40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Beyond my lifetime....def. a bit more quickly in Jersey.
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I for one do not care to have a vortex as weak as last year.
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I suspect that was the case in 1995-1996? I need to research the Indonesia dipole...don't really know much about that. Could have a STJ in play more typical of el nino, which is what we had in 1996. 2000-2001 was just a very active N stream.
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Yea, many years after the daily max temps begin to rise more precipitously....as of now, its mainly mins, which does not reduce snowfall at this latitude. It will slow the icing of ponds, sure.
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Right....more "lump sum" dumps...goes with the theme.
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SNE "Tropical" Season Discussion 2021
40/70 Benchmark replied to WxWatcher007's topic in New England
I certainly do not see anything blog worthy as of yet. -
Well, it was a harrowing night, but I survived. Will post pics one week from never.
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Seems as though the impact of global warming on snowfall is mimicking the trend in the distribution of wealth over the past 50 years in that there is in ever greater distinction between the "haves" and "have nots".
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Our snowfall def has not decreased any since 2007, I can tell you that.
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Looks to back up what Will was saying...the more marginal areas, like Virginia, lower plains and lower terrain of PNW have decreased, while parts of NE have actually increased.
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2021-2022 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to StormchaserChuck!'s topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
The percentages look a bit more optimistic for snowfall in the mid Atlantic than the text map. Strange that it implies that the mid ATL does better than SNE, too. Not sure I would hedge that way. -
Nice, yea...just as I had thought. Last March was a nice catalyst for regression lol
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Thanksgiving turkies drowning everywhere in the 1950s.....
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Just as it does in typical warm air advection.
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I could def. see the freezing of ponds being delayed as a result of global warming...that makes sense. I was just speaking strictly in terms of seasonal snowfall locally when I disputed the impact of global warming.
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2021-2022 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to StormchaserChuck!'s topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
2008 also featured the two-pronged heavy event around that same date. -
Given that the vast majority of warming, at least locally, is being observed with respect to nighttime lows, I would venture to guess that any decrease in snow cover days is more at the bookends of the season...in December and March. I would actually strongly favor December given seasonal lag and increased propensity for blocking patterns during the spring. In short, I would guess December is seeing the lion's share of a decease in snowcover days (sorry rev) over the course of the past 30+ years.
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No. Looks like it is a park?
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That was my original contention in the post that John replied to. What are you referring to then?
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I would characterize 2010-2011, 2013-2014, and 2014-2015 as pretty good retention winters over the course of the past decade....even 2017-2018 in March. I think achieving a snowpack of near 3' in eastern Mass twice in a decade is at least average frequency, and probably above.
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There is also a theory that since the polar region is warming fastest by far, that we may be more prone to high latitude blocking, but that is more nebulous. I know that Will had an interesting counter to that theory a few years back, but I can't remember what it was. The rest of the support for snowfall not decreasing much around here anytime soon is really isn't debatable.
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2021-2022 ENSO
40/70 Benchmark replied to StormchaserChuck!'s topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Well, given that we are in the fall, its the earlier season...ie 2008-2009, 1975-1976. -
Exactly. Great post.
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When our mean snowfall begins to decline, let me know.
