40/70 Benchmark

I def. wouldn't expect a repeat of Snowmageddon any time soon, but a similar type of ENSO event may be in the offing.

Why? I thinks even bolder to favor an active season, at this point...

I think it will. I don't think the polar domain will be particularly conducive this season, however, I do expect a favorable Pacific early on in the season...if we can get some NAO early on, then December could be very good.

Do you feel that there are some physical processes at play with respect to the linkage between the prior warm season's ACE and the overall tenor the following winter? I suspect that there are, but its difficult to postulate exactly what said phenomena are. My crude guess has to do with the ocean currents rolling forward into a certain set of ocean-atmosphere coupling(s) across the hemisphere.

We do not have a strong la nina...not sure where that is coming from. MEI is high, which means this particular cold ENSO event is well coupled with the atmosphere, but the ONI is NOT strong...its borderline weak- moderate at the moment. Yea, modoki la nina, as with el nino, is a different ballgame and applying stereotypical ENSO climo in that case is often a fool's errand due to disparate convective forcing schemes. Completely buy more of a modoki la nina this season, which likely means a more wintery December and milder mid winter season in the east. Beginning next spring into the early summer, I expect the strongest positive anomalies to shift west and be joined by some other positive anomalies trending southward from the N PAC, as the la nina decays, which will segue into a rather healthy modoki el nino next year...probably the most robust since 2009-2010, and 2002-2003 before that.

1966-1967 actually featured well above average snows in my neck of the woods, but its negated by the very paltry 1980-1981 season. 2003-2004 was warm neutral, so 2004-2005 was not technically a double dip el nino....FWIW.

Right, but as we saw last season, these are just probabilities and there are not guarantees.

Yes. 2000-2001 was more impressive for N ORH county...the pack was higher water content than 2014-2015, too.

Nor do I...was just saying that that is what will determine the ultimate tenor of the winter.

He had a death in the family last week, so that maybe why he's been more scare around here.

It was sprinkling outside in my area at like 1230am.

Marine influence on that SW flow must have rescued you....been well over 90 for 6 consecutive days here.

Bleh. Hope for a furnace over AK

This is where the upside lays this year...agree. The northeast can still do very well with this combo, as evidenced by the 2013-2015 stretch. PNA would determine whether its a taint-fest like 2018-2019, or its more of a snowier period, like 2013-2015.

Man, to be still 80 IMBY, which radiates fairly proficiently, past midnight is impressive. 85 KLWM at 1230am.

Yea, just wait and see. I heard the same crap last season and it ended up right where I thought it would...not that I'm perfect, but the consensus tends to get carried away with ENSO for a stretch.

99 should do it IMBY.

96

Already up to 93 here at ground zero.

La nina will be weak for winter, regardless of whether or not a brief moderate peak is achieved this fall. Yea, neg IOD is linked to la nina, but it's also linked to modoki el nino, which we are likely to see next year.

My theory why they did not link with the IOD, base upon this article, is that the 1995 la nina did not really get going until the fall and the 2000 event was a triple dip deal....and as cited above, the ENSO event needs to DEVELOP early in the summer in order to be most likely to induce an IOD respose, NOT be a one that his persisted all year. So, once again, snowman was right and this la nina likely is not coupled with the IOD. We could have some deviation from typical la nina climo this year.

It also makes sense that some of the la nina's that were kind of irregular from traditional la nina climo, such as 1995-1996 with the hyper active STJ and 2000-2001 with the huge ending, did not induce a concomitant IOD response, thus why the MJO likely strayed from traditional la nina favored phases.

"One may note that the El Niño in mode 2 evolves from the peak phase of La Niña and the Indian Ocean experiences a decaying process of basinwide cooling". Doesn't seem to be a coincidence that we usually have a modoki following a prolonged stretch of la nina.