40/70 Benchmark

82.5" and beat ORH...take. Methuen probably had near 90".

Yea, I am pretty sold on a weak la nina. Here is an excerpt from my blog...not the end all be all, but climo tidbits like that add confidence: Climatology is also strongly opposed to the notion of an el nino. Currently, the ONI for the AMJ tri-monthly period sits at -0.5c. Dating back to 1950, there are only four years that featured a negative ONI value for the AMJ tri-monthly period and went on to develop into a classified el nino. They are: 1976: -0.3c 2018: -0.2c 1986:-0.1c 2006: -0.1c Thus since 1950, no el nino event developed following an AMJ ONI value this low, which would make the development of an el nino later this year unprecedented. In fact, climatology actually favors the development of a la nina at this point. Only once since 1950 (1989 -0.6C) has there not been an official la nina registered during the autumn or winter following a AMJ tri-monthly ONI of -0.5c or lower.

LOL I probably have about 3 more years before I head back south a bit.

Highly doubt that.

I would rather weak la nina, but cold neutral is fine...not a huge deal.

Yep. I'm not sure that we have ever had two consecutive la nina events both pull that BLSW crap that the last one did. I will certainly bet against a repeat next year with a high degree of confidence.

Came across an interesting article examining the relationship between QBO and MJO. Postulates that since 1980, an easterly QBO has enhanced the MJO and made the waves last longer, which augments model skill during the winter. The opposite is the case in westerly years....ie, shorter and more incoherent MJO waves lead to poorer model performance. The impact on guidance at least makes sense to me. https://www.nature.com/articles/s43017-021-00173-9

Gun-to-head: Weak la Nina. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2021/07/la-nina-watch-for-boreal-winter-2021.html

This will have to be close to the rainiest July on record...wow.

"Your" problem...not mine. February was good IMBY.

Its all that has happened in 5 months.

No-brainer.

Looks like last winter...right on the edge up here.

Yea, like I said...its weather and its a weather forum. Haha Beats temp talk.

Yea, I just see the light at the end of the ennui by August.

Its been a rainy summer in contrast to last year.

I would be all in on a bonafide tropical event impacting the area, but this is the same crap that we always get....at least give me a Bob or Gloria deal. Pretty good rule of thumb that impact will be tempered when you have a minimal tropical system traversing land for hundreds of miles before veering across the southern half of the region.

Worthwhile tropical activity and the onset of seasonal transition/winter outlook prep.

I guess it beats debating 87 vs 83, but nothing I'll waste time and energy blogging about.

Yea, it will be windy for the usual spots, but NBD. The big amount of water in a short duration over the interior will be the biggest issue.

Wake me up when July ends.

Right, but it was still technically an el nino.

No, we had two consecutive el nino events ending the season before last.

I agree.

Its hard enough to accurately predict the mean index states/intensities over the course of a given DM period, but also nailing the timing/evolution and how those nuances impact sensible weather, like snowfall....good luck lol.