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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Like I said in the blog last month, statistical guidance is skewed by the fact that it's one of the most potent cool ENSO events on record in terms of the MJJ and JJA ONI, but dynamical guidance has a better handle on what is going on in the atmosphere...which is what is most important.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Oh, my bad...I meant the winter after this one will be el nino. This one will not...my mistake.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Opposite of last winter would be a neg NAO December....we had the one good shot of neg NAO in Dec, but the month averaged slightly positive.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Don't worry, someone will come in with a tweet from Eric Webb showing some random wind anomaly that supposedly supports the strongest la nina in the history of the universe. Writing is on the wall for a rapid demise after a border line weak/mod peak later this fall...been saying it since mid summer.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    He said only if you watch
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll get on it.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    .91" IMBY as of 330pm.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think considering how dry it has been, we def. want to start seeing organized systems impact the region.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe a harbinger of winter with a dominant polar jet and diffuse s stream? Some models hint...
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is def. the winter pre-season...first OTA for old man winter. Finally an organized system.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    The only people I know of that did not are Larry Cosgrove and @raindancewx. Both on my short list of must-read every fall.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its always the b*tchiest that get the spoils, unless its me.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    You down for another GTG later this fall?
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Did DT predict a big cane season? I know he's been around...
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Heavy, heavy confusion
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    South of the front its not cool, north of the front, its cool. Go figure.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    62.2 IMBY....that's pretty cool for closing on midday in early September.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    DBIST.....Seymour Stein was his name.....killing SW CT plant life was his game.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    That sounds believable based on what it looked like in the Wilmington area driving own I 93.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Glad to see you, bro
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    You know its been a boring year when we fight over rain.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    That area is due for some precip regression.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Same page....been saying the Pacific is going to look better this winter than a lot of people think. The surface of the tropical Pacific belies what is going on right now in the atmosphere. I think the eruption is also playing a role with respect to the dead tropics if you read some the research that raindance referenced.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    That should hold up again.
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