40/70 Benchmark

I did note in my write up that if it ever were able to successfully complete the EWRC, that is may really benefit from what was a high octane gulf stream eddy off of Fort Myers, which is what happened IMO....in addition to trough moving in unison with it and accentuating outflow. But at the end of the day, I just didn't think that it would be able to just "flip the switch" so soon after that terrain induced EWRC, and it did so about as proficiently will ever be observed. I saw all of the visual signs of it nearing completion when I posted the blog Tuesday night, but I just felt like it would just get caught up in that "stats quo" ..."looks better, but no increase in winds" situation. I was going to wait until Wed AM to do my final, but figured, "what fun is looking at the answers to the test before you release". I knew within about 2 hours my intensity forecast, along with the sw FL coast, was doomed.

Well, right, but I had it coming in at 115mph...that's a big miss. There were plenty of forecasts, that while not as aggressive as reality, were still decent. "F" for intensity, A+ for timing and locale.

I'll post my results later. I ended up really doing well on LF timing and location, but I was in your camp on incorrectly hedging against that late round of intensification. My "city of focus" was Fort Myers.

You wouldn't know but for the weenie reservoir tip at the top.

CFS looks mild, but not as warm as out west

I figured that to be the case when hearing so many had stayed. I was saying on social media that this would rival Katrina...even if it hadn't intensified IMO.

I can't get over the idiots playing in the surge in Fort Myers Beach around midday...wow. Anyone have a good RAD shot at point of landfall? Thanks

I think it just went out..

They probably factored that in to the surge forecast, I would think....

That's part of what I missed in expecting it to "only" come in as a cat 3. Its easy to lose sight of how impervious these things can grow to be to their surroundings. Amazing sequence over the past 12-24 hours....hope people got the hell out.

Completely agree. That is what I expected, though I knew this was possible. Yikes.

I agree its questionable whether the winds will ramp up much, but I don't think it really matters, unfortunately. That surge is going to be devastating. The wobble north may be good news for Fort Myers, anyway.

Interesting. I realized this was land induced, but did not realize that those type are usually quicker. I'll know why if I miss a round of intensification.

Here are my Final thoughts...for whatever that is worth haha https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/09/hurricane-ian-to-have-devastating.html

Often times, they just never regather that same initial, pristine structure and thus intensity (I call it the "skunked" look, with ragged CDO, etc)...other times, they end up even more ferocious, thereafter....Katrina was one such example.

Thanks for that graphic....I hadn't realized. Will use it.

If it remains impervious to the shear, then sure....tough to make that call, though. Obviously they should prepare for cat 4.

Truth be told, they probably are, too, but the fact of the matter is that lowering it isn't worth the risk of conveying the wrong message and having some let their guard down. Its relatively trivial in the grand scheme of things...

Right as it was emerging from Cuba earlier today, I thought that the disruption of its intensification may have meant that we wouldn't see an EWRC prior to LF in FL, however, it actually seems that said land interaction helped to trigger the cycle...which can happen. I am probably in the minority, but given that we are in the early stages of an EWRC with a large outer eye, shear is already beginning to impinge on the circulation and LF is a mere ~24 hrs away, I don't think that it will get much stronger. Main thing to watch for is how much the wind field can expand prior to LF, which will exacerbate surge. I had 130mph on my First Call as a peak intensity, and was nervous that was too conservative, but I hedged lower after seeing how long it took to get going in the NW Caribbean and factoring in the tenor of the season.

Looking at this, its def an EWRC IMO.

Sometimes interaction with land can help trigger them.

Its probably still trying to resolve some structural deficiencies that resulted from interaction with the higher terrain of Cuba.

Well, 1995-1996 was a la nina, 2009-2010 was a strong el nino.....

I think the interaction with Cuba was paradoxically bad news for FL because while weakening the system in the short term, it effectively expands the wind field like an EWRC would have and we are now less likely to see the max sustained winds lowered due to an actual EWRC. Just my two cents.....someone on the west coast of FL is in trouble.