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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, it spent most of the month in the circle of death...but the monthly composite looked an awful lot like what you would expect if it were impacting. lol
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I created a lot of confusion by implying the MJO influenced November very much because it did not. However, I don't think its a coincidence that a lot of the long range guidance has the gradient look that is featured in MJO phase 7 during la nina composite, as the MJO reinvigorates in said phase.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was driving....sorry. You were right about November. I should have checked before making that assertion. However, I stand by the fact that the MJO should definitively have some signifiant influence moving forward in the month of December while in phase 7.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have never implied that you don't know what you're talking about, but I think sometimes you get extremely focused on one changing aspect of the atmosphere, namely the Hadley Cell expansion, and it biases your perception of everything else.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    What is lost on you is that the pattern in place has been consistent with an MJO wave in the marine continent during la nina. Launching vulgarities doesn't make you right.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I knew you'd say that. We'll agree to disagree that the MJO has zero contribution to the N Hem pattern anymore.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    MJO coherency IS your point whether you realize it or not because you are implying that it is not leaving an imprint on the N hemispheric pattern, when in fact it has been. It has been stuck in phase 6 for awhile now...and it is no coincidence that the the Nov 2021 composite: Looks an awful lot like the composite for phase 6 of the MJO during la nina ENSO:
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Two weeks from today at 3pm. See you guys in a couple of weeks to talk about the white xmas and onset of a great pattern.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I could live with that
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    My point is that the MJO has been coherent. I think this is like the HC phenomenon in that yes, it can be reduced, but not eradicated...how much is it muted is the question. Not much throughout November.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    SWFE are nice storms
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    It will end up as such.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yep. If it's doing that Monday, then maybe worry. 00z EPS will probably be fine
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Ignored.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nice run.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    That pattern for the past month or so has strongly resembled the phase 6 la nina composite...don't think that is a coincidence.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe it doesn't do much in phase 8, but it should clear 6 and take on a more phase 7 like look at the least.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think it will be enough.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think obessesing over every nuance of nina at this point is losing sight of the forest through the trees....just watch that forcing and make sure it moves east.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree on close win for Buf.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Heh... Mac never even seen snow...yikes
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Region 4 is in la nina territory...coldest anomalies are centered eastern half of region, but that is not strongly east based...its still basin wide. Take a look at years like 2005, that had negative anomalies relegated to eastern zones. I wish the modoki site would open back up...it assigns EMI index.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Those look like dailes... look at weekly anomalies
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Now? No way....manageable assaults during December...just like I said. PV will be fine this month, though
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