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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree with this from what I have been looking at....my finished product should be out in a couple of weeks. How is your NAO formula this season? Positive?
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I've bee looking at la nina structure a lot this week. Its interesting because your winter forecast composite looks much more like a CP, west-based la nina.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thank you. I think have above average confidence this season...cleared up any ambivalence today.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Do you guys nowhere to find the ECMW ENSO plumes? All I can find is SIPS, and it was discontinued last year.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    He is usually just before me...early Novie
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I dont know why I can't get mine that detailed....this is all I can get
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I like the other site better, but too bad it doesn't go back that far.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that's all I have, too. Thanks.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    One interesting thing that I am noticing is that 1970-71 is listed as a mixed-basin-wide la nina in my data set, but the forcing was definitely more like an east-based event, and it isn't close. What is the best site to access SST archive data? Tabular weekly ENSO data only goes to 1990, which pains me.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    That must be the Feb 10"er that I recall in Wilmington....one worthwhile event in the second half IMO.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    On to Novie.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is probably my second best December, though....only recason why it loses to 1995 is because it had an ill timed grincher-thaw. 2008 was number 3.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Even in my area there was nothing to write home about after December....par for the course in la nina...but that was extreme.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I wouldn't argue that point, however, do think that the course of lease regret is to consider intensity when parsing potential analogs. I agree with you that there are many other important factors. I do understand why it is less important for you since you focus on sensible weather in your analogs. I think that there is a very good argument to be made for using MEI to sort by intensity, rather than ONI, though.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Even closing in on 40, I could keep 90" in the memory bank lol
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would take a 2007 replica season and run.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    That makes sense. Thank you.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    You don't have an issue with the fact that half of your analogue seasons are opposite ENSO state? Of course, that doesn't mean they can't end up similar sensible weather wise..... I would assume that you expect the Aleutian ridge to be flat, then?
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't understand just selecting four random seasons because they are +NAO/AO. Not to say that this winter can not be very mild with a +NAO and flat Aleutian ridge, but that approach just seems lackadaisical and unscientific to me. Then again, I guess the analogs used to to derive the composite do not matter if accurately reflects how you feel the season will play out.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its not the only factor, but you mean to say that you see very little commonality between like ENSO states of similar intensity?
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would watch for a lull period this season, though likely warmer.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, I did say that...along with Will. I never laid my thoughts out, though. Big difference between the two winters was the NAO.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I do think it sets up, but will not persist all season.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its important to note that although I do value it as an analog, I do not expect the entirety of the season to transpire exactly like that. I know that you know this. I will explain how that season will be representative of the overall pattern and when.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Interesting- I would say 1999-2000 is the best QBO match of the 3....1970 and 2007 were very negative QBO.
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