40/70 Benchmark

Extracurricular...

Gee, I keep wondering to myself why in the world I check out of this place during the warm season....

There exist some notable differences between these two disparate types of la nina events. Here are a couple of schematics outlining these differences: Differences between east-based La Nina's & central-based La Nina's Figure A is east-based. Figure B is central-based DJF 500mb for East-based years: DJF Temps Ironically in east-based years JFM is colder than Dec. Dec is typically the warmest month in the east-based years, which runs counter to typical cold ENSO climo. JFM 500mb east-based years JFM Temps Compare all of that to central-based La Nina years: DJF 500mb DJF Temps December is the coldest month for central-based Nina's. One thing worth noting is not all East-based Nina's are frigid, as there is variability due to the relatively weak ocean-atmosphere coupling. This is because many east-based events, as is the case with modoki el nino events, are weaker. You can have warmth, especially if the event is weaker, and one such case is 2005-2006. Likewise, there were some weak modoki events that were fairly cold across the eastern US, such as 2000-20001.

March 2006 was very unlucky....cold and dry. Research actually shows that December is usually the milder part of east based seasons, as in this past winter...December is usually the coldest month in central based events.

Obviously its obscenely early to glean too much from that, but sometimes you can start to see some trends even this early.

Lots of warmth developing in the subsurface out west, but cold holding strong near S America....don't mind seeing that.

We def did not get the wild March that 2018 featured.

Yea, under 90mph would be tough....aside from maybe a good knuckleballer...

Bieber only throws low 90s...so didn't vintage Greinke in his prime. I opt for high velo, too, but you can succeed with great command, there just isn't the same margin for error.

Yep.

I'm guessing this month is similar to January 2021, and so many other months amidst the contemporary climate in that we end up above average mainly due to milder nights...although I do recall several legit freezes this month at my spot.

Interesting take....I wouldn't be angry if this worked out.

Pools open there?

I feel like that can be very beneficial for fans of winter in the east, given that weak phases of el nino and la nina are most favorable for cold and snow, as opposed to neutral or stronger ENSO events.

I live here, you don't.

We are about "due" from an anecdotal sequencing perspective...

Some momentum building for a third consecutive la nina next season. If that were to happen, history is not that bleak for us...its happened three other times: 1956-1957, 1975-1976 and 2000-2001.

I've noticed that folks aren't very mindful of the importance of elevation relative to surrounding environments....at the end of the day, that is the determining factor with respect to radiation; not absolute elevation. If you are at 1000' elevation and surrounded by 1500' topography, you are still going to radiate. Not saying that is the case per se at Beckett, though it maybe more nuanced. This is why elevated valleys are prime spots for retention....best of both worlds.

Well, my grass hasn't grown....so your growing season is fake.

I love that my area radiates well because I want to record freezes as late as I can in order to delay the growing season....get that as short as possible, as it means less chores.

28.8 at my place last night.....we radiate, we freeze.

Take...anything to delay SA.

How do you get a -NAO winter out of this? Dec 2021: 0.29 Jan 2022: 1.08 Feb: 1.68 March: 0.77 What am I missing? Also, you seem to be shifting the emphasis from a crap winter, to merely a positive NAO....maybe biased by your geography....but here in New England, we don't necessarily need a negative NAO in a la nina to do just fine. 1975-1976 and 2008-2009 are a couple of examples...both +QBO, as well.

There aren't any absolutes with respect to the QBO....its just a factor. Last season was a negative QBO with an eastern biased la nina, which was favorable for blocking, theoretically speaking.

I didn't ask for any seasonal calls from S Weymouth.