it, too.....like homework. If you don't practice, then it can be tough to grasp.
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If you have clandestine blockbuster aspirations, then you are going to end up flustered because this is not that type of system....but I see it as a high percentage play for moderate impact.
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I foresee at least a good 4-8" deal, and maybe more like 6-10"....classic SWFE that includes a digging SW to the west attenuating, as it encounters said confluent flow over se Canada.
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I foresee at least a good 4-8" deal, and maybe more like 6-10".
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Its running into confluence, that is why. I don't think it means any less snowfall for SNE because otherwise, it would track further west.
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Ideally we could all sneak a little FRZ Drizzle, which is key in providing protection from the quickly strengthening solar irradiance this time of year.
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Sell.
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I'll be ambivalent because I want to be right, but its certainly better than busting high, like I have the past two seasons....started to feel like Henry Margusity without the degree.
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I would take the IP/FRZ over 1-2" of fluff on Sunday.
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I would actually like to get some of that to seal the pack, but I don't think the warming aloft will get far enough north....
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I feel pretty confident my call for Methuen of 50-60" will bust a bit low, which pisses me off because I was torn on whether to go 50-60", of 60-70". Looks like I choose wrong. I think my seasonals will generally run a bit low in SNE, and high in NNE.
