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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. Even during a blocked flow...you still get the interference. Pacific state and flow make it difficult.
  2. This is partly why you don't get blockbusters in stronger la nina events....splattering of PAC waves everywhere, so they manage to interfere with one another just enough.
  3. I was saying earlier...this is akin to one of the post ERC hurricanes.....as it approaches, the cat 4-5 winds go "poof", as the circulation becomes large and ragged, and the weenies start to focus on the areal coverage of surge and cat 1-2 winds. Same thing here.....
  4. Agreed....the "no blockbuster in the second half of a mod or strong nina" rule looks to stand.
  5. You see it time and time again....everyone talks up how slowly it moves...capture this, and cut off that....crawl over there....then as we get near the event...."nice thump".....
  6. I like it....I'd love it if the ULL didn't stretch from Raliegh, NC to MHT.
  7. Its a nice thump, but not much sign of the "crawling, stalling, etc"....looks like a pretty ordinary slug that sweeps through.
  8. He just said eastern areas may not like it...no specification. But he elaborated that he meant CC, which I get.
  9. Yea, I wasn't crazy about that, either. NAM is usually pretty good with that, as well as mid level warming.
  10. You seemed to imply it was bad for eastern areas....not at this point IMO. We all needed things to trend back.
  11. It also limits the ceiling for other spots, which obviously you don't care about. I'd like to tighten it up....
  12. NAM looks like most other guidance now....I normally agree with Jeff, but not sure what the concern is at this point...unless "eastern areas" means the cape and far southeast MA.
  13. My point is the NAM went NW at 12z, then to Bermuda...now NW. Most models we needed to go NW bc of the previous se trend.
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