40/70 Benchmark

I wasn't dry for all of NE. I had near 100".

This is OT....but I am pumped over this, so just a sneak preview into my thought process heading into next year. Here are the el nino seasons following multi year cool ENSO years: 1957-1958 1963-1964 1968-1969 1972-1973 (super el nino, so huge asterisk) 1976-1977 1986-1987 2002-2003 2009-2010 2014-2015 2018-2019

Yes...in terms of snowfall, just that it won't be horrible....not saying it promises a huge season.

30s in my area....IDK about down there.

I still think this big NAO block validates the idea that this is not going to be a rat season...its just some bad luck that it isn't baring fruit in terms of snowfall at this juncture, but looking back through data, I can't find any ratter seasons that were healthy la ninas and had a significant neg NAO in December. I know some will say 1989 and 2001, but they were cool neutral.

Doesn't have to be snow around here.....especially if its the NAO that caves first.

That is going to some enormous mass flux when that does indeed happen, and there is potential for a very large event.

Totally agree...zero doubt. The only way out in my mind if for either the NAO or RNA to relent a bit, which will eventually happen...just a matter of when. In the mean time, its like mother nature has us in a head lock and we are just waiting to be let go-

You mean the illusion that its a panacea?

Thing is, if it were a lock, then I would take some solace in that....but odds are it won't be a uniform distribution in the sense that the entire region will get it. That's why I just look past it.

Thanks, tiny snowcrazed Tim. God bless us, each and every one of us.

Why cancel it over snowshowers? GO

Well, he's not wrong, either. I'm bored at work just melting like a snowbank on NYC in the dead of winter.

First of all, even if they did cut west, front enders would mean more snow than this. Secondly, its not just a longitude thing....if the RNA or the NAO ridges were weaker, there would have been less of a gradient. Regardless, record RNA is difficult to overcome.

Hopefully back into drought territory next year when the el nino develops.

Its too bad that the NAO ridge happened to position itself just the perfect distance from that heat ridge to royally pork us with that meat grinder.

Something tells me he already knew the answer to that....man, he must have really wanted to troll to fire one is five bullets on that lol

TBH, get us passed the holidays, and I prefer the torch to this. Something hopefully gives after the New Year...either shift the longwave pattern that is cursing us with this shear axis, or join the NAO with the heat ridge and be done with it.

Jingle Bells, RNA smells, yet another shortwave laid an egg. We had yet another shot at another stray inch, and even that faded away, HEY! Jingle Bells, RNA smells, the fun is always five days AWAY! Oh what fun, it is to track, heights in Oregon sub four-fift-ey...Hey! Record troughs on the west coast, heat ridges in the south, one more shortwave gets sheared to grits, and I'm gonna plant an oozie in my mouth, HEY! Jingle Bells, RNA smells, rain finds us as snow runs AWAY! Oh what fun it to track, Please put me out of my Miser-ray!

At this point, give me a damn inverted trough with a great big bow on it.

Hung right over my head.

What we are left with is analyzing soundings all day like antisocial, virgin internet sleuths in search of that elusive stray snow shower on xmas....which is great for the 12 municipalities that get it, meanwhile, back at the ranch.... the other 95% of us are met with mother nature's hairy, grizzled rear-end under the mistletoe.

I don't think its going to torch anytime soon....later in January, yes.....but that is a good 3 or so weeks off. I'm just tired of the parade of paraplegic SWs that are castrated by the RNA en route to the NE. "Oh, but there are so many of them...one will pop out of that chair and walk again"......tic toc, tic, toc