40/70 Benchmark

91-92 was a strong east-based el nino....maybe the volcano enhanced the impact as far as +NAO/AO, but I don't think that season needed much help to suck.

Yea, I would take the over.

Hey, almost more than I had for July and August combined....nice dent.

Is it me, or does the constant need for Eric Fisher to give very PC responses get on your last nerve? He is on twitter talking about how he felt dissapointed over Edouard whiffing in '96 bc he was just a dumb kid...I replied that any adult weather enthusiast would be disappointed whether they admit it or not. Guy gets on my nerves.

Finally...I think its over.

Yea, obviously..same here. La nina was the priority. That changes next year.

Figure it has to rain appreciably here at some point....maybe this is it.

Will you be smiln'?

I need to do en Nino composites, as well. I'll do those either next spring or summer.

If you look through the composites, it matches up pretty well with what you would expect., with descent above the coolest anomalies, and ascent aligned with the warmer.

I included velocity potential along with the H5/temp and precip composites.

Well, I only use analogs back to 1950, so the 1951-2010 climo period is fine for me.

I'm sure the cut-off will be a couple of miles N of me.

Down to 44.1 this AM.

Well, I never said I'd forecast a big year down there. I will put numbers to everything in a couple of months. It's tough to discuss is too much right now because there is still a great deal of equivocating at this early juncture.

Thanks. I'll give that a shot. Like Summy said, the latest climo period does begin to wash out the anomalies, which defeats the purpose. That's why you need to use a larger climo period.

Its actually on Long island.

We need Forky to remind you that the snow stopped and the vis improved.

Without reading the article, I am going to take a wild guess and assume that this correlates to a +NAO/AO this winter and an enhanced PV.

Its no coincidence why this composite gives us the warmest look...its west-based.

What is important is how the sst anomalies at a given posotion manifest themselves into the weather pattern around the hemisphere, not an arbitrary longitude where you feel as though said manifestation should take place. Anyway, just my view....we are all different.

I guess we are just going to have to agree to disagree on this. The anomaly in this composite is centered at like 165-170W, which is pretty far to the west, and that is reflected in the resultant H5 and VP (forcing) composites.

I feel like you may not be coming up with a modoki composite because your criteria is too stringent and exclusive....ie, are you looking for seasons that did not have any la nina strength (-0.5C or cooler) at all over the central and east Pacific? If you look at the verbiage in my composites, that is a reflection of the criterion that peer reviewed, academic pieces use...like "small cooling" and "weak anomalies" over other sections. IOW, a west based event need not be entirely void of la nina caliber anomalies in regions further east, they just need to be very weak from around 150W points eastward, with the strong emphasis west of 150. It may help to look at the visual SST composites of my three groups for a more vidual representation.

You are referring to the intensity composites....yea, its because of the climo period. I used 1951-2010 for the temps, which will accentuate the positive anomalies due to the more expansive climo period encompassing a cooler overall global canvass several decades ago. However, the H5 composite would only allow me to utilize the 1981-2010 period, which attenuates the positive height anomalies because it excludes that same coolest stretch from several decades ago. I really wish the H5 composite would allow me to use 1951-2010...I said this to Will the other day.