I am not saying they should be universally ignored at this range, but in this case, given that that trend reversal is counter to the steadfast European suite and the GFS op, I am okay disregarding...for now.
I think this season will have a stronger ending.....that was westerly QBO and stronger la nina.
Obviously the middle portion won't be as prolific down here.
Boxing day was a really good event...it was the perspective that jaded me on it. That Miller B came out of nowhere and I had my heart set on the deformation zone, but never imagined it would trend SO FAR west....
@WinterWolf@Ginx snewx@weatherwiz
Are you guys still planning on coming Saturday? Not trying to be a PIA, but there are a few folks who are on the edge and want to know if enough are coming to make it worth it.
I know Garth, Jerry and @ScituateWX (Brian) are in...
On a seasonal level, its a no-brainer that it will be RNA in the means, but the trick is pinning down when the periods of volatility will be. I have missed on that so far.
Don't get me wrong.....I'm not saying to expect 60" in a month, but it has that kind of upside if it isn't too transient and/or we get some luck. 2011 we had the NAO hand off to the PNA in order to protract a very favorable two week stretch to a month. You need breaks for that to happen.
But this isn't a shock...2010 was a great ENSO analog this season.
That is why the block is key....the flow is no longer progressive and shearing. People often speak of blocking within the context of its impact on track, and rightly so, but its more than that.
Okay.
Yea, def agree regarding no lock...I guess I got the wrong idea. I saw someone mentioned delusional and assumed they were referencing your sentiment.