40/70 Benchmark

Yea, I certainly do not buy 1' in Boston....that ageo look is overdone...zero doubt.

I wouldn't forecast this right now, but I bet a lot of those seaward solutions end up as Miller B deals like the current GFS.

I think a lot of guidance being diffuse and OTS is a tacit nod to the GFS scenario because it can be inferred that the parent mechanics will not be that strong...ie ultimately it will transfer sooner...kind of like when the inverse scenario of when the inverted trough shows up on models as just a provisional solution until the model realizes not much will happen.

I'm making my visuals right now....I think its all about how quickly that energy transfers to the coast, which will be determine by how deep the parent system and how pervasive the polar airmass is. We want weaker parent energy and strong, stubborn antecedent polar air mass to induce a faster transfer to truncate the SW flow aloft....THAT is what will change this from a SWFE to a miller B. Could get best of both worlds, too, in the you get a SWFE, that then gives way to a miller B, especially north and east. 12z OP GFS shows this. You can toss the rules regarding how much snow you can get in a SWFE at that point because its no longer a SWFE..its a coastal.

GFS has that high hanging tough....not even retreating. Character of this event has really changed....PER GFS.

Its events out over the long haul....look at last January haha

@Isotherm Hope all is well, bud..see you browsing.

This is why it nukes from my area into Maine. Not ready to bite on that yet...emerging consistency, though.

GFS is closing mid levels as it passes...thats not a SWFE, but rather late-boom Miller B deal

Looks like the Hadley Cell ate it

You should trying fighting with Tip....its one of the most educational exercises imaginable. lol

The GFS must try to really sprout a coastal....totally gone wild that run. Gives me like 18"

I am trying to get a million things done today...saw that the Novie plot decently matched MJO 6/nina plot, and went out on a limb without checking and it blew up on me hahaha

I'm not arguing that it isn't biased in favor of S hem...I'll defer to your source on that. And its also very questionable whether it ever gets to phase 8, but there is plenty of evidence that it excites in phase 7.

Not the whole time. I was in an out running errands and didn't have time to pull up the MJO plot, but should have.

Before I viewed that graphic, it certainly appeared to me that the MJO had an imprint on November....probably like everything else, the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

Well, it spent most of the month in the circle of death...but the monthly composite looked an awful lot like what you would expect if it were impacting. lol

I created a lot of confusion by implying the MJO influenced November very much because it did not. However, I don't think its a coincidence that a lot of the long range guidance has the gradient look that is featured in MJO phase 7 during la nina composite, as the MJO reinvigorates in said phase.

I was driving....sorry. You were right about November. I should have checked before making that assertion. However, I stand by the fact that the MJO should definitively have some signifiant influence moving forward in the month of December while in phase 7.

I have never implied that you don't know what you're talking about, but I think sometimes you get extremely focused on one changing aspect of the atmosphere, namely the Hadley Cell expansion, and it biases your perception of everything else.

What is lost on you is that the pattern in place has been consistent with an MJO wave in the marine continent during la nina. Launching vulgarities doesn't make you right.

I knew you'd say that. We'll agree to disagree that the MJO has zero contribution to the N Hem pattern anymore.

MJO coherency IS your point whether you realize it or not because you are implying that it is not leaving an imprint on the N hemispheric pattern, when in fact it has been. It has been stuck in phase 6 for awhile now...and it is no coincidence that the the Nov 2021 composite: Looks an awful lot like the composite for phase 6 of the MJO during la nina ENSO:

Two weeks from today at 3pm. See you guys in a couple of weeks to talk about the white xmas and onset of a great pattern.

I could live with that