40/70 Benchmark

I would take that look in a heartbeat. Good look for my area. That is about the timing of when 12/08 started up. Second week of the month.

Yea, that looks good. I think we will see some NAO later in the month, too.

Its pretty bad.

Here are my thoughts on December. I still feel okay about this, through it may end up being a bit warmer then I thought. December 2021 Outlook December Analogs: 2007, 2000 (x2), 1974, 1970, 1995, 2005 (x2), 2017 (x2), 2008, 1983, 2020 The polar vortex should take some assaults throughout the latter portion of November and much of December, however, it should remain intact and ultimately intensify and consolidate beyond the New Year and later in January. This is consistent with basin-wide, mixed-type la nina events. The month should be active with a multitude of moderate snowfalls for the northeast, with the most significant event likely to occur the week of Christmas between the 19th and 26th. A white Christmas is highly likely for the majority of the region and a storm on the holiday itself is a distinct plausibility. Plan accordingly. Although the focus will be on the northeast via a mix of Miller B systems and southwest flow events whenever blocking relaxes, the mid atlantic should receive some snowfall due to a subtle subtropical influx coupled with a variable PNA. The month should not be exceedingly frigid, as the very mild fall has ensured a late developing cold reservoir. Anywhere from near normal close to the coast to as much -2 departures well inland should cover the monthly departures The thing to watch this month is whether we can get the lower heights flushed out of AK this month. If we can, I think we are right on track for a decent season....if we do not, then that spells trouble IMO. Hopefully someone can post the latest guidance...

This is our primary concern for winter IMO....if we have an awful December, then I think we are porked. I still do not expect that, but it is a concern.

Yea, I'm sure that broke your heart. It seems worse for la nina than it is for el nino. I did see that and actually quoted and commented on it. What I said was that it is the most disturbing piece of data yet fans of winter on the east coast, and is a viable concern. 2005-2006 is one of my main analogs, and I have 2011-2011 as a strong extratropical Pacific analog. That said, I am not yet imminently concerned. If December is awful even in New England, then sound the alarms.

2011-2012 was NOT east based.

Pat's weren't playing...I planned it that way.

Looking at the daytime scenes...that degree of solar irradiance is comensurate with at least April.

I just researched and confirmed that National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation was filmed during the spring...I always suspected that because of the scene in the beginning when they were going to cut down the xmas tree. The snow was very deep in shaded areas back away from the highway, but melted near the highway....those large variations in snow depth are representative of spring, not December.

No, we were at Funky Murphy's Jamuary 2019.

I finished today. All decorated, too.

Fisher hates snow

I wasn't a fan of her ganstah tats...could have used a bit more cushion, but caboose was okay

I think 6pm if a week day, 3pm if a weekend.

This is the smoking gun for change IMO....great post. I made a few posts about how we needed the convection to get out of the bowels of the maritime continent and move east towards the dateline. Theoretically speaking, the eastward propagation of la nina should help that.

It's certainly a better overall analog than 2011....the latter is a great Pacific analog (except for the fact la nina was a modoki), but it just isn't a very appropriate representation of the polar domain. The reason 2016 was not higher on my list is because it was very decidedly modoki with a westerly QBO, which is not a conducive environment for blocking.

I understand why people are anxious...its disturbing seeing low heights INVOF AK to begin the season, but I mentioned in the write up that that would be a thing this season. 2011-2012 was used as a Pacific analog for a reason. However, I am confident that it will not ruin the season like it did 10 years ago. It's not going to be a wall to wall winter and we just need to tolerate that.

I don't, history does....the data is there.

It already went negative at 50mb during October. I included all of the -QBO La nina stuff in my outlook. We should see blocking reemerge later this season.

Rat is climo for November.

Everyone does....just like 2017, and we slammed a correct forecast down the consensus' throat then, too.