40/70 Benchmark

Personally, I like the change so far....less high end cold, which is obnoxious, and less days of pedestrian snow cover in exchange for a higher frequency of extreme events. I'll take that trade off....keep the 5 days of 3" snow cover and give me the 2'+ blitz.

I buy that for 1995-1996, but 2010-2011 was actually pretty N stream dominant.

Yes, they have increased, but not as drastically as the mins. Just taking the overall mean temp makes it appear worse than it is for that reason.

I may be wrong on this, but I feel like global warming would have more dire consequences faster if it were not so heavily weighted in nighttime mins. This is why I feel like sometimes there is a contingent of folks that overstate and catastrophize the impact. I understand that eventually it will matter more, but this is probably why our snowfall hasn't suffered to this point (well, everyone's except mine)....the fact that it radiates to 15 instead of 10 on a clear night isn't exactly a deal-breaker. However, the increased insolation that is not emitted does in fact result in less snow cover via a larger window of time for melting.

I think at this point I'll take my chances on Kev's '38 redux.

Yes, this I agree with....all I meant. I never debated lower snow cover days....if they had said lower snowfall, then that would be incorrect....at least to this point.

I understand that...I know they meant snow cover days, which is correct. What I said was that if a warmer gulf stream is leading to warmer summers, then its due to warmer night time mins.

Yea, totally on board with this....but I am willing to bet that if you examined purely daytime max temps, the northeast is not leading the GW charge.

I do not buy that summers are getting warmer due to increased flow off of the ocean....if they are, then its almost entirely due to warmer nighttime lows. I could fathom that for winter...fine. At the end of the day, I feel as though much of our warming, at least here locally, is manifesting itself via milder nighttime lows. This article would make sense in that respect since it would be logical for more marine influence to contribute to a low of 14 at Logan during an arctic outbreak, as opposed to what would have been 12 40 years ago.

You need to either move, or find a new weather niche.

Yea, I remember hearing on the news that it would remain in the 70's, and then being surprised that it was already down to 70 a bit after midnight...got down to 66.0 IMBY....granted I radiate pretty well, but the night definitely didn't retain the heat as well as forecast even on a regional scale.

Possibly, but its not that easy to discern, as most of the global warming has manifested itself via warmer nighttime lows rather than daytime highs. Most, not all.... 1995-1996 certainly had greater positive snowfall anomalies in the mid atl, but I'm not sure 2010-2011 did....maybe in the northern mid atl...I know Philly did great, but a good portion of SNE approached 100".

I'd like to see the data supporting that....I find it hard to believe that the northeast US is warming faster than most of the rest of the globe.

Make sure the teeth are removed

You morbid SOB lol

Our area seems like its among the slowest.

Yea, I like a nice December, and then maybe a tougher stretch, hopefully after the holidays. The sea ice and SAI are factors.....the trouble is when people weigh them on an absolute scale...that is usually a fools errand within the context of seasonal forecasting.

I had about .56"RF yesterday and through early this AM.

Yes, and probably an at least somewhat tamer end of the season. Modified 2000-2001 works for me..we are due for more of an interior winter throughout the NE

Pull ups?

2000-2001 was a modoki, too....one of the better winters where I live right now, so like I said....more variability when its weaker.

While I do not think it will be a blockbuster season, I don't buy the rationale that this winter will automatically suck because of the la nina/+QBO couplet, assuming la nina remains weak.....at least not with respect to New England.

It isn't. I mentioned it, along with several other seasons, in one of my posts as support for a modoki el nino once this multi-season cold ENSO event concludes.

Note that last season, being a very heavily biased towards the east, featured a very mild December...and a colder mid season. This quoted material explains that relationship well. Of course, it didn't have the big ending that thought was possible due to (in my opinion) that very quick uptick in solar activity last season. But this is why I expect a better December this year and a more meager mid winter period relative to last winter.