40/70 Benchmark

Well, I was obviously being sarcastic when referring to last year as tame from the standpoint of overall tropical activity.....but from an impact standpoint? At least in New England, I had already forgotten about last season. Left a lot on the table......I was all over that Henri head-fake. Lots of people fell for it in assuming a proficient recovery from shear in the mid latitudes, which is often a mistake. The most impressive impact last season in New England was the nor'easter in October. Nothing else was memorable for me.

The lack of activity in December was due to the compressed flow the big negative anomaly out west, and the transient neg NAO node later in the month. I think the imperfect phases later in the season were cyclogenesis defects that are prominent in the absence of high latitude blocking.

2009-2010, too. Its 2023-2024....my guess a moderate modoki el nino with above average snow from VA through ME.

Golf isn't my thing, so I'm out. I'll try for a more conventional GTG later in the fall.

Humidity really down...feels great.

Its tame if the east coast doesn't get a cat 3

Get his number?

Hopefully we can get this Pamela Anderson pattern during the cold season.

I haven't minded this summer at all to this point. Can't complain about some dews in July....it hasn't been bad.

Yea, my area, too. I measured .16" at midnight, and got drenched, thereafter. Will have to check the gage when I get home tonight.

I was surprised by how much it rained last night...poured for a while.

There are some signs that this la nina may try to go more central based than last year's, which was heavily eastern biased. That would likely mean a pretty good likelihood of a better December and worse mid season relative to last year. Caveat being that la nina should also be less prominent, which inherently makes ENSO more of a wildcard.

Yea, Cosgrove has been all over a subpar tropical season in terms of activity, but not necessarily level of impact, as of course it only takes one. He has been on quite a heater over the past few years. I strongly recommend his stuff.

I don't think this will be like last year's la nina in the sense that it will not be as prominent a player across the hemisphere...IOW, we may see more variation in the pattern. It isn't going to be as pervasive a driver.

It's going to be pretty modest next winter...its not a "game over" proposition. We just had a weak el nino a few years ago act more like an el nino...it can go both ways. That said, I wouldn't expect a monster mid atl snow season. Can't necessarily say the same for 2023-2024.

Count me out

I think the subsurface is just insurance against la nina going nuts.

No worries, do whatever gets your rocks off....judment free zone this day and age.

Here is one for @forkyforkto link in OT

Just about to the time of year when 80s are climo.

Yea, 2010-2011 was my primary ENSO analog...I agree, there. In hindsight, I feel like a moron for mixing up December and January considering that 2010-2011 with the epic January was so high on my list of ENSO analogs.

Yea, tomorrow will suck.

That's about the ceiling for this time of year...lay out on the naked and hope to view an ominous cloud that will look not so ominous as it makes it over the ORH hills on approach.

Yea, I don't get my rocks off by staring at fat men's sweat stains like some....this is fine by me.